-uksnow-
-
Posts
548 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by -uksnow-
-
-
your undercutting low , which goes against all teleconections indicated by NOAA as regards trough amplification and longwave pattern ,MJO is set to change phase also . dont see it happening
I never said it was going to happen but there so far has been a trend away from blasting the low through and sending more energy under on the 12z's
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=96&code=0&mode=0&carte=0
check out the GEFS, even at t96 there is huge variability on the synoptics, make of it what you will.
-
perhaps the large bock of heights to the south knows as the AZ high might stop that , like it does 99% of the time ?
Sorry, might stop what exactly?
-
Not trying to be smart here...but how do we know the UKMO hasn't under deepened the low?
We don't, its just well know GFS often overdoes low pressures so im obliged to side with the UKMO that has verified alot better than the GFS the whole winter.
-
0.5res has another band coming up friday, not making much inroads though
-
Have to see if ECM supports this, but with further adjustment south, could be another snow event?
GFS has none of it (when does it ever?) and goes full steam ahead with SW'erlys
-
Big difference between UKMO and GFS at t96.
UKMO has almost got an undercut, I think the GFS has over deepened the low again with a 15mb difference between them
GFS:
UKMO:
Icelandic wedge sending it south
-
Is the area of developing PPN associated with the lower thickness/trough swinging up?
-
It may be bright and sunny but everything is dormant. The grass isnt growing, the trees are not budding, it may as well be the the middle of January still.
It does nothing to lighten the mood to go outside expecting a vaguely mild light breeze and getting your lungs sandpapered by a bitter easterly. Out door work is on hold with bills piling up. This isnt fun anymore.
Are you talking out door work i.e. Building a house for a living or outdoor work for gardening? As anyone complaining about gardening, its really not that bad, i spent most the day out there last weekend and alot of the easter weekend, just gotta get moving and its fine, man up everyone
-
Has The Ecm Frozen on Metoceil?
Doesn't start till 7pm, were in BST now.
-
UKMO has little bit of snow for SE and South on Thursday - finally.
-
UKMO has little bit of snow for SE and South on Thursday - finally.
-
06z ensembles continue the upward rise as one would expect for April
I must sound like a broken record i know, but several days ago the mean first rose above -5 at the 5th of April, then the 7th of April, now its gone the 9th!
Remarkable eh, but upwards trend yes, looks nice.
-
anyone looking for snow, the 06z pummels us this thursday
-
240H Western Ireland and Scotland?
Whole of Ireland, Western Scotland and Midlands southwards of England have -4 uppers, N + E Scotland and N England have -2
-
I see the CET has sneaked below 3C now for March, impressively cold!
More impressive, look at those dew points!
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=current;type=mind
-
is their actually a genuine realistic chance of this coming of because it is half term and would actually like to go out hahah
Yes there is, ECM, GFS and UKMO all hinting it, wont be able to pinpoint locations yet as they all have different North-South boundaries but there is a genuine chance yes.
-
GFS 12z ensembles
Lots of scatter from the 8th onwards on all the ensembles at the same point precipitation increases slightly that could signal a return to winds from a westerly direction bringing milder and at times unsettled weather
Could being the operative word, as what would seem more likely is lower pressure dropping down from the NE, bringing lower thickeness and perhaps more ppn.
-
-
Yep ECM brings this up (ref to what SK is talking about)
-
Both Op and Control are in agreement about the potential for something from the NE at 192hrs, FI i know, but they are both singing from the same sheet.
Op
Control
Looking through the rest of the ptbs there is general support for this with some v.cold runs and very few mild runs at this timeframe. It's not over yet!
Oh and i found a beauty for Purga:
-
Looks like its turned to snow in Channel Islands according to my meteo group app. Any confirmation?
Netweather Extra has it all as rain for channel islands.
-
ECM is setting up another easterly at t120
GFS full London ensemble
And the mean stays at or extremely close to -5 up until gone the 8th now, its rapidly being extended!
ECM at 144 has dropped its idea of such low thickness moving up from france however there are still differences with the UKMO at same time period
More energy being flung up from the low on the ECM.
-
A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing
GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland
Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many
Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier
That's upto April 12th
I really do want it to warm up for you just so you dont have to chase mild FI charts every run, as thats the only time they are ever appearing at the moment! However, given the GFS's performance this winter and the fact the meto think its tosh post 144 (and even before?) i'm far from convinced by it yet.
Look at the difference between GFS and UKMO @ only 96hrs
GFS:
UKMO:
Given that the patterns dont match at even that timescale, and the UKMO is alot higher in the verifcation stats than GFS at the moment, i fail to see a way out of this easterly phase yet. The chaos theory would cause the pattern post this timeframe to be largely wrong, it may be similar but i cant see it being right in HI RES, meaning that when it drops to low res, what hope to we have!
Keep up the mild hunting
-
Just a little update with the Chicks - 10 hatched out of 18 eggs, not a bad turn out, one batch of eggs was infertile but I guess that's a risk you take getting them off ebay with transport etc!
Ed
South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion 27/03/13 18z ------>
in Regional
Posted
Drove through a light snow shower in horndean just now!