-uksnow-

Currently temp 12.4, DP 8.1, Humidity 69%, Pressure 997.9, Wind East

Not clutching straws at all - it will change right up to the actual event, NAE has been out done by GFS ppn charts in the past, i say wait till fergie tells us MO's view on it later

Hmm, latest NAE keeps anything significant away from the South for Monday

The warning for the south has been updated as of 1136 today: " A spell of sleet and snow is expected, starting in the early hours of Monday morning in southwest England, and affecting southern England more widely by the end of the morning. Snow will be accompanied by a strong easterly wind which will accentuate the very cold feel. Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow could occur quite widely over southern counties, with a risk of 5-10 cm over Dartmoor. The public are advised to be aware of the risk of localised disruption to travel. "

Well in for a crap summer?!

Chio, to those of us south of the M4 - surely we do not want this system moving a whole lot further north than its currently projected? Or will that only intensify our snow..

Thanks Ian, are are any updates on totals or is the concencus to stick with what the warning says at the moment with 3-5cm over hills if I remember correctly?

Woooops

Never said it did squire! Especially as i live right on the south coast..

However by midnight monday theres still jack all precip on the UK!

ECM ans GFS at 72 are virtually identical in te position of the low!

edit: also quite funny, added it up and in total Metcheck gives my location 22cm of snow between monday and tuesday

I have to say - as someone living on the south coast a chart like this at only 84hrs away is something im fairly excited by! Last few runs seems to have brought a northwards shift on the overall track of the low

Ooooh its close isnt it, could be ok though - were holding on to -6 uppers across as large swath of the UK and even -8 towards Norfolk and EA.

No, roughly 1500m

yes - a lengthened ecm type spell looks to be coming the form horse even through the minor models - fairly remarkable if it all comes off. Does anyone else after seeing such a low mean temp predicted on the GFS ensembles recently now thing .... "pffft only -11 mean? pathetic, i want colder " ... no? just me? Ok

Well jolly good that the UKMO and GFS are finally in agreement - down to 60 hrs - is that a record for disagreement at only 2 and a half days away!? You can guarentee one thing now... ECM will go off the boil tonight!

Well yes.. my interpretation is that we do or i wouldnt have said it GFS has an already sinking high place very closed to NW UK,, i'd say the only real simialrly between GFS and ECM is that they both bring us cold.. once again ECM appears to bring more prolonged cold.

Ok so now we have three different solutions at 144!

and looks fantastically like the gfs for same time period...

GME has the shortwave aswell so far out of the 12z is GME + GFS vs UKMO ...

Shaping of UKMO's version of the low at T60 compared to the GFS there is a huge differences its silly... UKMO has far more energy dwindling behind to the West of the low - GFS doesnt - still not there yet are we.. Edit: Though again its a small improvement on the 00z run - can it really be wrong at only 60 hours out? or can the GFS? im so confused

Haha, sorry. Should have stated better for cold - I'm easy either way

To be honest its not a bad High res - alot better than the 6z and prev runs by 186 whole of UK is in -8 uppers

Thought I'd stumbled on the gardening forum then... ECM out to 144 on wetter and has a better shaped low more inclined to sliding than UKMO at same time period I.e less rounded more elongated