-uksnow-

1.3 Degrees -2.5 windchill Apparant temp: -3.3 DP: -3.8

Is that based on this graphic? http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec As thats the ECM.

But the problem is, we cant change the weather, its going to do what it will do and most of the excitement of the MOD thread is just chasing synoptics that arent the 'norm', as lets face it, the norm has been pretty dire the last few years, so seeing such depth and length of cold out to the end of March is something thats fascinating to alot of us on here, and if theres no warmth to chase then we may aswell deal with what we have - exceptional late cold!

Colder uppers remain in place longer on the 06z compared to 00z Gavin, i simply dont think spring will happen this year!

You can see just why the low in the atlantic disrupts and heads under, there is nothing in the mid atlantic to push it on through! Jet stream way south

Astonishing

As I don't fish, could you explain to me how the easterly winds effect the fishing?

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=TT850&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=228 You can view the 12z GEM run past 144 hours here, it was a cold run a la ECM!

Probably not, lucky that chart is for April then! Anyhow GEM 12z was good, follow it on past 144 and its a very cold run again, cold air retreats like the ECM at 216ish and seems to be heading back by 240... View it here: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=TT850&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=228

Well that was some ECM! oh, Gavvvvvvinnnn look at this!

Yup, another snow event 36 hours after the first?! Largely -2's with continetal flow and low DP's

Gav, I enjoy your posts but come on look at the spread there and also the number of runs prolonging the cold, as Matt H said, the GFS ens have been playing catch up all winter, this is far for sorted yet as seen by the colder theme brought on by the 12z's so far after this mornings cold wobble - I'm not saying cold will win as I simply don't know at the moment and it's got to end sometime, but there is alot of runs to go before we know the situation of the end of the weeks potential snow event! All eyes on the ECM about to roll out..

Current temp now 0 degrees, Windchill of -4.1, Apparant temp of -5.0, DP -3.0! I love Britain! Had snow blowing in the wind all day, probably peaked in intensity at 0.4/10 haha. -eded-

And here comes the Friday snow event

I wouldnt say it's as you were from the GFS, it has backtracked slightly This at 102 from 00z 12z Low is 5mb weaker, and alot flatter rather than dartboard'esque, it also appears to be developing a shortwave off the mothership low, prolonging the cold and signalling more trough disruption than previous run. And we know the GFS wont backtrack in one go, but i firmly believe the low will bring another snow event next weekend and slide on under at this stage Also, UKMO @96 Not perfect, but better than this mornings (allowing for the 12hr later output) with more energy heading into Iberia

ECM mean has strong support for undercutting lows later this week, perhaps these will affect more of southern Britain this time.

Definate snow threat from the SW, 168 has -4 uppers straddling south coast w/contintal flow and beautifully aligned low Edit: I say perfect, but at 192 it nearly gives the Channel Islands another whalloping!

Yep, I'd imagine its because the flow isn't directly off the sea

At 90 hrs on the GEFS ensembles, there is fairly good support for a slightly deeper low down near Iberia, fair few runs keep at as a 995/990mb low ala UKMO rather than the the flabby 1000mb low the op predicts, ptb 10 takes it down to 985mb. There is however a fair spread in the positioning W-E of the low at this time

Better wrap up warm guys! March the 20 what'th?!

That's the exact reason why he is quiet - his job isn't to update us!

This from my sister in Birmingham, not all bad. Anyhow, another very cold ECM run, would be quite snowy for the south in its latter frames

The op ^ - in my eyes, not huge similarities, low not undercutting half as well, but at 7 days away is to be expected, clearly there is some support for the op, i just said the mean seems fairly distorted, indicating there are several other conflicting options. -eded-

ECM mean at 168 fairly distorted - have to wait for graphical representation but doesnt seem to follow the op with oodles of support

Its the swear filter - doesnt like his name.