-uksnow-

Clearly a fair number of options from the ECM ens tonight 120 mean: 144 mean: 168 mean: The synoptics on the mean even at only 120hrs away become quite 'muted'.

Well I don't know if this bears any reference to the shaping of the low come Friday but it doesn't look to be the same shape as the UKMO 12z output today! To be expected I guess

AWD - we can expect anything at this range, why we should expect an all rain event is beyond me, but as rightly said we obviously need to wait to the nearer time frame Mapantz - Thats the whole point! the block always is underestimated so we are likely to see small shifts south towards the time?!

Sorry but that is an extremely silly thing to say imo, you only have to look at the recurring theme of this winter of weak heights to the NE crushing Lp's advancing from the west, causing them to slide under - and every time the GFS has had this wrong, being dragged kicking and screaming into line by the Euro's, you wait and watch, this coming week (it may take until a mere 72 hrs away from the low sliding) the GFS will come round to the Euro's train of thoughts, im not saying it will pan out exactly like the UKMO 120 + 144 charts show (which by the way, would give an all snow event away from the very southwestern tip of the UK) but certainly it will look alot different to how the GFS is portraying it now!

Quite cool sitting working and looking out the window and now noticing the clouds are moving the complete opposite direction to what they were this morning, low has obviously passed now so winds are coming from a NW'erly direction.

GME slower with the advancement of cold air heading south on its 12z 0z: 12z: Scotland and N'ern England still looking 'Good' though.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ - For rain radar - you can pay to get precipitation type aswell Or even better use the netweather radar, £3.49 (i think) for a month of precipitation type or free for just preciptation location.

Im never quite sure what thread i fit into being directly in CS England, as the MO keep my region under the 'South East' - so i post in both SW and SE thread.. hope you dont mind Anyhow, PPN just reached my region, temp has dropped 0.6 degrees in last ten minutes currently at 6.4, DP 3.5 and apparant temp at 4.5. Not expecting anything wintry.

PPN just coming into my region, temp has dropped 0.6 degrees in about 10 minutes, DP sitting at 3.4 and apparant temp at 4.6

Google it! I saw an article on it about a week ago in the news saying how it needs very specific conditions and normally happens in N. America - I'll have a looky after lunch to see if I can find it.

There are obviously a few other options not supporting the undercut but the ECM mean at 120 is good for an undercut - clearly being watered down by those fewer runs that dont support it. Mean @ 120:

and as if Scotland wouldnt have had enough snow already.. ouch!

No ones saying its going to come off though, its just one of the options that has been put out to us to view from the 12z's - we all know what caveats apply, we're simply discussing the option and what it could bring should it verify.

Seems like a snow to rain event for south of the M4, and snow to snow for north of the m4 144-168 of the ECM.

UKMO @ 144 going under..

Be very interesting to see where this sits within the ensembles, the shaping of the low at 132 of the GFS compared with its 06z run is hugely different, much more flat and sliding under..

UKMO develops a shotwave to the North of scotland at the same time GFS gives a good snow event for NE'ern england/scotland on tuesday :o!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21810696 thats impressive!

First of the 12z's is out (GME/DWD) Very good shaping to the low at 72hrs out Bringing in nice cold uppers by tuesday lunchtime to eastern england, heading SW...

First of the 12z's is nearly fully out now (GME/DWD) Out at 66 hrs Nice sausage shaped low! Lets see what the GFS etc brings.. Edit: 'Nice' - for cold that is..

GFS 18z has definately taken a lunge towards the Euro's

HEY! I'm just as interested in the weather as anyone on here but this thread is hardly the life and sole of the party tonight so sorry!

You on PS3?

Well as I said earlier in the mod thread, there is no warmth on the horizon do were going to have to make do with what we get, and the output at the moment is stunning synopticslly speaking so if spring isn't springing yet then enjoy what you can of the current weather.

He said that?! Expand!