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dave48

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Everything posted by dave48

  1. dave48
    Video from last night. TURN UP THE VOLUME.
  2. dave48
    Best of luck to everyone after a storm. I hope tonight delivers for the many rather than the few. After what we had here last night, I am counting myself lucky but would of course love a second helping. A few video grabs from last nights action. A truly fantastic storm and the best in many years. For close lightning, possibly the best in memory.
  3. dave48
    Must have caught over 200 strikes on camera so far and that wouldnt be half, lightning every 2-10 seconds here for last 30 minutes.
  4. dave48
    By far the worst storm I have ever seen here. Incredible.
  5. dave48
    Lightning visible from here for last 15 miniutes, very distant.
  6. dave48
    Great spot. Seemed to have quite a good handle on the timing and the shape there. Hopefully it is also correct in moving the activity up through the SW this evening/over night!
  7. dave48
    To reassure anyone worried about models and precip placement. There are storms currently breaking out across extreme NW France that are not on this mornings WRF 5KM. Just shows the volatility. Models can easily miss cells or have them out of place by hundreds of miles. Edit: Radar grab of said cells.
  8. dave48
    A very notable event indeed coming up. Have been following plumes for 7 years now and this one certainly stands out as quite an impressive set up. There is certainly widespread potential for strong/severe storms all over the place. The one thing I have learnt about these events is they never go quite as predicted and I certainly wouldn't count anyone out yet. Best of luck to everyone hoping to see a storm. I am looking forward to this one.
  9. dave48
    Initition expected from 7pm onwards for northern France, could be later though, several cells ongoing in SW.
  10. dave48
    Latest 'high res' radar sw France http://forums.infoclimat.fr/topic/84385-suivi-du-temps-dans-le-sud-ouest/page-4
  11. dave48
    For those interested, Keraunos are covering the storms in France below: http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2014/juin/copie-de-suivi-de-lactivit%C3%A9-orageuse-du-**-mai-2014.html Things starting to get going in the far south, expecting activity to pep up in the north of France this evening.
  12. dave48
    Always good to see, first spot of the day here. Nice bit of mid level instability on show. Edit: Apologies for the angle!
  13. dave48
    The potential is certainly there for some notable storms through tonight and tomorrow. To add to the views of others, these plume setups rarely happen quite as expected. To go back to just a few weeks agp, north Wales saw some of the strongest storms in that region in many years, while the focus was on other areas. I am looking forward to seeing how things begin to develop over France this evening. Best of luck to all of those after a storm, I think a few of us could do very well out of this.
  14. dave48
    Close thunderstorm here, loud thunder and lightning
  15. dave48
    I am honestly surprised by the extent of the BBC's ramping on this one...I don't see the potential for widespread active thunderstorms tonight. I am looking forward to being proven wrong of course! Tomorrow does, however, look pretty good. Estofex have their forecast out now, a severe threat for parts in their opinion.
  16. dave48
    Very impressive sferic returns from the line of storms in Wales, very promising.
  17. dave48
    Seemed the stream dropped out. Too many trees... Still coverage of the cell here as it cycles: http://www.kmbc.com/news/watch-live-severe-weather-coverage-from-kmbc-9-news/25684390 So many chasers on TVN!
  18. dave48
    Tornado just seen on cam below, currently repositioning. http://www.severestudios.com/player-full/tim.purington/ Looks to be growing in size, could become a wedge... Live coverage here http://www.kmbc.com/news/watch-live-severe-weather-coverage-from-kmbc-9-news/25684390
  19. dave48
    Those cells NW of London are very discrete and must look fantastic. Scanning twitter but no photos so far.
  20. dave48
    Was just going to post that up! :lol: Clear focus for development there, temps/dp's getting close to where they need to be for some decent enough instability. Warnings on twitter from Liam dutton and others for heavy showers/T storms this afternoon.
  21. dave48
    WRF wants to produce a band of 600/700 odd CAPE based on surface temps of about 18/19 and dp's around 12/13. Stansted currently 14/12, Cranfield 13/12 so could be something in that. Convergence also visible on http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ Will be interested to see if and where any storms do form today along that area of focus.
  22. dave48
    I do like the 'predictability' that comes with the LP driven sunshine/showers setup compared with spanish plumes so hopefully this will come off. As you say, too early yet to bank this one, however. GFS has a fairly tight group supporting an increase in pressure as the week goes on followed by a decrease at the end of the week. ECMWF presently models a less intense low that wants to move more to the south as opposed to the GFS GFS: ECMWF: Exactly how this plays out will determine the extend of the instability over the weekend as well as the wind direction guiding as to the areas most likely to be affected. It will be an interesting one to watch over the next few days, tomorrow we will get an idea of which side the UKMO favours.
  23. dave48
    Very heavy rain and one rumble of thunder...takes this year to 5 days with thunder here. EDIT: Second loud boom.
  24. dave48
    Awaiting the squall line, should come through here in the next 20 minutes or so. You can really see the low level convergence below. www.xcweather.co.uk Edit: An observation, Winds still from a N direction here, with the clouds rushing south. Will be interesting to see it change as the line goes through.
  25. dave48
    Having done some arm chair storm chasing of late watching the action over in the states I certainly feel ready for some storms over here. As has been mentioned the cooler upper air/lower heights associated with the low moving up from the continent on Sun/Mon will create some weak instability that could allow a few thundery showers to become embedded in the general showery regime. Looks diurnal in nature. GFS and ECMWF currently pretty happy with that evolution. GFS: ECMWF:
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