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dave48

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Everything posted by dave48

  1. dave48
    If I was in the SE, I wouldn't leave it, always more favourable on an averages basis IMO...But as I say, my opinion and Macro theory for Micro application, so not really that sound, but in the long run I guess it works.
  2. dave48
    Storms seem as likley in the east or west, north or south tomorrow evening...Could be some crackers though, well organised, lots of lightning. NMM take below. The met office model is a more western affair but then again, in the year or two since the met office site update, I am yet to see it model plume precip correctly even an hour or two in advance. The signal is powerful storms, where they will be remains to be seen.
  3. dave48
    Severe Thunderstorm anyone?
  4. dave48
    Couple of models (Hirlam, Euro4, UKMO) going for a fair bit of precip coming into southern parts and then further north very early tomorrow morning, what do we think about that in terms of thunderstorms vs just heavy rain, especially if cold front is revised further west? WRF NMM goes for initiation over western UK later on thursday as opposed to earlier advection from south... Edit: Thunderstorms initiated in southern Biscay, same or different impulse?
  5. dave48
    Cap Breach north east of Cheltenham.
  6. dave48
    Spectacular clouds this evening, visiting family in Wiltshire, some great altocumulus/virga around
  7. dave48
    Potential for a really fantastic week for storm/heat lovers. Ensembles for southern parts now showing *mean* values close to 20 at 850 and some solid cross model agreement. I have generally found that values of 15 and greater can provide some great stuff so some really wide potential for people all over the UK with this setup. A fun few days coming up, watching how long the heat hangs on for and where and when gets the best thunderstorms. I hope it lives up to expectations.
  8. dave48
    Yes I remember watching live and a few of the players got a fright from a strike directly overhead!
  9. dave48
    They were really good, happened to be down in Brighton at the time so a direct hit. I remember it being quite frustrating because in that case the trough didn't do the business the day before as was forecast and everyone was getting pretty frustrated but finally the following day the CF cut through and then it all went mad in the SE.
  10. dave48
    GFS Ensemble for SE has been improving over the last two days re end of next week, mean now at peak of 13, control & op much better, peaking at 15+ Can't recall a system that delivered 15+ uppers that didn't have fairly good thunderstorm activity with it. Could well trend to one of those borderline solutions though... Looks pretty good at this stage though, ECM & GFS seem pretty consistent with it anyway.
  11. dave48
    Hi, Nice shots! Looks to me like a Whales Mouth formation to be very specific. The picture at the very bottom is the give away as you note it occurs just after the leading edge of the storm passes. Example below with info on how they form too: http://tstmphotography.blogspot.co.uk/2010/07/whales-mouth.html Below is a photo from 2008, of a less dramatic whales mouth formation than yours that I took over Bristol
  12. dave48
    live tornado for anyone fast enough.
  13. dave48
    'Tornado Trackers' Stream on TVN, NW Oklahoma well worth a look...
  14. dave48
    Something very nice going up to my east, keep an eye out salisbury.
  15. dave48
    Great pics, def supercell in my opinion. Has it all, radar sig, right mover and your pictures only add to it. Well played! Pic below is the storm in its infancy.
  16. dave48
    Great shot there. Watched that cell grow to the east of my location, ten miles or so away and then move north. Could become severe/sup. Edit: Just looked at that again, overshooting top??? What do people think, developing supercell?? It looks nice on radar.
  17. dave48
    Impressive cell, very discrete, visible to the east over Amesbury. Had gone up quite rapidly.
  18. dave48
    Really need this system coming up through the west to organise itself a bit more, this cluster is only producing occasional high based thunder.
  19. dave48
    Thunder here. The fourth storm of the day!
  20. dave48
    Just had the closest lightning bolt I have experienced! I thought it had calmed down a bit then out of nowhere an extemely close strike. Just saw the flash and instant boom.
  21. dave48
    It was a very busy night here. Have had about 4 and a half hours of thunderstorms since midnight. Not had much sleep! Storm ongoing now. Been rumbling away for an hour and ten minutes. Quite high based thunder, occasional lightning. Didn't match the previous night for intensity but still impressive.
  22. dave48
    One to watch in SE, one of the cells is quite discrete, may or may not take on more severe characteristics. It coud just merge in to the line though.
  23. dave48
    We have done well out of this, 2 hours now! Had a very close one here that cut the power for a while.
  24. dave48
    Lightning on the southern horizon now.
  25. dave48
    Sky here now filled with Alt Cas.
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