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dave48

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Everything posted by dave48

  1. There is a cluster of cells forming in Lyme Bay at the moment already showing some strong precip values.
  2. A relatively nice setup for the time of year, certainly could be a cracker a bit later in the season. Met Office modelling precip moving up from the channel to the UK overnight, labelling it as 'scattered and occasionally thundery showers move north during the early hours'. Likewise between Monday and Thursday they mention the possibility of 'heavy and thundery showers/bands of rain' The models seem pretty undecided as usual on who/what/where/when.
  3. Small thunderstorms here last night and this morning, the one this morning would be the same as Andy mentioned earlier. Three thunder days already this year...Something must be wrong!?
  4. Just noticed an extremely robust anvil just passing to my west, radar indicates it is over bath/bristol. Nice discrete cell with mammatus on the back side. Also had what looked like an overshooting top. Possible LT supercell? Lightning Wizard Composite certainly favours pos supercell formation.
  5. Would agree with Supacell on this. Definite risk tonight. I'm not a huge fan of winter set ups but this does look like one to watch. You would think there would be a gusts risk for sure, how much lightning activity is always difficult.
  6. Happy new year everyone! I was just hit by the south west storm, can confirm some impressive lightning and plenty of thunder too. Most impressive was the hail, the best I have ever seen, which for many won't be that impressive but for wiltshire, not bad. Great start to 2014! Pictures below.
  7. Really enjoyed what I have seen so far. Thank you for posting it on here! Starting to think about next years storm season now...
  8. Can confirm strong looking CB's too my south now. Showing clearly on radar, just need the sun to go down now...
  9. Would agree with you Panayiotis that tomorrow's potential looks excellent. A nice unstable airmass spreads over the UK. Further to that, tops to good levels, this is especially true for the time of year. The key bit here is the sheared enviroment with the jet spreading over the UK. Helicity further indicating the potential for cells to become well organised and potentially supercellular. All in all tomorrow will be a good day for storm watching, with the potential for some decent storms.
  10. Torrential rain and pea sized hail observed here over the last hour. No thunder yet though. Have been caught in this streamer but skies clearing now.
  11. Have to admit I was caught out by the big storms we had here at the start of the month so will be keeping a closer eye on this. As has already been mentioned, the paramaters are good, especially for so late in the season. This has been a decent year for 'plume type' set ups. It must be about 4 that I saw over in Tunbridge Wells before I moved back over here. 3 of those produced decent storms.
  12. A bit late and not the best video but just one I caught as the storm approached on Thursday night. It was certainly very electrically active. It was a fantastic hour and the best storm I have seen for years.
  13. Great, great storm! The best lightning display for years, I counted over 20 flashes in just one minute at the height of it. Watched the anvil coming up from the south west and then loud booming thunder and even a close cg as it went through. The odd flash now.
  14. Frequent blue lightning to my south west, anvil lighting up several times a minute.
  15. Hoping for a direct hit in the next 20 minutes. Storms looking good.
  16. We haven't had too many 'sunshine and heavy showers' type days this year, especially here in Kent. Easy to forecast at least compared to 'plume type' setups. Would expect these showers to get more electrically active over the next few hours. Great day for chasing across Wales, SW and Midlands...Some good pictures to come I hope from those spotting or chasing. I think this does a decent job of summing up coverage.
  17. Lots of rain here, 10-15 rumbles and 1 flash of lightning.
  18. http://www.keraunos.org/ Upgraded forecast for extreme storms for NE France, first I have seen from them, think you are in a good spot mate to catch the edge.
  19. Heavy Echos across the channel now showing sferic returns.
  20. Developments across NW France and Biscay looking good. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Storms leaving France being dubbed an MCC, haven't seen one of those in France since 2010.
  21. I know this is the UK convective discussion but important to see that things to our south are going as planned, radar may be of interest to some. Looking nice.
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