dave48

Glad to see there were a few lively storms around today as expected. Met Office forecast precip last night did pretty well with today, as did the Net weather NMM high res model, which was quite accurate in showing the instability in the affected areas. Edit: As I said last night, still surprised estofex missed the area of activity.

Certainly the potential for a few lively thunderstorms tomorrow (Thursday), early afternoon for parts of the midlands and north east. Edit: Surprised ESTOFEX haven't given the aforementioned regions a '15% probability' area.

Tomorrow looks interesting, certainly a well sheared environment and some favourable conditions for anything that does get going. GFS and ECMWF still playing around with a thundery plume out in FI for next week. Different evolutions at the moment. ECMWF below is earlier in its evolution with the low staying closer to the UK and pushing the plume through quickly. The GFS is slower with a more southerly position for the low, bringing the plume later in the week.

Now you see it, now you don't! 12Z sends it all over the continent. A graze from the 12 degree uppers on its way.

Loving the ECMWF at 240h at the moment, 850hpa temps of 20 +. We all know what that would mean!

Nice high based storm there, great shot.

Latest GFS has binned the potential for next Thursday, following the ECMWF/UKMO in the flatter pattern. Currently has surface based potential for Friday.

The GFS painting a nice picture there with the NMM, going for something even better, MLCAPE between 400-700 in a well sheared environment. Certainly the potential for a good light show. At the moment, ECMWF not in agreement with a much flatter more zonal pattern. Met office also has a different idea. These set ups are complex and rarely well forecast even a day or two in advance. Will certainly be watching the models over the weekend.

Very thundery looking skies here in Kent, lots of mid level cloud, with towers mixed in, no rain has reached the ground yet here.

Yes looks like some elevating storms have hit the coast during the night, possibly more to come during the morning, the met office forecasting some heavy showers across, dorest/wiltshire and parts of the west country. Very active on Met Office ATD. I bet that was a great storm over the IOW last night.

A quiet start to the convective season this year in the south east. Clutching at straws, GFS is modelling a 'plume' to graze the UK this time next week. ECMWF not in agreement at the moment. Something to watch at least over the weekend.

Very sad news. I always enjoyed watching them on Storm Chasers. There can be no doubt they made a great contribution to the hobby and the science. There are some nice tributes on www.stormtrack.org to add to all of the above. RIP.

Looks like the supercell is splitting. One right mover, one left?

Todays slight risk has been widening and upgraded to moderate. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Slightly more thunderstorm activity than I thought there might be today so far... They often get a hard time but in this case, full credit to the met office/bbc forecast that has been mentioning this for several days. Had a brief heavy rain/hail shower here in Tunbridge Wells this morning. Some lightning about this area, the closest being about 10 miles to our south and east.

PDS on the cell heading for Wichita.

I haven't posted any photos for a while so thought I would post up these from summer 2011. They were taken on a thundery 26th August 2011 in Wiltshire.

UKMO modelling a few showers over East Anglia tomorrow, a few models hinting at low end cape, could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. Met office suggesting the showers will generally be light though.

While this is the topic of discussion, the radar for the day is amazing.

ESTOFEX called the 15% risk as opposed to the 50% which was spot on with the low coverage as it turned out so well done to them on that. I was returning home on the train today from Wiltshire back to Kent and there were some fantastic Cbs all the way. Not my favourite convective day though, saw some nice structures but a lot of messy convection too which got in the way.

Thundery showers on Friday for a few of us by the look of it, midlands/east anglia best placed at the moment for lightning, according to gfs. Edit: Could certainly be some fun for Wales into the South West too, although isolated.

Hi, A few recommendations from me. Meteorology today by Donald Ahrens A fantastic introduction for non meteorologists or first year meteorology students on their first course. It is very non mathematical, if you are looking for more maths, there is a technical guide that accompanies it. Note. This is quite US focused. Atmosphere, Weather & Climate by Barry, Roger & Chorley Again, very readable, non mathematical and great to have on the shelf. Fundamentals of Weather and Climate by McIlveen Perhaps a slight step up from the previous two, with a little more maths but still great for the non meteorologist. The above are all great for meteorology, if forecasting is more your thing. Then the Tim Vasquez books found below are fantastic and very to the point. http://www.weathergraphics.com/ He has produced the Forecasters Handbook Series. I have many of the books and they are brilliant to pick up and refresh yourself on forecasting. Very American focused though. A few books on climatology of the British isles, Regional Climates of the British Isles by Mayes & Wheeler Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past & Future by Barrow & Hulme Climate and Weather (Collins New Naturalist Library, Book 115) by Kington Finally, if you really want to learn about forecasting, read the model discussion thread on net weather, you will learn a lot and there are some superb posters who are very passionate about our weather here in the UK. Thanks Dave

Sleet in Tunbridge Wells now.

Snow again in Tunbridge Wells...just when it was starting to melt.

Can see a good storm about 30 miles out to sea from here in Westcliff now the sun is going down, anvil is lighting up pink every few minutes. Should be better when the sun is down in 30 minutes or so,