kumquat
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Everything posted by kumquat
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Good call but if the 528 dam line stays to the South of us, with uppers in place, could be heavy snow. -
Would'nt be surprised to see a little surprise this week bb.
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I'd take that. Seems pretty messy. Marginal springs to mind.
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Azores Low FTW Beyond Biscay - Electric Boogaloo Part deux
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(Over recent output from various models) Russian / Siberian High starts backing west at 120 hours, providing a proxy block through Europe on the Canadian vortex attack across the Atlantic. Low pressure "sink"; substantial but regionally marginal opportunities for the white stuff. Link-ups to its NW (Scandi) via Arctic High Pressure gain in amplitude over repeated bursts. I know things keep getting put back but I agree with those seeing a mid Feb finale for this season.
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Cold Fracking Shenanigans
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Pretty happy with the output up to day 5. Cold filtering south and potentially* exciting runners coming through. Regardless of region, some interesting model and weather watching coming up - starting tonight.
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I think we'll take anything we can get. Interesting week ahead. Love looking out for those surprises
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FV3 gets flabby later 168 but that Sib High signal is building.
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GFS both og and para seem to have much better 850s across the board. Hope so, but sceptical.
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Biscay Low a la met office?
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Newfoundland low different yet again @78hrs on 18z FV3. It's now a dumbell (again).
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Synoptics, though. Out at that range Siberian High is starting to backfill the colder uppers / and surface cold.
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The way that birthing of a 1010 low (that becomes the sometimes elusive runner) has been pushed back longitudinally further west over subsequent runs looks to be symptomatic of the slow down we're expecting over the vortex field. How this impacts the adopted mother low's track over the Atlantic @ around 96 hrs is crucial to where we go forwards. Pleasing to see that this apparently negligible wave at such an early stage is being influenced by a macro pattern that appears to diverge from the norm.
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I'm still upbeat out to 120 hrs Look at the vortex here: Seems incredible that we cannot get better sustained greeny height rises beyond this.
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Saw that earlier and didn't have the balls to post!
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Uppers on ECM are pretty poor in general, it has to be said.
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6Z Para looking v nice 168
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Out to 120 on all models there is much to be pleased about; snow chances for everyone. Beyond that is lala land.
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Steady as she goes. Nice cold 120 from the Icon
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The somewhat erratic/delayed response to the effects of the SSW
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Disappointing last frames on the ECM tonight. Not surprising to see such model volatility, however, considering the background signals. The Devil is in the detail:
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Weather in Mexico is looking shocking for early Feb
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Have you resorted to singing Dire Straits
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Never mind - there's always the next Easterly Another 10 day chart
