kumquat

Agreed, but if the low pressure keeps transferring NW to SE into the Med area....

I submit my 10 day resumé 12z FV3 240 hrs. Biggest snowstorm in the NH

Question: If the vortex disappears, which way round will the water go down the plughole ?? /jk

And all the while a huge Siberian High developing.

Peachy af

When even seemingly poor runs bring this ever closer, not too much to worry about

Somebody said this yesterday but the verification stats appeared to counter this.

Cobra run inbound?

C'mon ECM give it some welly!

Indeed. Almost entirely lower than -4 850 air aloft from 120hrs onwards.

Overthinking it. All NWP and TC lead to cold. Perhaps for those of us in the SW or West coast of Ireland, we're marginal. But we're used to that.

I need tight isobar to translate.

Para finally smells the coffee

18z para sticking to the script

I don't post with sexist derogatory avatars but I'll always try to be fair with regions.

18Z para is keeping that vortex tight (our local group) . But a decent wedge @ 300 hrs Vortex IS proper smashed through the middle, though!

Apparently Ian F. is bringing out the "Special Charts" on the local news/weather tonight.

Can you stop spoiling the anticipation for those of us following the runs on Meteociel. Thanks!

Cheeky Channel Low

Parallel bringing snow down East coasts just over a week away. Good to follow the Murr evolution.

Yes Steve and better 850s following @ 180 hrs

Was good to see a decent chart for the New Year. Good Auld Pub Run! To 2019 and beyond! Cheers! Thanks to all for keeping me entertained and educated.

Bizarre influx of Thickness

Looks like this might be where the door finally opens.

Encouraging to see the low heights drop down through Scandi into Poland and higher heights pushing through Iceland at 240 on ECM. Sets up the balance of colder 850s into our favour beyond that timeframe if we're looking at any kind or reversal of the vortex where we want air coming from the East. It helps to have the more amplified pattern upstream coming into play, also. GFS is playing with similar scenarios but likes to perform a volte-face every other run. It's like picking the Christmas buffet cheese, Cheddar for all the family, brie for the exotic continentals and a bit of Stilton or Roquefort for the hard heads. A blend of all is a nice compromise but we still don't know which will be the overall winner. Interesting to see the 18z going very much the ECM way at 240