kumquat

Everything looks like it's dying as soon as it nears the Channel, anyway.

Just an overnight dusting would be a start. Maybe from that stuff further north in Wales *IF* it makes it!

Winter Sale Now On! 2 wedges for the price of 1

If nothing else, I swear I am going to "like " this cold armageddon into existence

Yep at T96 the pattern has backed west by 100 miles or so. -6 850s touching South West Irish coast 18z 12z Horses for courses in a selective region but good overall

You suit yourself. I'll be cracking out the STELLAS tonight. Snow within 4 days on that run:

Surely it works both ways Roger. Macro and micro are intertwined and bound by the balancing Laws of Thermodynamics.

Missing Data meet US Shutdown

Nice troughs in the flow.

Even with a slightly poorer earlier run (and it's just a variation on a theme, at this stage) - all signs lead to the freezer, eventually, anyway. That's why this upcoming pattern is looking so exciting: 240hrs: 288 hrs: Into FEB extreme LA LA land This is dreamland we might be about to enter.

"Fred Carr, professor emeritus at the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, put it simply: "The longer the shutdown, the more it'll hurt us."" "In Jacobs' recent op-ed, the NOAA deputy administrator said, "development work on implementing this upgrade will continue following the end of the partial lapse in funding." In other words: it's held up by the shutdown." "The new code for FV3 was supposed to be in by the end of this month, Carr said, but "since the shutdown, final testing on that has been stopped and the new model implementation has probably been delayed."" https://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-puts-us-behind-in-weather-forecasting-race-2019-1?r=UK&IR=T

It's like the worst-case scenario runs are still going with a snow-fest. (albeit from a different direction) 06z Para

Oh, go on then

laughed out loud thanks

hard to call that. Greeny is saying "no, not quite". seems positively biased towards East of Greeny, though, which can't be a bad thing. but then there's the weak heights no mans land and the low pressure over uk outcomes. score 4:2 for snow

Cool. Hanging around for the parallel?

or mid-atlantic at a decent-enough latitude with lows ejected from the Canada segment NW >SE enough for us to capitalise

GFS 18z is modelling a very complex 3 centre low at 42hrs, so wouldn't be surprised at changes at that range

Still loving the look of that huge Siberian high out in cuckoo land:

Yep, not far away now

A mix as the low goes through. All sorts of wintry. Local conditions dictating local conditions.

what ice day said ^

Can't we just lift the UK up to the 500 hectoPascal layer?

Yeah, the runs change. At least 2 every 6 hours. It's fun

Cold synoptics: A matter of days snow: hours