johnholmes

dismal cold breezy day here with rain on and off from 8.30am, a maximum of just 11.9C.

cloudy, dry with a breeze (N'ly), lowest T was late last evening with 8.8C, now on 10.7C

Yes I feel the same ba, 2+2=4 alsways has, always will,no one seems clear just what the daily figures show. Until then it is a bit of a waste of time postulating what might happen as a result of these figures. Best to wait until the last day of the month perhaps?

Until the 3 main 500mb anomaly charts show some possibility of this then I would discount it. Of course 1 in perhaps 50 times GFS synoptic has shown the way but it is rare for this. So far the anomaly charts are pretty solid in keeping a fairly major trough west of the UK. EC-GFS do keep trying the idea of building a ridge in the Greenland area but not consistently yet and so far the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 versions have not shown any inclination towards this idea.

cold and clear here with no wind, a few wisps of Ci and no sign at the moment of the fog covering most parts of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, 200m at the airport, the low so far is 3.4C so no ground frost but close. It is now becoming foggy from the east, much as it did yesterday after a bright start, about 3-400m with the sun still visible. update at 0930 now thick fog/dense now and then with the sun disappearing at times.

and to quote from the first post The definitive OPI index will be available only at the end of October, when the software will be able to elaborate all the 31 daily consolidated charts of the month. So it is fine and part of the model thread up and down for coldies to watch it change each day but the only time you can use it constructively is after the data, actual data that is, has been received, then to work out what the OPI ACTUAL shows. The work suggests that it can then be used as a tool to help TRY and predict what the AO will be. Remember even then that the AO can be -ve and the UK area can still not get a cold snowy winter. I think the work being done on this is great and MAY lead to another link in the puzzle of trying to predict the winter season but it is just that ONE of the tools to use. Like most things in meteorology everything is linked, the clever bit is knowing what weight to give to each link. Very interesting though but I would urge some folk to think a bit before shooting so to speak. It is in its infancy and as I posted a day or two ago it has YET to be peer reviewed those working on it may well agree with at least some of my post regarding caution. I note that Steve, Lorenzo and chio all suggest to a degree some caution. It is not the answer to winter on its own, be it good or bad, depending on ones wish for the type of weather preferred over the winter months. Fun of course to speculate but don't get too hung up with it is my advice.

I'm at times way out of my depth with this thread. But would it not be a better indicator of what MIGHT happen if the data was the actual value on any day, plotted, so that it could be seen what was happening over the period with data? Using a predicted or partial predicted value leaves it open to even more doubt. Why? Because you will be using a forecasted value to try and forecast what the predicted value might mean in terms of using it to then suggest what the winter MIGHT be like. Too many forecast bits in there, get some actual data and then try and use that as a predictor. The data for 31 October is surely the only one with any real use with it being the value, I would imagine the average value of the OPI over the 31 days. There is some merit in seeing how that has changed over the month but not as some seem to be using it with the forecast values being used. just my take on it-shoot it down by all means.

It started bright with half cover of thick Ci and some contrails; the airport in dense fog, this has now spread west and at times thick enough to blot the sun out, 3 miles down the road still sunny, a low of 4.7C and no wind

Dry, cloudless, very light wind, and a low at 7.8C

the latest ENSO official release http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

so is almost everyone else, and it is as yet untried to any real extent. No one has peer reviewed the ideas postulated but some of the data does look compelling at the moment.

dry, very little cloud or wind, a shower in the early hours and a low at the moment of 7.7C

The 3 main anomaly charts are pretty clear in the 6-10 day range of the upper pattern. Once into the 8-14 NOAA has been slowly shifting its emphasis towards a more settled idea, at least for the se. How far north that extends seems uncertain at the moment. links below NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php EC-http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html I should have added that this morning both EC and GFS, GFS especially, seem to want to develop the ridging and +ve heights over/E of the UK more so than the 6-10 NOAA. Perhaps its issue this evening may support this occurring earlier than it previously predicted? also the 6 day stats again shows Met in the lead for, I think, the 4th or 5th consecutive day, not that often EC is left in 2nd for so long? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

dry, no wind, not much cloud 1-2/8 Sc and a current low of 4.4C

both are quite comical, I wonder how many times the worst for decades/100 years will have to be forecast before it happens, ah of course, not for decades-question solved. The two really are just quacks but hey ho they obviously fool enough of the people enough of the time to make a good living out of it. If only I had say £100 for every utterance from them both about cataclysmic weather for the coming winter. Even dafter is the Daily Mail quoting the weather for early next week. One has to laugh Just for some idea of how bad it will be here is the 0600z temperature chart for early next week from gfs, just click on the max/min temperature label at the top for 162h, Tuesday morning. Gosh it predicts as low as +1C over some of Scotland, really does fit the DM warning. utterly laughable I really must stop reading this thread. sorry I got so excited I forgot the link, currently it shows the model output for 12Z, who knows the 18z may show -ve values! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html sorry Mark this is NOT a dig at you but after 10 years on here and almost constant similar predictions by the two named in the papers one does get a touch cynical. .

I do remember when I had red blood that circulated around my body, not any longer, and for sure the heating is on and without any feelings of guilt.

Sure is a cold day, max here 10.7C making it the coldest since 25 April this year.Last Tuesday it was 22.2C and even 4 days ago 21.3C

I think the senior man at Exeter has had a 'funny turn'. I would love to be a fly on the wall at the Met O College as the instructor explains how come has has so many troughs on one chart over the UK, 5 I think it is. Looking at the IR satellite pass over the UK from Dundee Uni it would be a diffcult job to justify his Fax chart! links Fax http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm IR Sat picc http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/piccygridhtml/avhrr/2014/10/7/1250/ch5.jpg I tell a lie there are SIX!

perhaps for a similar reason that winter preference folk still look for snow in late May or even early June. Neither, heat in mid to late October or snowfall of any consequence from mid May onwards are probable to any relevant degree. Yes both have occurred, I have seen snow in June and heat in October in my lifetime, but I certainly would not need more than 2 or 3 fingers to count both together!

very true G_F I truly doubt that it will be the answer to the coldies hopes or indeed the end of their hopes. There are just too many questions about this. No one has yet shown a 'null' test hypothesis on it. Its' fine showing how accurate it seems for predicting the -AO for the NORTHERN hemisphere but as last winter showed parts can be in the freezer and other parts the opposite. Even over that until I see solid statistical evidence to back it up I remain rather dubious about its use, certainly on its own. Used CAREFULLY in conjuction with other teleconnections then I would think it another tool to give some reasonable guidance.

Dry but overcast with no wind, a low of 9.2C

Overcast with light rain, started about 0700, a low of 8.3C in the early hours

currently 7.6C down on the same time yesterday! just stopped raining welcome autumn

A fairly sharp drop on temperature after 0755, then 16.2C now 13.9C with just 0.4mm of rain so far; the overnight low was 14.9C at 2400

thanks Steve, quite interesting