geordiekev

Are our tickets transferrable for the next journey, seeing as we didn't get our current ones stamped. Will defo be paying more attention to the postage stamps, rather than just the graphs or ops. For instance this same date, above, has nearly every scenario going, though not sure if the UK HP showing on a fair few, actually sunk anywhere or is the same pressure as we expecting now.

Thanks for a reasoned post & yes these little interuptions decide upon where the jet streams ultimately find the path of least resistance & has the butterly effect down stream. Still much uncertainty in these scenarios

Seriously, just let it go. If it were an archery board then yes all models were on different rings. For us even though GFS may have been equidistant from the actual outcome (when it actually happens) than others, just because the difference was between the bullseye or outer ring, can't you just allow people to comment on the output, as think everyone had their feet firmly on the ground this far out. Yes, the latest ensembles have more light blues & greens in our locale but think everyone knows there's a spread for good reason

Really not getting where all these notions of backtracking is, as the solution showing in the latest run was showing widely in the ensembles. Unfortunately for some reason the operationals are tending to come from the outliers & both ECM and GFS have a habit of doing this. Is a shame there's not clusters for GFS, as the latest output (smidge too far South) did have strong signal in the stamps last night In summary, when our little island needs a lot to go right (especially for Easterlies) is important to check the pack and not take the Op as gospel

Not many of the non upgraded ensembles have greens over the UK

As some have alluded to, if the Easterly is a fail, the Atlantic HP may bring interest after this period of uncertainty

Unfortunately indicates why it's foolish to ignore output unless it's totally outlandish as some are suggesting. It's not outlandish it's the difference between a couple of small systems which just happen to make big difference for our small island. Verification stats 1% different at 5 days out, neither is a reason to discount output. At least it's given us hope, although can't make many snow angels with hope alone, so the pendulum is ever so slightly against GFS but not outlandish

Think someone mentioned last night the proposal of the whole chunk of tpv moving from Greenland to Norway was somewhat unfeasible. A seperate shortwave, would be more likely, not the whole blob & seems to make sense. Remaining positive for now

Think I dated her once

Just a reminder how fallible UKMO can be with the Atlantic even at short range, before we have another 3 pages of UKMO is King posts. Tried searching the previous thread for UKMO charts to show how wrong they were but surprisingly none were posted as they showed Westerly storms throughout it's output. What I did find was plenty of memes rubbishing the GFS picking up on our current block. It's a funny old world. Whilst there wasn't huge differences the Atlantic modelling made all the difference

Yip, on the sherry, off on one, never gonna happen, 0% probability... were some of my favourite lines. Yet again a reminder of the cried wolf fable. Would be interesting and a learning exercise if at least 1 poster gave a reason why impossible, too much energy in Northern Arm, jet stream, etc perhaps someone brave can identify where the other models failed on this occassion. The buckling of the jet stream tomorrow in the Atlantic seemed to be the point at which the models varied. Not knocking but always good to learn from these situations as to which model bias to put credence in. The Arctic High, which has mostly been unfavourable for us as no HLP has been able to link up to it in the Atlantic sector, appears to have found a way further East, so defo interest ahead

Looks pretty similar to previous run up to day 8. The retrogression in FI different but hardly unexpected

UKMO really the only one not to see the Pacific amplification which seems to be a driver of the changes we're seeing

Yep, once again the weather models making mugs of us. Barely 18 hours ago this had 99.9% chance of not happening with some even going for 0% with about 3 pages of posters all banging the same drum. Clearly this is an evolving situation & the direction of the strong jet profile coming out of USA makes big differences. Personally just happy to see something other than the jet making us the target & if we can get some lows heading to Europe from the Asian side of the vortex, things could peak interest again. Long live the block, although clearly we're back into FI being days due to the result of buckling around 1st Feb

Didn't expect the snow to make it over the Pennines so nice little surprise. Edit, seems to have swung to more NNW direction than earlier

Looking at the old radar, much better for wind vectors, you can see the direction of the showers, W of the Polar Low & on our coast are almost from due North so should help coastal areas as the eye moves SE towards Netherlands

Just trying to work out the track of the eye of the low, which is moving South a lot quicker than expected. The positive is that coastal areas won't be effected by the warm centre but just how much convective snow can brush inland

Was taking some pics of the sunset & was surprised at the amount of cloud over the Pennines on the horizon. Unless it was fog

The prediction for the centre of the low may just land ok for the coast early hours, depends how much fizzles out though. Think Northumberland may get lucky, further South a bit iffy

Noticed that the radar shows a lot more beefier showers, than forecast, as the polar low skirts the East coast

Think this polar low could bring some interest as it sinks SE, though most models have it just missing NE it does look beefier than forecast

Because it's not all about the ops, the GEFS, not upgraded as yet, are still a very good tool. Latest run v 1 of the perts from a whole 14 days ago. I agree the upgrade whilst questionable it still has it's uses

So tempted to put the lights & baubles back on

Nice to see, my folks driving to Blackpool today & did warn them to take their thermals. Not sure if they listen anymore given the number of false calls

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