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Everything posted by geordiekev
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
geordiekev replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Trying to think which very memorable year had this similar set up with a Euro low out on it's own constantly dragging in cold & disturbances. Yeah, this is way earlier than the year in Q I believe. Anyone got the dates? 47 or 63 -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
geordiekev replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good Friday vibes for so early in the season, seeing a disorganised PV, Euro LP & Atlantic HP. What's not to like, ofcourse there'll be variants of the theme -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
geordiekev replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
geordiekev replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perfect timing for my Birthday gamble this year to visit Scotland instead of a more obvious snowy location, (Scotland 850s 5⁰ colder than Iceland) though will have to find some elevation me thinks. Weather Gods certainly not ready to adjust their BST hourglasses yet but think I need to start doing the lottery -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
geordiekev replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite a switcheroo showing in the 850s come next weekend, from where we are & into the final week of March. Quite timely that snow is forecast in my parts, just as British Summer time begins. Have to admit was nice to feel a bit of Sun on the face earlier today & whilst we can't wish a forecast into existence, it would be nice to start repairing the lawn, think a E/NE flow into & through April will keep things cool for a while yet especially in the East -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
geordiekev replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Suspect a colder night ahead than originally forecast given the surprise snowfall & crystal clear skies. Will it make a difference to tomorrows snow chances for higher ground?- 736 replies
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
geordiekev replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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The spiral effect seems to be an almost constant feature I've noticed this Winter, with jet stream far South in Africa & all around the globe until it reaches Atlantic. I'm taking a stab in the dark this is normal & linked to AAM etc & to be non technical the plughole effect
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
geordiekev replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not much stopping an almost cross polar flow, although we know it's eye candy for now -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
geordiekev replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah, think I'm only forecast about 2hrs worth just East of N Pennines, before the rain follows then ice threat -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
geordiekev replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah GFS been flipping between Greeny & Scandy heights towards back end. Defo seen worse, period around the 20th I guess is the crunch point -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
geordiekev replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's see how accurate the next yellow warning is, though suspect main concern may be for ice as the snow/rain pulls away -
Wavelength increases, thus less amplification [2] & return to flat upstream pattern, ergo zonality, although a few periods of interest before then [3]
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
geordiekev replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion