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Everything posted by geordiekev
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
geordiekev replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Building blocks certainly there & better shaped low to pump the WAA up EdIT: and only 4 days away -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
geordiekev replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well said & echo the sentiment. The winds that blow a hoolie as the globe spins at 1,000 mph plays a very big influence & those that follow the jet stream/MJO projections can gain a better understanding beyond the 10 day period. As Tamara mentioned yesterday, the High Pressure isn't sinking any time fast & will simply manoeuvre East & West, so we have to hit lucky at some point. On that note, hope you have a Hoolie tonight & a Drier January, please. Chin up folks & to those dismissing drivers “a nod’s as guid as a wink tae a blind horse”. Happy Hogmanay -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If I'm not mistaken, those with more expertise were actually saying a SSW could hinder the other drivers, so it was probably preferable not to have it at same time as wave breaking, preference MJO etc, so it can hold it's horsies for now. A weak jet, lowering heights in S Europe & WAA is on the menu, so lets savour it over the next few days, though you just know being a weekend will toy with us for a few more days yet. Keep the faith & enjoy the last few days of '23 gang -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Netweather wins all the time. It really is an escape from the tribulations & the most fantastic friends group going. Yeah, most of are hope casters but if you don't have hope what is there. Merry Christmas to one & all and to see lots of different options on display truly is well timed This was last Boxing Day & plenty more years we ONLY just missed out. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What is it with weekend flip flops? I note someone mentioned 24th to 26th but defo less reliability run to run over weekends, hence I am waiting till tomorrow afternoon's for a better picture -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Have to say this tradition of a knife edge White Christmas is becoming weary. If only we could have an Easterly running the game, instead of these Polar Maritime roller coasters, for the 3rd year running. I'm always wary of weekend outputs too, so will take Monday's ops with a larger degree of trust & expect more flip flops till then. Not a bad place to be in AGAIN & many options going forward -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
How many times has GFS sniffed & discarded, only to think hmmm. We've all been there -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just made all family aware White Christmas is off. You're Welcome. Now if we all double bluff, just maybe -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hope this isn't a redux of the March debacle when we ended up on wrong side of the block. Still gives me shivers -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
First post in here of the season, pretty late for me as had my bets on 7 weeks ago, whilst lurking. Have to say, this is giving me deja vu of the last 2 years where cold was progged for the big day only for a last minute slither of heights to form over UK or the system being slower than anticipated. Some short memories on here as bookies paid me out on several locations, Birmingham Northwards, the last 2 years. Was quite astounded to get 20/1 for Aberdeen though this year, so let's hope no 5 day changes again. Looks like the traditional radar watching at the dinner table again, as models find their middle ground -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
geordiekev replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Makes a welcome change & look at the direction headed over UK