geordiekev

And from stage right & left the 2 props

Next few frames crucial to see if the crutches for the 2 Highs remain

Here is the GFS mean chart spewed out on 22nd Dec, to the one this morning for the same date. Incredible likeness 12 days apart, so for a T384, not bad I'd say

Just a reminder of a chart from last year, 22nd Dec which touted this weekend as the start & the means weren't too dissimilar, to todays 12z for the same date. Not a bad call at t384 Good call @That ECM https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4984678

Not entirely true as D10 has only now just came into view on ECM. The 12th Day of Christmas was touted on Boxing Day I believe for the initial High, as recall much discussion then, about if it will be cold or something else. Then the 2nd Greeny High started rearing it's head at far reach of GFS. But I do get your point, and it will change I'm sure

Get the feeling there may be enough to go around for the final ⅔

Blocky ¿ I did mention things getting D Reamy

Anyone going to Southern Europe to escape the cold (my folks) may be in for a shock. Hope they can buy jumpers down there

Like '47, will we all be wishing for the AH to save us, 7 weeks in That's some lengthy blocking & in the coldest part of Winter too. Might finally get rid of my grit mountain I've built up from all the failures

Have to say @Tamara post a good few days ago about the shuffling High seems to be so on the money, so I doth my knitted balaclava & helped to calm the nerves this chase around. Still time for changes ofcourse for our tiny island but most models now finding concensus is defo ramp worthy

Too far out for gifs yet. Wth

Think we will be in unchartered territory IF this comes off. Rare enough to see it modelled but to now see different models honing in on similar solutions. Hens teeth do exist. May actually skip the 0z for my sanity

Yip, 2 Highs both propped up by lows, squeezing the life out of the vortex, in turn self perpetuating the high signals. Still keeping feet on the ground though, now we have other models in on the countdown, to see if consensus

Bit too far North

Liking the signal to keep this crucial low seperated, as it's effect on the WAA up the ESB is very much governed by it & less gefs absorbing it than on 0z, which was the spoiler, so gaining in confidence. 60/40 It certainly shows how global interactions across the other side of the globe can have knock on effect, by squeezing the vortex limbs. If the 0z GFS, which has been absorbing it on every morning the last few days keeps it seperate, then I'll defo let myself ramp a little.

Well caught up on the last 12hrs & wow. D Reamy. Quickest I've used nearly all my likes. We really are spoilt for choice of stonking options, now we just need some kind of concensus. Personally I'd like to see the split flow as long it's favourable ofcourse, as not sure I've seen one make it to D1 so would be interesting to witness the results

Well said, thankfully work intervened to bring a pause to the to & fros this morning. Have been saying for a few days this low over the Pacific is reducing forcing on the vortex, thus elongation & WAA not as good when this spoiler appears. It's doing a magic trick between runs. There on the 0zs & gone on the 18zs thus better greeny high as result on the pub runs. Hence best to consider the in memorandum at the end of the day, not at the 1st sign of slight differences on one det from one model run. Unfortunately though the 0z failures do tend to become the form horse but that's prob more due to fact that the Earth's spin produces Westerlies, so doesn't take much risk punting on a Westerly. Now onto the next 200 posts to see what I missed

Yeah defo losing the Pacific High signal which was giving better tilt of the ESB lows. Much to be resolved still. Yesterday's 0z was a bust in that region too, compared to prev 18z

Defo think better to compare 0z to 0z, 6z to 6z... as each seems to have it's own nuance, hence I did promise this season no more alarm calls & here we all are again. Thrills of the chases to nowhere For me I've been keeping close eye on the Pacific low which seems to be playing big factor in shape of the ESB WAA & potential split tPV so until that's nailed down, as is fickle run to run at mo

There you go jumping on 1 factor out of a global pond. Enuff said on topic

Not the point I was making though is it as I'm seasoned enough to see enough failures but also the close calls, which as I said AH can be favourable & it's all a bit of a bore hearing the term non stop. Me I'll review the day after a full set begore jumping on any bandwaggon or carrot dangling

And when the dets & means show that, then I'll start to worry but some of the best Scandi Highs spawn from the Azores High so don't get the constant demonising

Let it Go, Let it Go. Seriously Kasim you're getting tunnel vision for your Azores High, even when they aren't there, you're wishing them true

Yip v happy. The low in Pacific remained cut off at period on interest, lifting heights over there & squeezing the vortex over the polar region, which ends favourable for better WAA in Greeny. All good for the building blocks this far out

Some absolute in there. Nice splits too