geordiekev

And an ideally positioned low anomoly, doesn't get much better barring a very strong Easterly

It will, even on my fish pond on 2nd December. However much to my horror my boot went straight through the 6cm of snow in the fields & then a further 15cm of mud in the swamps out there and came back squelching. So yes, I'm pretty sure we all had this discussion about 10 days ago about what kind of High to expect this weekend, a cold one I believe was the consensus, so not much change bar the carrot yesterday, so onwards to the much touted 2nd bite. Don't throw your tickets away yet, it's a rollover I hear & the next draw is about 2hr away

I'll get your coat

Where's this Hadley cell you speak of? Seems almost non existent on latest ECM

It's just feels like being in the queue to the best candy shop, then to discover their giving all the sweets away for free, but unfortunately we're all at the back of the queue, which is round the block. Sorry, couldn't resist as place needs lightening up a bit. Personally, I still have Tamara, Eagle Eye, Kirkcaldy et al assuring us that the sweety jars may move around but we'll all get some, unless Nick Sussex is aware of a joke jar of sprouts that is. For now HP is on the menu & the drivers apparently, are keeping it at altitude, if not mobile, so may give diff parts a bite at the cherry lips. Me I'm salivating at the split vortex charts, so maybe being a bit too picky

Yeah, almost perfect, Atlantic HP, propping low & a NE flow from frigid air. For me, I just remember last Spring, last chance saloon with similar synoptics where the superb undercut ended up too good it was bad for our tiny island. However, the fact each run is throwing up different stonkers in FI can only be good. Gonna be a tense run in to this cold spell

No this has March 23 shudders, where we ended in wrong flow direction. So long as doesn't pivot too much like these perfect synoptics ended up a failure. Way too far in FI & just 1 pert, so all in play

Once again that low in Pacific, deciding on the Pacific High & Canadian/Alaskan vortex elongation. If it remains separated the split tpv seems the dessert, if merges, Pacific High sinks & more organised vortex.

So if I've got this right UKMO 144 > GEM 144 > UKMO 96 > GFS 164 > ALL 0z. Roll on the ECM I'm just happy there's HP milling about for now. Further runs required

Yeah the interaction of that low in the Pacific is seemingly having a lot of knock on effects. If it gets absorbed the Pacific High sinks & less squeeze on the Canadian vortex. Excuse the diff views from the 0z. Can't remember if it was Nick who said for sanity to only compare 0z to 0z, 12z to 12z. I've never liked the 0z but you know what, their constant overnight downgrades always seem to come to pass, unless that's just probabilistic chance. Edit: my geography is naff, so excuse if I get wrong locations. That's how I ended up at Swansea Uni, was convinced it was Midlands or London re DVLA location

Yeah made big differences down the line & almost a link-up at t324 on 18z. Plenty of water to tredge through though before then

Although doesnt effect us too much, a shortwave at Western Alaska at d10 prevents the High over there climbing, thus no spit tpv compared to 18z

Well Done GFS

Well the energy companies will be rubbing their hands at that run. Frigid throughout, rarely getting above 4/5C daytime maxima

It's rare in hen's teeth that these come off but to see several models showing the split. Just wow

More interested in the link up a la EC control earlier

Come to Daddy

Yip if we can tap into the cold oop North now.

And then the Northerns turn

The Pacific coast high defo gaining traction so just need the second bite to cut through

Liking the greater area of HP coming from the opposite side of our High, through the Arctic. Will we get something EC control like

New Year, New Resolutions. Yes I'm talking to you @GFS @ICON @GEM ... Where there's High Pressure there's hope gang. To health, happiness & HP

Did I miss the ECM? Went to make dinner & cocktails and 200 posts & not sure if anyone posted it or it passed me by amongst the angst. C'mon we're only 31 days into Winter, 10 of meteorological, so we havn't really had as many failures as some are making out. Enjoy the evening, remember those close by & well if all the models are pointing towards a dry January, I'll certainly take it, as the last snow was on top of a swamp & mud ended up over the boots. The takeaway is High Pressure is milling around & those knowledgeable of the drivers, say it will be mobile & not static HP. Plenty of time in '24 for a Big Break 7 days and still much to be resolved from the main 3, so chill. Ciao for now

What happened here. Talk about mixed signals