geordiekev

Pick the bones out of those wind vectors, v slack. Poss disturbance in the force

The GFS extended has flipped to extended cold instead of Springlike March end from 18z. A slither of Greeny heights preventing the trop PV moving over to Atlantic side which reintroduced mobility, now gone, so FI defo this weekend for mid term

So another flip to extended cold on latest GFS, Impossible to have any faith beyond this coming weekend

The introduction of traditional Atlantic fed Greeny heights is a new feature since last nights runs. Just goes to show how volatile they all are atm. Fairly large changes just 6hrs & skin back in the game. Although not a strong feature it stops the bleeding of the trop PV in that area which was showing on 18z

Friday NE flow from a -10 direction could need bit less luck, flow from Skaggerak in Norway which can be a snow machine depending if the system is slow moving or not

Think we just got unlucky, longer term, as there was no US systems to prop the E & W USA blocks in place, which in turn are just eeking the trop PV back into it's usual positions. Though from a glass half full perspective, we've been lucky just to get in this position but may well be last chance saloon, so best of luck this week. Will the volatility in the mid terms continue but seems they are settling on the return to norm, so perhaps Spring not that far away

Not sure, prob only the 3rd time I've mentioned in my time here, as often don't verify or aid us. Seems the model ahead of the chart I posted wants to agree though & is poss next point of interest

Rather gusty too as looks a fairly deep system with tight isobars over Pennines. I take it you've had the hail preparing the ground earlier on. Thought the birds must have had a dirty protest with my bird seed when I first noticed it

Not liking this 18z longer term. The sysyems barell through quicker from Thursday out West & mobility returns with the trop PV largely returning to normal play. 12z had it slightly disorganised towards the end of the run, not sure where this will go. Can we eek out a Scandi High before months end? Enjoy the radars & the white stuff this week those lucky enough to see it

Hardly worth posting as mid term posts getting lost in here & not sure anyone saw my post about St Paddys weekend. Thought worth highlighting how poor model accuracy is mid term. The earlier post mentioned a low which appears this Thursday & took 10 days via Iceland cold pit stop then headed South. The latest moves the same system through 5 days quicker & not via Iceland then disrupts, so less cold. Too much volatility for my liking. 18z v 12z

Rather pointless posting in MOD thread as just gets lost amongst the gazillion short range snow risk posts. Though tbh hardly worth posting as the mid term models are changing each run. Mentioned earlier about a v slow moving system heading to Iceland & over us taking almost 10 days to do so. This afternoon same system has hit us 5 days earlier without taking the slower Iceland route. Think will stick to radar for next few days as model accuracy doing my head in. Earlier track v Latest, see what 18z brings

You're 10 minutes from Consett if you can make it there in the blizzards. If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere

The system that enters the frame this Thursday & takes over 10 days to reach us via an Icelandic cold top up still peaking interest for St Paddy's weekend. Quite amazing how slow the whole system is at present

Weekend of St Paddys looks to see a return of snow risk as a very slow moving low which enters the frame this Thursday takes an eternity to reach us via an Iceland cold pit stop then head our way

Look like snow risk extended into late weekend in some areas, though not sure I trust any of the models, even the short term ones. Very noticeable how quick the stronger Sun is melting frost & what thin accumulations there has been. Before the spell there looked to be a fair bit of cloud cover, which has changed to much more snow showers in the North so not ideal so defo need more organised sysyems like those showing in the South or later in week. Once again weekend of St Paddys & my birthday peaking interest

Yep was quite surprised how hot it felt in the car with the strong sun & blue skies. Only the shaded areas keeping the overnight frost. Need a decent overnight fall this time of year

Midweek certainly looks to be interest to ourselves and spanning out to late weekend. Unfortunately not much faith in any forecasts this week due to the bizarre set up of how much cold is being sucked from the East into the Atlantic lows & the Greeny forcing. Such a shame there is no US lows anywhere to prop the Greeny high

Wow, the model thread really has turned into a will it snow in my area. Think I'm going to get bored of seeing the same snow risk chart posted 20 times in 10 minutes. Not sure there's much chance of anything making it inland through the day from the 700hpa wind vectors. Poss disturbance after tea time might be our chance later on. Drove to airport & some cars nearer the coast with decent covering but fizzles out as drove back West

Still waiting further inland

Again moving beyond this week, due to nowcasting variability, the animation above shows just how little mobility there is in the system & luckily we still do have a lot of very cold air to our North so wanted to point out the system peaking my interest beyond this week. Here it is this Thursday, note how many days it takes to cross the Atlantic [7] via an Arctic top up. It does finally phase with an Atlantic system 10 days later, which transfers the cold our way again. Does feel all v slow mo

Whilst I never wish systems were different out loud, as it is what it is, think I must be in a very small minority that silently has been wishing everything South. Why, because this knife edge situation which is reliant on dragging cold West into the very slow moving systems as they then turn East would be dragging colder conditions from what was an almost perfect set up. As suggested a lot of radar & window watching this week as the E to W interaction of cold air into Atlantic sysyems is an absolute rarity. The system that shows up out West this Thursday & takes a pit stop W of Iceland to fill up on Arctic air could prove interesting and keep us in the game mid month

Aware those are slghtly varied times but v noticeable how different the US pattern is, which in turn effect the Greeny block. Defo too much spread for confidence beyond 48h

I mentioned earlier on, these next few days are so Unpredictable on a microsale for UK so was looking further ahead & still not much mobility across the USA alongside heights clinging on near to Greenland and our North, defo potential beyond our current pattern. Typical as not long planted some Spring colour into the garden

Tell me about it, was describing systems heading West earlier but due to the rotated Greeny block, they are actually heading South, on the blocks Easterly flank down the Eastern Seaboard (reason the systems are actually cooling down), hence my preferred 90⁰ view but impossible to explain from UK perspective, as we are only ever used to seeing Greeny Omega blocks from an Atlantic perspective, hence a models nightmare

Is quite bizarre seeing 500hpa animations actually showing the Atlantic LPs getting colder as they travel West in Atlantic, before heading our way, again so many weird variables working against model bias