geordiekev

Fairly different the further North you go though, so not an overall forecast, as the det follows the mean quite nicely

The interesting thing about the set up is the lows as they get squashed, instead of normally warming as they cross Atlantic are actually drawing more cold as they traverse towards us

JFF but this looks spellbound. Not bad for March & breadth of countrywide chances

I know I keep banging this drum about the Easterly movement of systems fighting against several rare variables but a NH animation nicely illustrates how stagnant the whole pattern is, with lows almost being hoovered up backwards towards Atlantic. The downside is at some point the absorbtion will at some point produce more bowling ball lows but that's way out in FI. The animation looks almost like someone paused the globe

The difference in profile of the Alaskan/Greeny high and the factors feeding it on both flanks in US are so varied accross the models really difficult to have faith beyond 4/5 days and as @nick sussex mentioned from latest NCEP report, the downstream effects on ourselves is uncertain as result. Been a whie since US/Canada/Alaska have had majority of landmass devoid of blues/purples

Not so the Canadian fed Greeny block is playing havoc with the usual W to East motion alongiside the weaker winds aloft. Different thinking required at present

Nice indeed, obviously everyone spotted my deliberate mistake earlier, models want to move everything W to E as is the norm, the Canadian fed Greeny block is wanting to move them West. As we are benefitting from the peak of the block, not the normal Eastern flank given position of tpv, all to play for. Forget Normal, interesting viewing if not nerve shredding

Yep, the Earths rotation & models are wanting business as usual and everything moving Westerly, whereas the rare Canada fed Greenland block wants to move everything Eastwards in the Atlantic area, along with up aloft, so certainly wouldn't make assumptions based on historic patterns, as not sure I've seen anything like it in my 14 years here, certainly hasn't verified.

Once again a lot are assuming a West to East movement that is the norm, the US pattern & rotated US fed Greeny block, needs to be viewed from the perspective that the Eastern flank is working against the normal Westerly rotation, hence lows more likely to get squashed by the Omega high. Models clearly struggling with the reverse flow, so expect scatter

Quite a large spread in the Greenland area too, which will make big difference

Thanks, was difficult to explain but I'm so used to seeing how an Atlantic & Greeny block form, then hold, all from the normal UK viewpoint and it dawned a few days ago the whole NH pattern has basically twisted 90⁰, so the West Canada & E USA lows are the major factors. ECM really doesn't know what to do in those areas, so giving it a benching for now. Think my chart from yesterday best explained why viewing at 90⁰ is a must at present.

Yep, once again looking at these from the viewpoint of a US fed Greeny block at [90⁰] & differences in the mid US WAA, which the ECM is showing, really is struggling with these factors which make a huge difference to the rotated Greeny block & our cold feed holding. We know certain models have biases & is this unusual US set up ECMs achilles heel. Glad to have your NOAA input Nick

I mentioned in wee early hours, this pattern is so bizarre & perhaps best viewed at 90 degrees, which shows how our interest in the block is so dependant on the USA lows propping the block. Feels there's many geographical model bias to overcome, despite them being basic fluid equations, for them to pin this down, so expect the unexpected & that includes downgrades/upgrades

Have to say, the models really must be being tested at present, as I find myself having to look at models at 90 degrees rotation to get a feel of what we're used to seeing as a normal Atlantic block. Instead everything is skewed with the unusual Canada & Eastern seaboard coastal low pressure systems feeding/propping up the block, with us benefitting from the flow at the peak of the block instead of the usual Eastern flank . Feel there's legs on this one, interesting synoptics indeed with several sources of WAA feeding the block.

The latest GFS suggests a fair bit of cloud cover so should reduce risks of daytime solar melt. Just pleased I went against the grain & bought a North facing garden which shades any of the white stuff meaning Oct & March cover lasts that tad longer

Well if no one is claiming Newcastle, here it is, as for the snow rate can I bank the 9cm/hr spike on 9th

Generally at this time of year, I go on a birthday excursion looking for a final snow hit, be it E Europe, Iceland etc. However, many times it's snowed at home second/third week of March, so decided this year NE Scotland was my punt & still looking hopeful w/c 13th, although would have been unlucky not to find N European snow from latest

Sorry but even the experts don't know how the current slowing of the stratospheric winds will effect how stagnant the pretty much expected HP formation will be, so if you do find someone knowledgeable good luck. Fact is the trend has counted down to the point most models should now start picking up on the evolution, so then we can discuss probabilities. Anyone not interested in charts like this from yesterday & today at yes the D10 range perhaps need a different thread. Just because they look similar doesn't mean anything got delayed, just evolved

Enough with this day 10 malarkey. If it had ever been at day 10 then the met day 10er would clearly have mentioned it by now. All I've seen is them looking beyond day 10 using longer term models hinting at possibilities of where the high may retrogress to beyond D10, ergo beyond March 4th. Patience

Now that is more like it, more of a reinforcing Omega shape to it & a low underneath to prevent it collapsing. Think the fact we have had ECM control beyond day 10 backing up GFS has led many to believe it's always been at T240 when in reality the main course was always around the 4th/6th. The earlier teasers re Easterlies never held enough support, to suggest a decent hit prior to the period of interest. Patience does seem thin from many but I guess when you've had almost a month of nothingness, is easy to wish something earlier into existence. The proper countdown can begin

Is always good to see new members each new Winter season, for those like myself, who hibernate in the Summers & always look forward to the Autumnal awakening. But have to give you massive credit young man, for doing the hard work that some of us struggle with & explaining the more challenging background intricacies in a digestible fashion. I do hope that for yourself & all of us that the hopeful SSW sheds a bit more light on the rarity that is our weather. Keep up the good work & ensure you get out in the stuff too, no matter the weather, nature is a good friend especially in Winter. Yesterday's 35 dayer is literally all over the place in terms of temps but hopefully another learning phase incoming

Didn't you have this same conversation at beginning of Jan, how'd that conversation end? 5.2C was hardly record breaking for Jan & prob best to use 2m temps when discussing CET. Feb certainly looking to be settled, dry & not surprisingly, warmer than chilly W/NWs and as being touted dipping as we head towards March, though the control certainly on the extreme both above & below

They say time goes slower next to a black hole. Really is amazing the lack of storms both this season and last. That is some anomoly over us atm

Old skool postage stamps pretty much in agreement short term. Thanks to earlier poster for the memories

Interesting how the 30 year mean tends to drop off as Feb goes on, quieter Atlantic?