geordiekev

This is what I'm hoping for. A true Atlantic born HP. The retrogressing ones weve had, are long, tedious & as per latest not really delivered. Whereas Atlantic driven HPs, with AAM on our side has better potential for Greenies & retrogression to Scandi

Good to see Atlantic driven HP systems as after this chase it really has cemented that I'm no fan of UK HP retrogression, as all seem to end up a bit meh

With all these chases Ambassador you are spoiling us

Way too early to be discussing snow chances still, until a consensus is within the reliable. Hence, not too worried about interun variables just yet, as long as the macro pattern still looks peachy, I'm happy

Any more West based & the GH will end up in Scandi

Might need an airmail sticker on that envelope if it progs much further South

Yeah, was just thinking the same. Never has such a run in felt this long. To think it was 22nd Dec when tomorrows promising charts appeared & soon after became apparent a week long cool down was the order of the day. To see the goods within the T200 mark is nice to see. Only problem now is it's not just GFS providing the period of interest, so every model now having it's own interpretation for end of the week. Plenty of hope going around though

Weren't similar outcomes still at t300 mark, till yesterday & suddenly jumped fwd a few days. Me I'm still happy to have a drying out period as has been modelled since Christmas & as ever the run in will always show options, good & bad. Feet still on ground until the concensus is decided upon, so will be an even more tense week but looking forward to crisp brighter skies in the meantime & see what kind of results these charts could produce

To see evolutions that appeared much later in the runs of recent, now getting within the D10s is quite something. From La La Land to ooh la la. Ofcourse now it's within the cross hairs of all models, expect swings both ways, so best not get too excited or despondent. The 0z GFS this week, bar 1, I believe, all had spoiler lows preventing the Pacific/Greeny Highs, so would love to know why that is. Hence, I've been reviewing the full day of runs, rather than 1 timeset & good to see the outcome I'd prefer, just for the rarity value, now modelled slightly sooner.

Worth remembering that till today we only had GFS to model the 2nd cherry & GH evolution, which is now appearing on the D10s, so now we can start looking for concensus. If this morning anything to go by, suggest some find another hobby

West based solutions dont just come out of nowhere though, they evolve so at what T do you think that may be, serious Q? T420, way beyond FI, so a little bit too much emphasis, trying to go beyond the 2 week mark. Let's get the first blocks in

Yeah March last year was good example. It pivoted so far West I was actually viewing models on their sides to see where the cold was going. Not there at the moment but is certainly 1 of many outcomes but let's get the Greeny high in reliable first

Could be a good time to bring back the 72h thread, for those afraid to dream

Think the EC46 called this blocking spell a while back & to be fair GFS had a mean way back on 22nd Dec, at T384, almost identical to the det 12 days later (yesterday). Quite astounding & a reminder GFS can be useful for trends at the far reaches, just it normally drops them soon after

Deepest sympathies for today Matt & if your Dad was as much as a snow lover as yourself, I'm sure he's pulling a few strings. Completely diff circs but similar happened when I lost my black lab, who like me adored the snow & I'd like to think he had a paw in delivering the very next day & a further 3 in the 2 weeks that followed in March '19. But defo raise a glass to the superb charts & upgrades of late

That quickly escalated

Decided to catch much needed nap between 0z & work but the ECM d10 is high risk/reward. As I mentioned last night. 8th March '23 had great synoptics but did go too west based, so we ended up at wrong receiving end of the bitterly cold flow per below. However, the signals are all favourable atm so would have to get v unlucky again if we ended up with such a good looking pattern but a few miles made it a UK bust. Looking fwd to this arvos for sure

Well that's me happy. We've passed the point that was contentious so happy to snooze for now

Now that's an upgrade, now the 0z is coming on board too. That's the full gfs suite

They are missing the propping lows, been the same last 3 0zs. Hence need to compare 0z to 0z, 18z to 18z. Oddity indeed This one I've been banging drum is uber important to squeeze the vortex limb & aid the WAA tilt

It's the 0z, seems to like to produce shortwaves at tips for some odd reason Must be 3rd day in row it has but was on both Pacific & Greeny side last 2 days

And from stage right & left the 2 props Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994060

Was hoping you'd be getting the crayons out soon. Still a few runs to get real excited but good to see your prospects out of the loft

Not too dissimilar to what we had in March last year. Unfortunately the undercut on that occassion, per the norm managed to spoil it due to too West based, so still staying grounded till consensus & within D5. Expect variations for a few runs yet

Yip, nice squeeze on the vortex limbs to aid WAA