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JoeShmoe

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Everything posted by JoeShmoe

  1. JoeShmoe
    Taps Aff that is up here
  2. JoeShmoe
    Have to say im not a fan of sub zero daytime temps with no snow, its just cold and icy and frankly unpleasant where you need some form of heating all the time. Its like when its over 35c and humid in summer with no storms but in reverse and that's unpleasant too
  3. JoeShmoe
    Some people have been saying that for weeks (but were shot down as pessimists)
  4. JoeShmoe
    Get this week out of the way and it gets milder and we are one week closer to spring !
  5. JoeShmoe
    Well after 346566568877676655 posts on the MAD thread since new year looks like turning cold (not dramatically so) for a week but mostly dry away from the far north and coasts before it turns milder and wet again next weekend. Meanwhile France likely gets a snowstorm lol at least might see some clear and sunny days though, always get really deep blue skies with air from the north it seems
  6. JoeShmoe
    Every single run I see ‘better heights into Greenland’, the HP there must be about 3000mb by now !
  7. JoeShmoe
    i preferred the 6z runs that had the jet tracking well south and the LP systems into France, that would bring truly frigid air down from the NE as the 6z GFS had - think that aligns towards what Tamara was saying as well?
  8. JoeShmoe
    you cant make it up in the MAD thread, this morning the ECM didnt have a clue, doesnt model upstream well, cant trust it as so many differences run to run. now its thrown out a good run its everyone's darling again And they will do it all again tomorrow .. its a parody of itself at this point
  9. JoeShmoe
    Well said Nick, so many continuing to say this is nailed on and lauding whichever model shoes the best run until this gets cross model agreement at less than T+96 I’ll (like many others I’m sure) remain sceptical as we’ve seen SO many times before that what can go wrong with cold spells in this country will as micro scale events get better modelled
  10. JoeShmoe
    I see this morning ECM is the best model and GEM and GFS are crap, whereas it was literally the exact opppsite 3 or 4 days ago ! if and when this all starts to downgrade as we get into the reliable and the micro scale details that have such an effect on our tiny island get modelled there’s going to some very sore heads from being so enotionally investeed in this chase
  11. JoeShmoe
    id FAR rather have a 2-3 day cold spell with snow on the ground than days of really cold weather but bone dry. really dont see much point and my heating bill goes up !
  12. JoeShmoe
    Been on work calls with London based colleagues today, they are having a few snow flurries, surprised we haven't seen an Amber Warning Meanwhile its cold and damp here, miserable
  13. JoeShmoe
    Where though as what i saw, aside from north facing coasts in Scotland looks drier than a christmas tree in march
  14. JoeShmoe
    Surprised they havent issued an amber warning
  15. JoeShmoe
    cold and damp here this am with drizzle, horrible
  16. JoeShmoe
    So looking at somewhere like Bristol that is 'Amber' we have forecasted temps next week of 4/3/5/7/6 - thats severe cold, maybe it is these days in the UK!
  17. JoeShmoe
    It’s been that way since Christmas ! Always at day 10, then as it counts down the models start to see shortwaves or model upstream events more accurately and so it’s back to day 10 ! It’s exhausting to watch folks do it to themselves , like road runner chasing wil e coyote It looks mite like the good old pre winter high pressure we used to get in November in the 80s with frosts and freezing fog , remember it being common then
  18. JoeShmoe
    I came to that realisation a few years ago, it’s quite cathartic when you do, like this current chase for a cold spell, when you look at it believing it will be watered down to something quite normal and not especially long (if it happens at all) then if anything does happen it’s a nice surprise plus I hate the gray and wet and just want sun and warmth now, few more weeks until you can start to feel the warmth of the sun again
  19. JoeShmoe
    As are the models everyone is posting !
  20. JoeShmoe
    im off to get a VPN and create a new account (heard it all now)
  21. JoeShmoe
    Yep, and the usual suspects are still posting day 10 charts. And shooting down those who have very wisely urged caution all along
  22. JoeShmoe
    Is everything still at day 10? bone dry and freezing cold doesn’t really float my boat, if it has to be cold and icy etc then at least some wintry precipitation to make it worthwhile
  23. JoeShmoe
  24. JoeShmoe
    Going to be toys out of prams when the models get into T+120 and model spoiler shortwaves that somehow deflect the cold east. Colder and drier yes but until i see charts at T+96 with cross model agreement im out on anything severe / notable
  25. JoeShmoe
    It’s always 10 days away, it was last week, it was yesterday and it will be tomorrow if our t+240 winters ever came off we’d be like northern Finland I mean what could possibly go wrong !
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