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keithlucky

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    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted · Edited by keithlucky

    1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Looking like a snow to rain event next week currently based on the latest model runs, I hope not but it's happened too often in the past!

    Certainly battle grounds are drawn ,this is set to be one hell of fight Large area oh high pressure to the north with Low pressure to the south west running up the channel .Some heavy snow around with snow to rain ,rain turning back to snow events.The met office agrees to this because of strat warming event as I mentioned previously the down dwelling will last until February so lots of battles ahead!                        

    Screenshot_20240109_202003_Chrome.jpg

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Jayces said:

    Sorry for the OT reply but with regard to sea ice in the Arctic, yes extent is back at long term average levels but that's just one piece of data, the true picture takes into account area, thickness and volume and the last two are both trending at our close to record lows which is a concern.

    It's like taking two glasses of water, one with a thin layer of ice covering the top and frozen solid, viewing from the top they both look like the have the same amount of ice but looking at other angles tells a very different story.

    Caution advised we normally see adjustment south,so it wouldn't be a surprise if front barely reaches the famous M4 corridor!

    • Like 3

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, bradymk said:

    Given its E / ENE rather than NE, I think southern areas of Wales won’t be too affected by that on this occasion with the direction that the precip is supposed to be moving. The Bristol Channel may actually help pep some of it up near the coast as the main area of the cold pool moves west (about 7-11pm  tomorrow). A wait and see I think…

    ECM hasn’t been too keen anyway so far so interesting to see what that has.

    True I have seen Cardiff Newport have showers in this wind direction nothing in Swansea.

    • Like 2

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

    Thursday 11 Jan - Saturday 20 Jan

    High pressure will remain in charge at first, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. Many areas will often be dry if rather cloudy, however occasional light rain or drizzle is likely, especially on some east-facing hills. The best of any sunshine in sheltered western and perhaps southern areas and still rather chilly for most. Towards mid-month, the high will likely decline or reorientate itself to the west or northwest of the UK, potentially allowing colder air with snow showers to filter south across the UK and/or for frontal systems to approach from the southwest. The latter scenario would also bring the potential for significant snow and also perhaps some heavy rain to parts of the south. Either way a more unsettled outlook towards mid-month looks probable.

    Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Jan 2024

    Sunday 21 Jan - Sunday 4 Feb

    Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of further frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against any cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions redeveloping, at least in the south, where occasional milder interludes are also most likely.

    Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Jan 2024

    As colder northerly winds digs south becomes interesting next weekend. Screenshot_20240107_144415_Chrome.thumb.jpg.3ee9a84bab1545c2a9aa522d945af881.jpg

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