keithlucky
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Posts posted by keithlucky
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11 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
From nick on model thread showing a small disturbance increasing the snow possibilities Monday night
East Wales look favored atm but let's see what happens.
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16 hours ago, keithlucky said:
Possible upgrade on precipation for Monday. Just goes to show snow forecasting is nowcasting let see what develops on radar Monday night.
From nick on model thread showing a small disturbance increasing the snow possibilities Monday night
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19 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:Sorry part 2. We see a westcirculation.
This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both?
Strong stratospheric Warming underway ,driving cold air southwards ,westwards linking up high pressure over Greenland to HP over Canada.Becoming very cold from North.This graph shows a strong warming underway.
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19 hours ago, keithlucky said:
Brisk easterly wind turning colder and colder bitter winds fetching snow showers across Wales on Monday.Showers possible any time radar watching for the rest of next week. Winds switch to northerly. around the14 th of January with heavy snow moving down from North. THIS is not a normal UK shot cold spell .Another stratospheric warming is happening towards the end of month winds from the east then the north dominating until end of month severe cold spell on it way.
Possible upgrade on precipation for Monday. Just goes to show snow forecasting is nowcasting let see what develops on radar Monday night.
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Just now, ANYWEATHER said:
Are you really sure that will happen ?
Slow building perfect build blocks in place ,Perfect set a big Greenland High affecting our weather that as rare as Hens teeth!! And you stop playing a devil advocate Lol! Model thread has become full of them.
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1 hour ago, whiskers said:
All this cold that’s happening next week onwards,anyone know if there’s any
Coming our way??
Brisk easterly wind turning colder and colder bitter winds fetching snow showers across Wales on Monday.Showers possible any time radar watching for the rest of next week. Winds switch to northerly. around the14 th of January with heavy snow moving down from North. THIS is not a normal UK shot cold spell .Another stratospheric warming is happening towards the end of month winds from the east then the north dominating until end of month severe cold spell on it way.
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16 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
I'm not sure I've seen a chart as bizarre as this before!? The whole PV shifted to the Asia/Europe side.
Slower evolution, but let's get real, it's absolutely sensational!
Very simular to the sensational winter of 1962/1963.
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Despite all the doom and gloom in the the mod thread,that strat warming has failed it hasn't. The vortex has spilt. One section causing zonal wind reversal.Resulting in large High Pressure over Greenland.As a result become cold next week becoming very cold the end of next week as colder air arrives from the N east.
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On 30/12/2023 at 08:54, keithlucky said:
Signs are for 2nd week of January EPS showing cold entrenched across Europe.
Mostly dry ,from Sunday scattered snow showers ,More snow showers Monday as a cold east wind,moves snow showers across UK.
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15 minutes ago, Cymro said:
What an incredibly wet start to January, hopefully after this week, rainfall will be vacant from the forecast for a while!
62mm o rain since 10pm yesterday and more to come
Yes let's hang in there Dry by Friday!
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On 31/12/2023 at 19:21, keithlucky said:
So colder weather is almost set in stone by next weekend.Friday HP over North UK dragging a biting cold easterly wind.So dry for most getting colder and harsh frosts at night as, wind drop and freezing fog becomes persistent as wind eases.
So the Gfs has cold locked in for 10 days longer term ,GFS has USA and Northern Europe both affected with northern blocking,lasting to the end of January. With both continents to be affected is a rare occurance
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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
That was yesterdays 12z run Keith
let’s hope todays can hold that
Map confirming with country file latest met forecast in agreement with .
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Met settling on a HP settling North with a bitter East wind so let's move on from constant negative comments.
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So colder weather is almost set in stone by next weekend.Friday HP over North UK dragging a biting cold easterly wind.So dry for most getting colder and harsh frosts at night as, wind drop and freezing fog becomes persistent as wind eases.
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Severe cold becoming entrenched across Europe haven't seen this for many years .Thursday-,Friday when temperatures at night could hit -20c
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Just now, mountain shadow said:
It really takes extraordinary synoptics to bring proper cold now due to AGW and expansion of the Hadley Lolv
Lol snow always been as rare as Hens teeth.
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16 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
Seems to me a toppler in a couple of days. On the westside of the anticyclone the movement is too much from west tot east.
Brutal cold heading west out of Scandinavia.End of next week.(-30c Stockholm ).
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Brutal cold heading west towards the NEast UK end of next week (-30c Stockholm)
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9 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Another crazy few hours of weather coming up for tomorrow, im not sure what to make of what will happen going into the new year in regards to cold weather. Still all a bit unclear right now in the models thread. Theres definitely some very very cold air bottled up further north into norway/sweden and finland.
Signs are for 2nd week of January EPS showing cold entrenched across Europe.
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On 27/12/2023 at 09:41, keithlucky said:
Big stratospheric warming underway, should have more persific details by end of week Down dwelling underway.
Due to the strat warming could well end up colder January than forecasted .
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It' should be mentioned that another storm hitting UK Saturday with bombogenisis forming on the cold front.
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46 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:
Yes they do seem to slowly jumping of the fence so to speak and going with colder blocked scenarios, I love the bit about the block being towards the north west which would point to more of a Northerly outbreak which is good for here as long as the uppers are cold enough, could see Lake effect snow coming in off the Irish Sea in bands.
Yes unusual to see rain to snow event in the forecast, As you said they must be seeing pressure building to the North.
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5 hours ago, keithlucky said:
Big stratospheric warming underway, should have more persific details by end of week Down dwelling underway.
Long way to go but met office starting to agree with strat warming.
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38 minutes ago, lewis clark said:
Discussing and saying somethings coming are two different things
True but nobody mentioned strat warming in December. Strat Warming is rare event ,and this has even been mentioned in met office .
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Strat warming normally lasts a a couple of weeks,the very cold air will be pushed south across UK around 14th lasting until February .