iand61

We’ll see but i’m not expecting much in the way of a snow warning other than the default setting of “2-5cm low ground with 5-10cm over the hills” oh “and as is the case with showers, some areas will miss them altogether” the interesting one for me will be how they handle the direction and intensity of the storm later in the week. will I trade the chance of a heavy snow for a severe storm.......I don’t have much choice really and it’s better than nothing but i’d prefer a foot of snow and not a breath of wind over a gale and 10c. the worst possible outcome and the one where the TV screen is under serious threat would be Di Ox smuggly telling me that we are fortunate we are missing the blizzards and storm force winds causing havoc across the rest of the country.

Hopefully the Met O will extend the warning area later this morning to include ourselves. it may be just leading us up the garden path of course and the reality might be completely different but it’s something to cling onto.

Well we’re due one or two in our part of the country so let’s see what the next few days brings.

Standard winter is all i’m seeing from the latest charts and although the extended Met O update is sounding a bit more promising for snow than it was yesterday, it has only gone back to what is was showing over Christmas for early January and nothing came of that. a damp squib but without the squib.

Earlier BBC forecast mentioned the storm and showed it tracking toughly over our part of the country as a nasty feature. it also mentioned snow but the graphics showed it further north into Scotland. things could change of course but i’m sticking to my thoughts of yesterday that we will end up in that no mans land of neither gales or snow. calm conditions and with our very own mild sector and drizzle. at least we have a 24 hours window of opportunity for snow before it arrives although i’m still expecting to be shovelling far more potential than actual snow when I get home from work on Tuesday evening.

Don’t worry mate, neither have Exeter and the other professional outfits. its going to be a case of looking out of the window and hoping Lady Luck is finally on our side.

The showers won’t unless there is a more northerly element to the flow than what is forecast. straight westerly or WNW and it’s game on for much of the region although we need the uppers to play ball otherwise it could be a wintry mixture rather than snow all the way. the feature forecast for later in the week could land anywhere looking at it with everything from complete devastation to a leaf rustler on the cards for us.

Still plenty of time for adjustment but it looks like Tuesday to Thursday are the days to to fill yer boots if snow is your thing before a bitterly cold but mainly dry period of weather sets in. hopefully by then we will all have some decent snow cover to get out and enjoy and i’m certainly looking forward to getting out doing some walking next weekend, hopefully with the camera there could certainly be some severe frosts over the snow fields.

Apparently this is taken from the BBC, is this the same BBC which is refusing to show any snow activity before that in case it indicates that the north west of England might see something.

A good balanced assessment and probably the best post i’ve read on here today. it is easy to be thought of as a manic depressive when you don’t buy into the hype that the models show but the reality is that downgrades far outnumber upgrades when it comes to snow and bitter cold with the form horse usually being somewhere between at best a watered down version and at worst a complete reversal. on this occasion i’d say that the cold is pretty well nailed on but anyone planning on taking a shovel inside so they can dig themselves outwards through mountainous drifts will be bitterly disappointed .......... pardon the pun.

Yep could be serious white on your namesake

I prefer the real stuff but shovelling the virtual type is a damn site easier.

If that lot is snow then much of the region is going to see their heaviest falls for several winters. for some we could be looking at accumulations not seen since the memorable winters of the early 80’s or earlier. add high winds and blizzards into the mix and bingo. looks like I could be shovelling real snow rather than potential next week.

Hope it’s not just interested in pumping milder air into our region.

It’s going dark here now and I forecast it will come light again tomorrow with the same happening in the coming days. other than that it’s all up for grabs and I certainly wouldn’t like to call it. turning colder yes, chance of snow yes, memorable stuff or average conditions, we’ll know by mid week.

Tbh most of the decent falls of snow I have had over the last few has come on the back of no warnings being issued. showers are very hit and miss but have the potential to deliver some impressive amounts in a localised area whilst others see next to nothing. we saw almost a foot of snow from a screamer a few years ago that never made it to a warning Frustratingly though i usually miss out but maybe the showery nature is the reason why the Met are being very quiet on the matter. thats the straw i’m clutching but if we’ve heard nothing by the end of the weekend I can see toys being thrown out of a fair few north west prams

Should we be worried about the Met O reluctance to put up weather warnings for anyone south of the border. yes the snow for our region was not due to arrive until Tuesday but Scotland and NI. are now under a warning for all day Tuesday but us.....zilch. has it been put back, downgraded or postponed through lack of interest or are the Met on the brink of seriously underestimating what is lurking over the horizon. i hope it’s the latter but knowing our luck, suspect one of the others. even Thursdays storm track looks like it will be the worst possible one for ourselves, further north and we get the peak of the winds but likely a snow to rain event, further south and it is less wind but a lot more chance of getting and keeping heavy snow, current most likely track we miss out the best chances of both wind and snow and end up in a breezy and wet mild sector. still time for changes but I went out this morning feeling that we were on the cusp of something very rare and special but come home to that defeat from the jaws of victory feeling.

Much of the talk in the model thread is about the potentially severe winds from that storm due later in the week rather than snow. for us though 90mph winds on the top of many hours of heavy snow and conditions get even more special. and still the BBC and Met O are downplaying next weeks weather, something will have to give shortly.

Another day closer and still the models are holding firm on something special across the region next week. will it downgrade, will it upgrade, is it possible to upgrade from the day after tomorrow conditions being shown at the moment. whatever the outcome it beats looking at constant mild mush with the only thing worth hanging to being the possibility of a fleeting northerly two weeks out. good look everyone and I hope we all get a winter period that will still be talked about in years to come.

Some big totals being banded about on here at the moment, possibly locally record breaking if they come off but even allowing for the expected downgrades we should be looking at the heaviest snow for a fair few winters. exciting times.

If I don’t get plastered with the snow then I will with the bottle to drown my sorrows. Selfishly my only concern apart from the usual everything downgrades into a non event is that a a slight NW tilt to the wind and we end up in a bit of a shadow. a straight westerly is better for the Rossendale area. i do really think though that the snow starved NW region is on the cusp of something special, for some one to tell the grandkids about and I hope we all get plenty from it. i’m not greedy though, a few days of record breaking snow and then the south can join in the fun.

I bet they are glad that it’s a short, easy to say word so they can get it over and done with. hopefully the pair of them are having lessons In how to say blizzards and severe drifting.

Hopefully it’s just another case of the regional news playing down snow for fear of panicking the mild mush masses. Diane mentioned the words snow and Tuesday in the same sentence but didn’t elaborate.

I like Jo Blyth on Granada but where the hell did she get that forecast from. Tuesday and Wednesday giving a chance of a few wintry showers and graphics showing nothing but rain. looks like it’s a case of sod the computer models and experts on Netweather and wait for the Ox or Eno to put the final nail in the coffin for our region.

We got this from a similar set up in January about 3 years ago, can’t remember the date but it was very localised and areas lower down and only a couple of miles away had no more than a couple of inches.