Bristawl Si

Yeah, guess you're right! :lol:

Yeah - really typical, especially as i'm off to the Caribbean on Friday for 2 weeks! seems chances of a cold and maybe snowy few days next week have increased in the last 24 hours.

Agreed! Teleconnections, super computer runs, NOAA discussions (usually binned by them a few times/week) - are we really any closer to more accurate LRFs than, say, 25 years ago? I think not

Agreed - an absolute pants winter - no surprise though. Remember my 'law of averages' forecast from November? After 3 decent winters i was expecting a fairly benign, almost snowless one. Bring on an early warm spring - if anyone fancies a few beers one Saturday afternoon in Bristol then pm me. Cheers - have a good and healthy Spring/Summer everyone!

Yes certainly looks like the end of winter part of the forecast is going the way of the pear. That Azores HP has been really dominant this winter - i stated in my regional thread in November that i thought the weather 'law of averages' would mean we'd see a rather benign and not too cold winter down here, after the last 3 winters (and i got poo-pooed for applying a 'law of averages'!). So what we've had has been no surprise to me whatsoever. Even in the spell of colder, snowier winters between 78 and 87 we had some that were fairly mild, almost snowless ones.

Those GFS precipitation charts are usually pretty inaccurate. Winter's over here i reckon (did it really ever start?). Re the earlier post - i cannot really believe it's 34 years since that channel low blizzard. I posted on the Winter discussion thread the other eve - what has happened to the Channel Low events with blizzards for the south west? Used to be not uncommon 25 years plus ago and back into the late 19th/1st half of 20th century period from archive news stuff i've seen.

Like that post, JH. As was thought a few months ago most of these were just plain hopecasts - and turned out hopelessly wrong with a capital 'W'. IMO GP is the only one who's been pretty accurate. At the mo i'd give GP a 7 out of 10. By end Feb/early March it could be higher or lower.

Winter '11/'12 hasn't delivered in terms of 'wants' in these parts - in fact poor from a snow perspective - come to think of it v poor! Question for the more knowledgeable on NW - whatever has happened to those Channel Low events the South West used to see in many a winter? - sometimes only 1 or 2 each winter (and not every winter i know) but they weren't uncommon 25+ years ago. I've seen archive news stuff that documents these events as quite common from the 19th century and up to the 1980s

A bit early yet to pass judgement on GP's winter forecast in my view, as Winter hasn't finished. Seems to be pretty accurate so far - December and January pretty much spot on - February good start, but looking shaky for remainder. I think, generally, even though i believe it wasn't 'officially' published, the MetO has been pretty good as well. Winter '11/'12 hasn't delivered in terms of 'wants' in these parts though - in fact poor from a snow perspective - come to think of it v poor! Question for the more knowledgeable on NW - whatever has happened to those Channel Low events the South West used to see in many a winter? - sometimes only 1 or 2 each winter (and not every winter i know) but they weren't uncommon 25+ years ago. I've seen archive news stuff that documents these events as quite common from the 19th century and up to the 1980s.

Certainly not decent here in Bristol. All we've had is 2 weeks of cold temps and v little snow - in fact one of the poorest for a good number of years - beginning to rank alongside the mild ones of the 90s and early noughties. In fact so bad it's not even 'average' - an average one here would've brought a few snow days and days of lying snow of a decent depth i.e. at least a few inches. The south east has had two decent snow events - i'd hardly call that a decent winter to be honest.

Two weeks of cold and below average temps so far in Bristol this winter. The other 8 to 9 weeks were mild or v mild. As for snow it's been pathetic here - in fact we had more snow events in past winters in what were deemed mild winters. I think we've had snow laying for less then 12 hours overall, so far. According to Met Office averages, the south west of England gets 8 to 14 days of snow on average - we've had no where near that and i think we probably won't get anywhere near come the end of Winter 2011/12.

And me - another larry letdown for winter 2011/12.

Not so sure - they appear to be accountable to no one quite frankly.

I think those two organisations have lost a lot of credence today - so i wouldn't take much notice of them

It does seem to be pivoting west now but too late for much here i reckon - maybe an hour or two of lightish snow from midnight? I reckon just south of Bath could have a couple of hours of heavier snow

According to latest tweet from Ian F the colder air is literally a few miles to the East of here

Heavy rain here - no sign of wintry stuff

Basically, they're unaccountable to anyone.

Maybe it'll get to us in next hour

Raining here - heavier - time for precipitation-type change, maybe?

Latest tweet from Ian F - "Snow into Bristol not impossible but needs just a slight push (a few miles worth) of colder air in from East. Could change into midnight"

I think Wilts is going to get a decent snowfall tonite

I think it was obvious a good 4 hours ago to be honest, looking at the radar earlier.

So i'll post what he's said shall I? "New UKMO model output has snow mostly Bath eastwards - E Glos and Wilts focal point." As if we didn't know already.

Hmm - that explains why the sky just to the north of here suddenly has an orange glow