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Bristawl Si

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Everything posted by Bristawl Si

  1. Bristawl Si
    It's 22nd November - the tastier charts are still 9/10 days away. That takes us up to 2nd December. Winter aint really started, so why the distress-type post? Grab a beer and chill out!
  2. Bristawl Si
    No - lesson of the day (and everyday) is not follow every run and take them as 'given'. The general trend is the key.
  3. Bristawl Si
    7TWS- Ian F was hinting at poss snow event on N/NW flank Sat night - not major but a possibility - any thoughts?
  4. Bristawl Si
    That's a very interesting point amongst tonight's excitement. The strat hasnt been playing ball - yet we're on the cusp of a pretty decent start to winter synoptically - confused now! Any thoughts Strat experts?
  5. Bristawl Si
    Over a week to go to 'realtime' for the REALLY tasty charts - detail will change run to run over coming days - with these developing synoptics could easily shift south somewhat, in reality. Keep watching!
  6. Bristawl Si
    Seems to tie in with the last few posts showing charts for next weekend (1st/2nd Dec)
  7. Bristawl Si
    "Dont wholly rule out snow Sat night with nocturnal cooling on N/NW flank of low" Quote from Ian Fergie on south west regional thread 10 mins ago, just before going on air on BBC West!
  8. Bristawl Si
    Also mentioned a small possibility for Sat night on N/NW flank of the low
  9. Bristawl Si
    I mentioned that on the Mod Disc thread earlier today and was informed that that scenario was a likely no-no. Temps too high - interesting from Ian there.
  10. Bristawl Si
    That's one big tease! Great for us West folks that we have a top guy like Ian posting here. Having seen the model runs the last 48 hours seems to be getting exciting for end next week.......maybe.
  11. Bristawl Si
    As forecasted and expected for a couple of days now. Next week and beyond could well be a different story though
  12. Bristawl Si
    Just a hunch - nothing more as i havent got skills to produce a LRF - but just wondering whether this Dec could be similar to '81?
  13. Bristawl Si
    Brave call BFTP, for December anyway......maybe. I'm just wondering if the cold forecast for first few days could easily hang around for a couple of weeks or even end up with reload after reload of cold. What do i know but it just seems we're in new phase of colder winters started in 2009 (bit like what we saw 78-87). I know last year wasnt cold but generally in a colder cycle. Fair play though for a LRF.
  14. Bristawl Si
    I asked exactly that in the model disc thread earlier - not likely according to Nick F......u never know though.
  15. Bristawl Si
    Interesting that, esp as Roger is forecasting the opposite. I think he is plumping for late Jan/Feb as the coldest here in the UK. Will be interesting to see GP's full forecast soon - he seems to be hinting at a cold winter with a decent start by next week. Certainly not easy these LRFs...for anyone, whether pro or not. Hats off to those that produce them.
  16. Bristawl Si
    Wondering whether that feature could spring a 'surprise' on its northern/western flank as it wraps around and winds veer East/NE - a bit like the other weekend in SW england/west country? Could it pull in some colder air? Just speculating
  17. Bristawl Si
    Surprised there's no Netweather flash warning for this developing situation tonite, esp in light of Ian Fergie's posts - they have a distinct air of concern about them esp for south west and west country
  18. Bristawl Si
    History tells me that when the gfs shows something like this in FI it can be an indicator that change is around the corner but it's just trying to work out exactly what comes next. If Stewart, who IS one of the 'true' experts on here says follow the mean and trends as the Ops past a certain timeframe can mean "diddly squat" then that's good enough IMO.
  19. Bristawl Si
    Great thread this one - learning something new all the time - i don't profess to understand everything though! Seems like you're building to a good winter forecast - when is it going to be published? Cheers BB
  20. Bristawl Si
    Ah, the main difference on today's output from Meto is the addition of "some wintry showers".
  21. Bristawl Si
    GP still remains absolutely rock solid in his view on developments outside the 'reliable' though - still not wavering going by his post earlier - he seems to be standing on his own ( with some 'support' from SM ).
  22. Bristawl Si
    Cheers NL for adding the vid - i've got a new tablet and havent worked out how to paste a youtube vid yet. The reason i was v interested is because we've been holidaying in Carvoeiro for 10 years now every Summer and where we stay up at Monte Cvo got a direct hit - trying to find out if friends' properties are ok. Cheers
  23. Bristawl Si
    I'm useless at posting youtube stuff but search "tornado portugal" or "tornado, silves". The vids on Silves footie club are as dramatic as any US mid-west tornado footage. Happened yday i believe.
  24. Bristawl Si
    Models frequently chop &change. I see it as a good thing - often means they're struggling or a number of scenarios possible. Suspect a few more days' worth of runs before a more definite pattern emerges for end of month/early Dec.
  25. Bristawl Si
    Oh well - stock up on t-shirts and shorts then!
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