Bristawl Si

I really value what the likes of GP and Steve Murr post. Rather than take all 14 days of a GFS output as gospel they provide their own interpretation of what could happen in the later days of the 14-day runs and beyond. I like that because it's pretty obvious that not all 14 days of a run will actually verify. We've seen in every winter that i've been following NW changes suddenly start to show in model runs - whereas a couple of days before in those runs certain scenarios weren't even showing up. Those on here that have the skill and experience to recognise 'developing' situs get my vote - sometimes when the actual time comes they're proved right and called it before outputs were starting to show it, other times their predictions do not bear fruit. That's the nature of ANY forecasting across a variety of professions. Keep up the good work SM, i for one enjoy reading your posts and like the way u try to explain what COULD happen, rather than relying on 14 days worth of output from one run as 'gospel'. Oh, and GP has been bullish about early December for 10 days now, a long way from that actual period - he doesnt seem to get the same stick as SM. Just a thought. Ciao

Not sure about that. People on here will still quote CFS charts esp when they're showing cold. This despite Ian mentioning a number of times that they're completing ignored by the Meto.

It might be worth reminding NW members that Ian Fergusson posted on here a few days ago that the Meto never use this tool, EVER, in their discussions. Says it all really.

The models are often all over the place and often take a while to pick up a trend. Sometimes they are consistent over a period of times.And, of course, a computer model will only feed out data from the data that's been fed in. Trouble is on here ( and on other weather forums) we have whole swathes of people who are led to believe computers are always right. They're not.

GP is the only one of 'the big guns' on here to have stuck to his guns this last week or so. Rock solid in his prediction for end Nov/early Dec. Whether it turns out correct is another issue but for now he's not changed his tune.

From what i've read and interpreted the Pros are only reading what these models are showing -MH is a classic example, whereas GP is using lots more research and analysis to interpret and predict. RJS has his own methodology. From my limited understanding of GP's work it seems a bit ahead of our own Meto, for example, so i'm siding with GP.

GP's been v bullish and consistent with his view in the last week or so - i'll stick with his view.

Thing is though AWD ian fergie mentioned in a post yday that the meto never use these charts...ever. I think he was saying in a polite way to just ignore them.

I'd advise u do that most weeks of the year to be frank - if u follow every run day in day out u'll end up having a nervous breakdown!

He's on a weather enthusiasts website called weatherbell.com - access to his views are premium i.e. subscription

True but the meto are no mugs either, despite what some of the soothsayers on here say. Computer weather models are so unpredictable and often change 'face' - sometimes they spot trends days/weeks out, other times they chop and change. Edit: It's only November 12th - coldest weather in UK with snow, esp in the South, doesnt usually manifest until January/February - 09/10, 10/11 & 81/82 generally exceptions in my lifetime.

Cant believe what i'm reading on here tonight - suddenly there's hope for the coldies for later in november. In the last few days many were writing off November, incl some of the more 'respected' and allegedly knowledgeable ones! Fair play to Steve Murr for sticking to his guns - again!

Fieldfares have arrived in abundance. I'm sure that nature knows more than humans and computers. I think i'm David Icke!

Why do some people on here continue to employ the modern fad of skim reading? Gibby's forecasts concentrate on the week ahead and maybe into 10 days or so ahead. They dont even try to look at a month ahead so why ru referring to a forecast that is looking a month or so ahead?

It's only 7th November!!

Agreed. UK winters dont normally get going (in terms of cold and snow) until early January. 09/10, 10/11, plus Dec 81, were the exceptions really. If the pros, plus the like of GP are forecasting below average temps then that's good enough for me - ignore the other UK weather soothsayers.

Not sure about wagtails, but Fieldfares turned up here in abundance Nov 09 and 12 months later. I see a few people are losing sleep over no strat warming again. Dont worry there'll be cold and snow events without any strat warming but just wont last more than a few days i suspect, each time.

I agree. I think we'll get a typical winter this yr. Cold zonal will dominate with some snowy/ cold spells but also milder spells. It's nothing more than a hunch - no charts to back it up. Everyone seems focusaed on strat warming but the crazy thing is only a few are just beginning to fully understand its influence on our weather. There will be cold/ snow events without a SSW - i mean look at yday morning in the south west! I guess that no SSW means no deep and long lasting cold. But there will be cold/ snowy spells even without strat warming but they'll not last long.

cant believe i'm missing the action, as in fuerteventura! just called my parents on outskirts of bristol to its east and dad said it's rain there but v cold.

Another band of heavy showers just coming our way off the Bristol Channel. The BC Streamer in full flow at the mo looking at the radar.

Agreed. Experienced a few of these back in early 80s / late 70s. See some archive newspaper reports from last 100 yrs - you'll read about a number of events like these for thr south west. Not an uncommon weather feature decades ago.

Lashing down with rain as i leave work in central bristol - really cold though.

Seems to go against GP's latest thoughts though Fred - unless i've misinterpreted his post incorrectly. Interesting times ahead indeed.

Hardly a long shot call though CC - it is the 'norm' for this time of the year. Having said that the PV doesnt look particularly 'solid' right now.

The UK has a maritime climate - our weather is predominately influenced by the atlantic.... and the gulf stream. Other influences, like the European continent are the exception. These facts, i believe, are just as it is. I'm afraid we'll just have to live with it.