Bristawl Si

Yeah, it's bulk standard temps in January, after a long wet spell. Yes, it's a little below normal but not overly so. Been out jet washing the patio this morn (and yday morn). Not something i norm do in early January but the constant wet weather made it green and slimey, and i got fed up seeing it over the last couple of weeks. Job done, rewarded with a roast pork lunch.

Sunday morn update

NOPE. "...overriding previously understood..." THE ATLANTIC Nowt's changed on that 'front'.

Looks cold next few days, here, but not overly so, before less cold air moves in 2nd half of the coming week. Night time temps forecast for around zero c or even slightly above. Again not extreme cold by any means. Looking at Meto forecasts it seems that 2nd half of January is where precipitation chances increase, with poss of snow for those on the cold/less cold boundary.

Meteogroup provide weather forecasts for the Beeb; have done since 2018. Latest info i can find from Meteogroup, as below: MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the European model (operated by ECMWF), the American model (operated by US NCEP) namely GFS, and the British model (produced by UKMO).

From UK MetOffice website: Thickness lines Pressure decreases with altitude, and thickness measures the difference in height between two standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. It is proportional to the mean temperature of this layer of air, so is a useful way of describing the temperature of an airmass. Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK. Conversely, warm, tropical air has high thickness, and values in excess of 564 dam across the UK often indicate a heatwave. Hope this helps your understanding. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4997806

Upgrade Meto. Downgrade Meteogroup (BBC). There's only one way to find out....

From UK MetOffice website: Thickness lines Pressure decreases with altitude, and thickness measures the difference in height between two standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. It is proportional to the mean temperature of this layer of air, so is a useful way of describing the temperature of an airmass. Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK. Conversely, warm, tropical air has high thickness, and values in excess of 564 dam across the UK often indicate a heatwave. Hope this helps your understanding.

Glorious Winter morning, sunny, 4c.

Hmm...need to do ours over next couple of days. Normally, do them once/year around mid-March/early April ready for Spring and Summer, but the wet few months since end Summer means they're bad and v slippy right now.

Classic use of the English language "....as they butt up...."

So, are we on our way towards this?

Lack of instability on the charts, to our south and east, seems to be the key (snow making) ingredient that is missing. UK High with dry, cold, sometimes sunny days and frosts at night, seems to be the weather for next 10 days or so. Imby - colder than average but not overly cold - well that's what i'm seeing fwiw.

'Standard' Winter weather for here, in between the mild/rainy spells. Colder than norm average, for January (imby), but not overally so.

Another fail from Meto for this afters/eve. Charlie boy on local news yday eve, showed rain affecting area south and east of Bristol. It's been chucking it down last 3 hours.

Bone dry for the next week; i'll take that

According to "Severe Weather Europe", earlier today: A Stratospheric Warming event has now begun, and is expected to play its role in the large-scale weather pattern change in the first half of January. With snow events over the United States and cold air periods over Europe, the second winter month finally delivers proper weather.

An absolute deluge all morning, but now we have blue skies.

Yep. The final 8.15 this eve. One of my mates has Luke The Nuke at 80/1, pre-tournament.

Hope yer bar stays safe, Sean

Heavy rain all morning but it cleared in last hour or so. There was hardly any wind this morning but in last 20 mins it's turned extremely windy.

Depends where you live re water shortages. If you're in an area near to a constant water source, like here, there's never issues re long dry periods. Our area gets its water from a decent reservoir infrastructure, but more importantly from sources in the Welsh moutains, hills and the source of the Severn. Stating the bleedin' obvious, as well, is the population density issue, which London and the SE have to deal with.

Been thinking much the same, lately. Big John Holmes has always said, for years, that peeps should only compare like-for-like e.g. 06z run with 06z run 24 hours earlier, NOT 06z v 12z from same day. Still, after the dullfest and rainfest of last couple of months looks like we're in for a quiet period, with perhaps some sun, albeit colder, from this weekend for a week or so. A welcome respite from the doom, gloom and incessant wet stuff.

Looking at Sean's tabs no surprise, for here. It's been dull, dreary most days. Although, the Meto's station at Almondsbury is 'just up the road' from me, it shows 5 hours more sun than the 'Bristol' one. If the Bristol station is the guy's in Horfield i doubt there's a 5 hour difference, in reality.

It's been a conveyor belt of really heavy downpours here, all day today. Oh, for a dry week or two. Edit: and now, at 15.30 it has gone so dark, it's like night time