Bristawl Si

But no surprise. The current cold(ish) spell, has only really felt "cold" because of the wind. Daytime temps here have been around 3-6c - yes, a little below norm, but nowt exceptional for January, quite frankly. Night temps have been strangely not that cold, range minus 1c to 2c(last night). Certainly, no where near on a par with endFeb/early March 2018 or Nov/Dec '10 or Dec09/Early Jan '10.

Partly, at least Topography A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment. Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon. Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004334

Partly, at least Topography A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment. Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon. Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.

UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output, unlike some of the NW members. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003178

UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output, unlike some of the NW members.

Chaos in the Strat, causes chaos in the model output for a while. I'm sure Ian Ferguson, when he used to post in here, said so (in so many words). Prob worth taking into account all this week when viewing the models.

Well, that's it...a few light snow showers/flurries for 1st time this Winter, 8th January. I reck it's fair to say that back in my childhood days, 50+ years ago, the first snow showers of Winter would've happened mid-late November, here? May not have seen much more snow in those Winters, mind you.

Hmm....my conclusion then, fwiw, is that any damage, rain leakage from outside, is deemed by AXA to be due to insufficient and/or faulty roof pre-storm. I.e the storm didnt cause the damage, but more so the state of the roof/conservatory pre-storm was the real cause.

Lampost action 20240108_182742.mp4

Chucking it down now; ....well, snowing steadily, with some settling.

Light snow grains falling.

Hi. I'm ex-Financial Services but i was always on the Investment/Pensions 'arm' of the industry. However, having been a house owner for nigh on 36 years and knowing a fair bit from ex-colleagues on the insurance side there will be a number of issues an insurance risk assessor will look at. Firstly, when you bought the policy did you declare that you had a conservatory attached to the house? If you did, fine, but if not i'd expect your policy to be invalid, if claiming against water damage coming in at the point of conservatory attachment to the main house. Secondly, an assessor will look to see if your house was in good condition before the rains arrived i.e. was the affected roof area already in a state of disrepair prior to the rain storm. Believe me, they will know, by looking at it post-leak. If they've deemed it wasnt a storm, by their definition, then i'm surprised that you cant lodge a claim, so an assessor can visit your property.

Nowt here, but it's got very dark as the cloud base seems to be lowering. Alex Deakin latest Meto update suggests showers this evening for South Midlands, south west and into S Wales.

One needs to factor in the Hyperbole 'level', associated with the frequent NW members that post in the computer model thread. Examples: Level 1 - Level 3. Factual, incisive, knows their stuff technically, very good at reading a chart, is confident in forecasting ahead of a chart, BUT crucially keep ramps, excitement to a minimum. Level 4 - Level 7. These peeps are also knowledgeable, definitely can interpret a chart or 50 and will post 50 in one post so as to annoy NW members who use their mobile phones to access NW. They're prone to some excitement, esp when the other half aint in the same room. Level 8 - Level 10. A real mixture populate these levels. The resident NW 'cheerleaders' are in the majority here, but this segment is split between (i) those who know their stuff and love the adulation of loads of likes, they go way over the top to max out expectations for a chart at Day 14. And (ii) those who get over excited, spend most days in their bedroom, watching every single chart on every single run, think a sleet shower is just ace, BUT in reality aint got a scooby; however, they're so in love with some other, more knowledgeable NW members. A guide to NW Hyperbole

Yeah, it's bulk standard temps in January, after a long wet spell. Yes, it's a little below normal but not overly so. Been out jet washing the patio this morn (and yday morn). Not something i norm do in early January but the constant wet weather made it green and slimey, and i got fed up seeing it over the last couple of weeks. Job done, rewarded with a roast pork lunch.

Sunday morn update

NOPE. "...overriding previously understood..." THE ATLANTIC Nowt's changed on that 'front'.

Looks cold next few days, here, but not overly so, before less cold air moves in 2nd half of the coming week. Night time temps forecast for around zero c or even slightly above. Again not extreme cold by any means. Looking at Meto forecasts it seems that 2nd half of January is where precipitation chances increase, with poss of snow for those on the cold/less cold boundary.

Meteogroup provide weather forecasts for the Beeb; have done since 2018. Latest info i can find from Meteogroup, as below: MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the European model (operated by ECMWF), the American model (operated by US NCEP) namely GFS, and the British model (produced by UKMO).

From UK MetOffice website: Thickness lines Pressure decreases with altitude, and thickness measures the difference in height between two standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. It is proportional to the mean temperature of this layer of air, so is a useful way of describing the temperature of an airmass. Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK. Conversely, warm, tropical air has high thickness, and values in excess of 564 dam across the UK often indicate a heatwave. Hope this helps your understanding. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4997806

Upgrade Meto. Downgrade Meteogroup (BBC). There's only one way to find out....

From UK MetOffice website: Thickness lines Pressure decreases with altitude, and thickness measures the difference in height between two standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. It is proportional to the mean temperature of this layer of air, so is a useful way of describing the temperature of an airmass. Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK. Conversely, warm, tropical air has high thickness, and values in excess of 564 dam across the UK often indicate a heatwave. Hope this helps your understanding.

Glorious Winter morning, sunny, 4c.

Hmm...need to do ours over next couple of days. Normally, do them once/year around mid-March/early April ready for Spring and Summer, but the wet few months since end Summer means they're bad and v slippy right now.

Classic use of the English language "....as they butt up...."