MR EXTREMES

i must say there is some support for this uk heights, and that's one of the strongest blocks i've seen for sometime if this is correct its a game changer. get that cold plunge running round the back then heading towards the alps and if we get in far enough west then this could end up as a fairly robust homegrown northern block most likely eventually sitting round scandinavia possibly leading to the coldest part of this winter. of coarse we still have the nightmare of the northeastern pacific ridge. but with uk or scandi type block this wouldn't be such an issue. maybe as the qbo increases into its easterly phase then this could throw up more possibilities. in the meantime it reminds me of a 1998 zonal february pattern of that year. mild wet windy almost spring like down here. but at least the models in fi will keep us checking from behind the sofa. the most reliable charts shown most of the time seem to be the noaa charts john holmes posts. but at the moment its ZONAL, vortex is slowly declining in strength but still pretty robust. got a feeling maybe winter could be a back end club banger.

uncle barty loves to party. i can see records for warmth being broken this month really reminds me of winter 1998 after the super el nino. ive got a feeling this winter will come down to so close but yet so far. that vortex is on steroids relentless but not as wet as it has been down here in the sunny costa del southcoast. it would seem most of the seasonal models have been correct. im not sure that bloody northeastern pacific ridge does us much favours everytime i see it there every winter then my hopes are dashed. if we go back to 09/10 winter the north pacific sst were cold the warm pdo is not great thing at all. looks like glacier point was spot on with his indain ocean dipole ideas. hats of there. as posted above there's always some hope, but this will take something pretty strong to shift this current pattern.

i agree we have some warmth around the pole not experienced enough to suggest its a ssw but id thought maybe a major wave breaking event you can see that the gfs op has the restrengthening of the polar vortex. gefs has a warmer stratosphere at the end with a more pronounced displaced polar vortex, the gfs op is by far the worst out of the bunch. and the jma pretty much more bullish than the op gfs and closer to the gefs. i've not looked at the ecm developments in the 10hpa level.

i've got to agree. but the cold run of winters during cycle 24 minimum started with 2008 back end cold. its possible by mid month something could arise polar vortex has been a dominant beast this year and if i was to be realistic it would take something special to knock it of its perch. but never say never. look at 2013 march. but as you say the teleconnection have been conductive at times. but as gp pointed out the indian ocean dipole is perhaps the thorn in our side.

although gem not without interest and to be honest looking at the big 3 models we are pretty close to an easterly but just not enough dig from the lower heights into the med. but its the gem so far that grabs some attention till the ecm anyway. bit colder into eastern europe and including a cold blast for most of us. i mean touch of winter lol. merry christmas everyone.

well we have gefs with a warming, gfs has warming but not as much as gefs. and the jma sees this to. but the vortex is nothing but a monster this season. cant see any warmings stopping it from dominating. and zonal is an understatement. but at times ok for scotland though.

anyway ive seen enough teleconnection and medium term forecast to convince me that the first half of this winter is yet another dud for the coldies. merry christmas everyone have a nice time. im even questioning the low solar activity 09/10 has to been a fluke for our tiny island. best chart is the one cold snap on ecm. at the end then zonal i suspect.

no doubt that this years vortex has clearly throwing a 2014 type winter at us. its certainly not looking great at all.

i agree just about sums things up spring uk, winter in the mediterranean. .

vortex been rampant this year no blocking likely in scandi with a dominant zonal onslaught.

gfs painting a very 2014 winter type. 2014 was the year i was dreading and 2019/20 could well exceed the unsettled awful weather back that year. if we can get the heights out to our west or the siberian ridge to actually do something except just sit there, then we might get somewhere the hemispheric view does not look good at all. and the gfs stratospheric warming from yesterday vanished today.

yes even a plummer would be proud of that plunge.

yeah its been throwing out warmings all through autumn. i wouldn't bank on it until jma and ecm have a sniff of it.

gem and jma have some pretty impressive cold pool to our east in lala land. all subject to change. but have feeling late december january could provide something wintry for eastern southeastern uk. gfs throwing just about everything including the tiniest hurricane sweeping across the south of the uk. as dennis has suggested jet stream even further south on the chart shown.

Oh definitely cold to come in your town judging by them charts.

just a bit different in six hours.

yesterdays ec ensembles i looked at and there is some wild outputs erratically flipping. them russian heights are just holding that vortex together over the pole. inturn this just rinse and repeat. but not a colder rinse and repeat.

right so we have gefs knife edge easterly< unlikely as parts of vortex get thrown out eastern usa. as for the neg nao that would be due to the weak blocking around western greenland/eastern seaboard of the usa. west based nao never really been a friend for the uk coldie crew. however there is large scatter but raw data doesnt really support anything truely wintry. ecm and gfs are uninterested in blocking more zonal perhapes interchanging with dryer moments with height from the azores running through southern england. however the north still will get the lions share of wintry weather for awhile, a northwesterly will be the main feed of cold for the north. so the search for sustained cold continues for the south. ecm is not interested. jma has a zonal cold snap way out in lala land. and gem settling down colder with night frost especially in the western uk.

yes i got to say that your ideas are very valid. its clear vortex russian heights are not really doing us much favours if cold spells is what your looking for. northern areas will do well. i had hoped winter 2014 rerun would not take hold again. but indeed it has the same zonal domination from that year. which was awful winter for half the country and cold wintry in the north. hopefully the indian ocean teleconnections might become more favourable for back end of winter. i've asked santa for a canoe for christmas. and i asked santa for bbq for jan feb. as there's also the threat of something tropical especially for the costa southcoast.

there are opportunities for cold massive vortex segment and cold air to our northeast eventually. jma

its looking ok up north down south awful. models ramping up on more zonel germ building type weather. both gfs models have flipped ideas in just one run. but its not a done deal but confidence on northern blocking have dropped to 20% from 40% earlier this morning.

there is the wedge bit stronger game on .

but wait theres more this could bring interesting times.

and at 192 we have the purple blob coming right at us must be a powerful jet strek coming bit further north. but i wouldnt say its a done and dusted situation ed stone has plenty of prozac he be fine lol. still a very interesting winter so far.

ecm brings in some milder weather. but suspect pretty wet. allsorts of shallow heights popping up here and there. not on this chart but the ecm has the euro slug.