MR EXTREMES

been a longtime since seeing a disruptive chart like this from he ukmo. all it takes to throw a disruptive block in the way. ecm will be eye candy. vortex on holiday in siberia well most of it.

anyone for winter and this is what i believe will happen. 80% confidence at the moment anyway. 09/10 winter was the year i watched this model alot and it performed well.

interesting looking at all the 10 hpa strat charts the gfs models are the only ones for strat warming navgem yesterday but nothing today. but gfs gefs have continued forwards with strat developments. but the most interesting part is how much wave activity is getting into the northern hemisphere. i'm 80% at the moment the atlantic greenland combination with lows dropping down into scandinavia. but more runs needed to be much more confident.

looking chilly up north end of the week

to add to this all models do have this greenland area with promise of heights. and as you rightly say the pv is on the ropes with ongoing wave attacks. this morning both gfs models backed of from a strat event not completely. one run later its strengthened i've had a look at nasa model the jma and nav gem on the strat side of modeling all theses have not strat event but then they don't go out as far as the more main models. now there is however warming going on not substantial but more in the form of wave breaking which is nice to see. i've been strongly onside of the wedge into southern greenland. possible that these heights may increase further and that neg nao and ao could well plummet into december. especially if we get a warming event in the strat.

disruptive block greenland area. looking good.

heights are having ago around greenland. the azores heights are suppressed. but more interesting is the disrupting of the vortex so jet stream also maintaining a more southerly type location. pretty unsettled for awhile longer.

sorry yes very similar.

the vortex is under some serious stress though its clear to see by the segments flapping all over the northern hemisphere defanatily has a southerly tracking jet compared to recent years well since the deluge of 2014. and its been nippy already. some pretty erratic going ons in the world of weather. last couple of years has been pretty interesting. but i do agree we have all been here before though.

short term pain long term gain. gem would lead onto better things for december if that were to come off.

later gefs runs rather worrying for rainfall amounts, but plenty to keep us all interested loads going on. ecm was bit flat this morning, but wondering if this evenings ecm will show the same shallow wedge of heights into southern greenland as the later gem frames show. because that could help flip the nao negative..

maybe cold from the eastern flank. but regardless that be a chilly pattern greenland does not look so good on this run. but lows still diving south which has been common feature so far. only a matter of time. unless a 2014 rerun on the cards.

gefs is close but thats a large chunk of a disrupted vortex. question mark area is my only worry. but there is space for greenland for heights.

shorterm slight warm up. but look north northwest northeast absolutely bottled up cold only a matter of time.

perhaps a wedge there is a good place. but it looks worse than it is, i reckon and if the changes are as dramatic as that then just proves how fickle models can be at this time of year. so much going on. interesting though. or not very wet and windy.

them lows fazing with each other really nailed it i wonder if a ridge might push up in the atlantic but most likely not.

possibly a look at the jet stream might tell a better story. but still knife edge stuff. november and december 2010 long for a real 1050 mb or 1060 mb heights over greenland.

i agree this fazing issue nick sussex talks about. and big chunk of vortex direct north. still plenty of time yet.

ecm says nope very big batttle going on

no i agree the mother vortex is really over our side of the pole. and gfs in lala land would most certainly lead on to better lets see what the ecm looks like at 240 hrs although i feel 96 hrs is fi.

ecm if we can absorb the incoming low, we could well be on to a winner winner chicken dinner for coldies. these little surface ridges can stear weather into chaos.

there is however a chance, that even though the deep cold plunges into scandi and into eastern europe it wouldn't take much for cold to enter from the back door from the east . . wouldn't mind seeing a continued southerly tracking jet and lows diving nw to southeast and for continued unsettled in the med. far from done deal but then im not keen on the erratic nature of the gfs. although i hold higher confidence in the ecm and the gefs. and sometimes the gem especially for height patterns. but then all models do struggle with uncommon patterns.

indeed very very close though. plenty of wave breaking though so maybe something will flip towards a more favourable outcome. been an extremely interesting start with blocking a little more robust than recent years. a 1050 or 1060 mb greeny high would be a cracking start to winter proper.

ao tanking bit like 09/10. looking at past tanked ao,s there is no doubt with low solar output and teleconnections coming together seem to influence the onset of cold winters. but past years look at the tanked ao but to get tanked ao and nao at the same time would increase chances even more. at the moment both index have a little negativity although this only based on model predictions. my money is on continuation of current theme for awhile longer. if we lose northern blocking i do feel that 2014 wet wild winter. although northern areas did ok in winter 2014 which was dominated by northwesterly type flow. but so far its a nail biter good job its not winter yet. better stock up on prozac and hope we get the infamous strong northern blocking. so far so good cant wait for the 12z.

totally agree this type of pattern and erratic changes plus the southerly tracking jet. and of coarse was a feature in 2009 and 2010 winter. there are similarities definitely at the moment anyway.