MR EXTREMES

But then also it depends on depth of warmth already established. Also warmth in the wrap around. But warm very warm plenty of moisture and thundery activity into June.

That's if that particular chart is correct yes.

Absolutely no doubt this is a very fluent pattern. But with a more general southerly and south-westerly component to the patterns I'd suggest warm to very warm humid on that note thundery breakdowns become a very real possibility with such different patterns setting up around the world. Id punt that summer this year will hold some severe weather events for the uk. But in general amplifed patterns are more likely that not. I'd wouldn't be surprised if warm to very warm spells more often than not. Ecm and gem love the heights and are more than likely to be close in the long run. The fluid movement by the ukmo is likely to be more in-between the focus on recent months has given me a insight into progressive to slow each model has its given strengths its working out what's more likely by using combined model analysis. Id expect the met Office to be pretty close to actual outcomes. Although I don't rate the ukmo in these current set ups. But the human analysis is a different story. Like the noaa anomaly charts ect ect. Absolutely nothing terrible on the horizon pretty straight forward june by the looks of things.

I'd ignore the ECM tonight the switch around is way to dramatic beyond 144hrs stick to the ukmo until the ECM picks up on a different signal. But the signs are there and models are going to chop and change alot in 24hrs when you see a few days of consistent modelling then yes maybe get excited but I've to got sucked in by model run hysteria as well. with Greenland blocking being my worst enemy with the models. But I reckon we are close to a 2013 the closest since then. It's been a chaotic winter and a nightmare to forecast. But in my opinion it's not over yet. Give it a couple of weeks then yes I see you next winter lol.

Excellent post as usual. Totally agree it's been a very slow response with the 30hpa stratosphere to respond but backed by the right background signals to especially the el nino flat line state and the low solar activity I agree thanks enjoy reading your post.

Ukmo is close apart from that little low of coast of Canada. But the longer range models do seem to flattening ridges quickly most likely to do with a vortex revival. Although as some have said the effects can linger like a bad fart. But I think the models could be wrong so much going on in the atmosphere I think it would be wise to wait till Monday to see any improvements or worsening charts.

Long stretch southwesterly there but is that heights building over near Greenland

Now that is a Scandinavian block and ECM normally sniffs out Scandinavian heights better than most of the models it also pretty close with the ukmo up to 144 hr

I said yesterday on the southern regional thread that id punt for Scandinavian Icelandic block. And I see them beautiful beautiful charts and bingo there it is just like magic. Tonight it be gone lol. Na I think the troposphere starting to feel the last effects of the ssw. If we get the block then there's no doubt we could see cold march to.

Anyway amongst the doom and gloom of will it won't it Pompey is awaiting it's very much a likely event. Now looking ahead perhaps a strong indication due to the southerly track of depressions there's likely a form of northern blocking somewhere in our northern latitude. Will it be Greenland Iceland or Scandinavia it's very possible Iceland Scandinavian wedge of heights. Don't panic if heights are not of 1050mb because that's not needed but even a mediocre wedge of heights can do the business. Enjoy fellow southerners the Costa del south coast finally closed for business during the wintry chaos.

Scandinavian iceland link of heights here comes northern blocking if it's correct.

Scandinavian iceland link up heights maybe

192 would be better long term. as long as block gets in there first

Excellent level headed post.

I'd really hold out because we have had regular charts been thrown out from the end of December till now. I'm staying on the fence and Prozac till at least another 7 days.

my take this morning has thrown me out of prozac rehab of the fence with one foot on the ground. after looking through the models today and yesterday there's no doubt in my mind that the general theme is cold then colder then cold and wintry stuff wont be thawed quickly either with the 2m ground temps staying cold after each colder attack northerly then easterly then reload classic 80s style winter finally incoming. the anomaly plots from the ecm just show how intense this block with be with the back hole of calcutta even showing within the reliable timeframe. add in the strat effects and its a win win situation even though the full effects of the stratosphere are not yet even in place. as someone mentioned yesterday 2010 did not have a warming until later in the season and with added warmth this only helps destabilize an already beat up vortex. might not be a record breaking winter but what a start to 2019 for the wintry cold hunting fans. the gfs has massive segment of the polar vortex over europe and heights over and to our west. once the vortex over the state side fragments and shifts the more likely we have the chance to get a northern block i still reckon greenland iceland or scandinavia ares are still all very much in the longer term forecast. even the north pacific pdo is cooling of which is a feature i noticed in 09/10 winter although disregard this as a major player in these situations at this time anyway. the only possibility could be that our heights drift to far east or everything mapped could be a little to far east although im only speculating atm. its also equally or even more possible that things will shift further west which really would improve the chances of some deeper negative t850 temps. although -4 upper air temps in the cold settled conditions will be great the -8 in unsettled condition is a god send. but as it stands cold settled colder little more unsettled then cold with reloads possible as long as blocking is maintained. even to the point a northwesterly would do the trick with enriched cold across most of the northern hemisphere. and another point is that if the nao goes into negative territory then a west based nao looks extremely unlikely look at todays and yesterdays charts. ed stones chart hit snow tune has done the trick i believe anyway. i know ive only got one foot on the ground and one that's waiting to come of the fence, that's because of the one worry i have and that we miss out due to europe getting it all and were stuck in the middle. but much much more positive atm anyway.

no you are extremely right i see this chart yesterday and today i tend to agree in fact all your posts are very note worthy many thanks.

nearly all of the modelled stratospheric outputs , are showing this annoying feature although the ecm has strong height anomaly to our west. maybe things are far from resolved. its almost like the models have latched on to the idea of this warming effect , and have decided to chuck out eye candy. only for the strat or sister vortex segments to come and ruin the excitement, there's also the added warming which seem to be a thorn in uk potential side by pushing part of the vortex out to our west. although other models also have a segment to the south of the uk.. we could get lucky before the atlantic comes back. i noticed on the jma also a warm anomaly popping up over canada....... i dont know if this the infamous canadian warming that ive been watching for.

no nearly all of the modelled stratospheric outputs , are showing this annoying feature although the ecm has strong height anomaly to our west. maybe things are far from resolved. its almost like the models have latched on to the idea of this warming effect , and have decided to chuck out eye candy. only for the strat or sister vortex segments to come and ruin the excitement, there's also the added warming which seem to be a thorn in uk potential side by pushing part of the vortex out to our west. although other models also have a segment to the south of the uk.. we could get lucky before the atlantic comes back. i noticed on the jma also a warm anomaly popping up over canada....... i dont know if this the infamous canadian warming that ive been watching for.

Remember back in 2010 the gefs model was emphatically dominant on an idea similar to this. This time I'd be a little more encouraged as that data from back then could be good data used for this similar situation. But of course I'm not an expert but it's a case of wait and see.

good post. i also see the siberian ridge returning as our side vortex segment drops down into europe and eastern europe, in turn becoming unsettled into the mediterranean area with more free movement of ridges getting dominant to our west northwest or directly north.

I have a feeling that russian Siberian heights could be exactly what will help push our ridge of heights out west with segment of the PV dropping down into Scandinavian side. So in other words bouncing between two blocks ours and russian/Siberian. As long as our heights stick around this is a possibility for trend towards colder. I'm not sure whether 7th of January is worth punting on again I've said the 7th for changes. But after many Prozac moments recently I'm back in rehab having bit of faith in the weather god's, and singing edd stones, chart topping snow tune lol. Very interested to see where this goes.

I thought I'd pop in just to say good night and long live the ecm.

No I don't at all think high latitude block is possible. Reason way to much energy going over the top of the block. I've been very frustrated by the lack of high latitude blocking before the vortex got on a mission before the stratosphere warming there was a Scandinavian ridge which was robust giving some a snow event but since then it's been rather disappointing. Although not discounting anything further into January it all looks a mess. If the UK high can move to our west or northwest this would be ideal but none of the models ATM are seeing this as a possible outcome.

I said the 7th. shortly after saying this the charts just got worse and worse. still we got the Prozac run in just over an hour perhaps some even worse charts to cry over lol. But in honesty some of the top posters in here were saying it's not guaranteed. And now we can see why. It does go to show how exceptional the winter of 2009 and 2010 was. That blocking over Greenland was a beast 1050 mb that just deflected everything under. Also the jet stream been a bit of a pain in the butt and the jet is not really interested in taking a holiday into north Africa like 09/10. Still given my true sorrow than my 7th January turning point is way of the mark still plenty of winter yet. If we get nothing this winter, then I will have to surrender to that the weather and atmospheric sciences just completely out wits any super computer and human input.