MR EXTREMES

i think all models seemed to flip tonight most likely due to a powering up vortex. but all the time scandi has space for some type of heights then this will disrupt an already erratic start vortex. but are very close to a cold spell. if we keep getting the dive bombing lows nw to se we still in with a chance. amongst other drivers to. also been a few years where scandi blocking has been underestimated, and at this type of timeframe it unlikely to be on the money totally. might also be the year the soi and easterly qbo make entrance to the winter parade.

yes that's a beautiful evolution.

anyway for the coldies i have a plan we can hirer donald trump to build us a wall in the mid atlantic like this mornings ecm. mind you something like this but with the block bit further north into greenland would work. but unlikely to be even close to the evolution projected of coarse.

indeed my thoughts exactly. i do not however buy into the greenland ridge way to much energy blasting through this area. but the nw southeast directions you rightly pointed out are a little cause for optimism with mediterranean unsettled which was a bonus feature in 09/10. but with chaos theory involved id be skeptical of greenland heights at this point. but of coarse just my opinion. putting the gfs 192, gem 192, and the gefs at 192 it does look below average temps above average rainfall. often windy cool to cold wet. scotland and northern england high ground very likely to see some wintriness. now we await the ecm, but i wouldn't trust any forecast beyond 5 to 7 day timeframe. .

ecm is wobbling with the other models i suspect there's spanners flying everywhere and that's why the models are a bit erratic vortex driven early days promising signs. depressions are definitely diving se direction and the jet is disrupted. in 09/10 it was a common feature. my only fear is that 2014 started similar. or perhaps something like an icelandic block. now that would be interesting considering the cold air running down into eastern europe including scandinavia.

not a bad chart . this current rain band seems a bit further south than first thought.

absolutely alot for the models to deal with this season atm looking like a 2014 rerun. although the tanked -ao might also be trowing alsorts of spanners in the models predictions.

messy picture this morning. october normally has a habit of throwing out exaggerated northern blocking..

euro slug is back zonal pattern really wants to roll in. hmmmmm few days on might be better. gfs ramps up the vortex. if the ecm gem gefs backs away from blocking it wouldn't be the first time.

pretty chilly -4 uppers keep an eye though at the blocking will it wont it moment coming up. no complaining at -4 uppers in october though.

very 09/10 if i remember rightly, a large part of the vortex remained persistent though the winter on the siberian side. and correct me if i'm wrong didn't we get a record breaking negative nao in 2009/10 winter? anyway yes the gfs gets very excited but the gefs is a little more less progressive. cant wait till this evenings runs. hurricane season in the atlantic has gone quiet so could be the last of them. but happy to have heights over the uk which does also look a possibility.

close ecm gefs at day ten for something wintry. heights just dont have the legs to make it north or northwest enough but depending how strong the mid atlantic block is theres still hope for more seasonal type weather. good to see the euro slug fading. vortex really powering up now ao and nao going into positive although this all depends on whether the gfs has the outcome correct. few more days and we will see if heights remain lower to our south and some form of blocking to take hold. pretty close though....... although the gem has really gone off on one. but both gem and ecm gefs have better chances towards colder conditions. nasty little low pressure around scotland.

Yes I agree looking like a monsoon season. But a very quick flip from blocking to monsoon. But it's only a projection atm. December to remember didn't start till end of November or around about. But that's some unsettled weather on the way. But very fluid patterns now.

indeed some eye candy today. i think one background signal thats been extremely telling is the southern oscillation index/SOI atmosphere very el nino even though neutral enso. hurricane season also churned up the atmosphere what with flatlined solar activity certainly brings a little bit of a 09/10 type set up. of coarse might sound like an evil knievel ramp, and yes things can change, but any form of block out to our west or northwest will aid in further developments especially first part of winter. or could be back end winter like 2008. but the models are gaining momentum on the idea gem also different still possible cold shot. although i tend you wait for the ecm to bring it to the 72hrs point then confidence grows further. we shall have to wait and see, but i remember the gefs ensembles from winter 2010 and the cool down was slow and steady decline. seems to be showing similar in the last few runs gem gfs gefs and ecm to a point. AND THEN YESTERDAYS........

although ecm is not heading the same way as gfs yet. mild wet windy north. might be a little dryer in the far south mild to warm possibly. but with such a erratic pattern almost impossible to call any forecast beyond 5 to 7 days. mjo still hanging around phase 1 to 8 these phase 8 and 1 were helpful in 09/10 for northern blocking. but for now we must sit back and watch how rigorous the polar vortex gets. at the moment looks like its ramping up. but even so an interesting winter coming up. 240 ecm zonal.

gfs in the extended range looks interesting not much support but nothing like getting excited about, will it wont it lol.

gem low coming round a pretty strong scandinavian block.

interesting ukmo tonight. all models do struggle with such a flip to a mobile situation, but the ukmo has one of them classic shallow heights vs chunks of low pressure being thrown out by the ever strengthening vortex. unsettled and continuous forecasters nightmare. but wet windy is certainly the dominant pattern.

The last chart not far of a northeasterly blast. Or northerly something a little interesting but then again the hurricane season is in full swing to bring us some stormy weather. From Sunday anyway.

With the soi in such a negative el nino atmospheric set up. Increased disruption to the polar vortex could continue if I remember right October was fine but November became unsettled with heights eventually pulling north east then retrograde to Greenland where heights had nice time setting up shop. 1060mb Greenland heights prove there blocking influence definitely disrupts vortex formation. Perhaps first Arctic blast setting up sometime in October. Low solar activity amongst other options certainly would lean towards a more wintry winter compared to the last few years. Strong support has also shown in other years for blocking and epically failed but this year has more factors on side for more seasonal weather than not.

This also goes with the weakened zonal winds which seem to be forecasting continuation of weak zonal wind. As said southerly warmth being pumped up into the pole is always a good thing leading into winter. Also the longevity of a neg nao must also show that possibility of Greenland heights this winter could feature much more this coming season. Any way onto the models hurricane season well underway only a matter of time before the unsettled weather takes over. But wouldn't rule out another fine spell in October even chance of Indian summer. But not complaining about this beautiful warmth and sunshine.

The signs are there for return to heat 3ecm runs and the Ecm runs haven't been as volitle either. But the Gfs was first to deal the Spanish plume. But the Ecm runs look good for a classic first week's or two of July. Loads of blocking flapping all over the place. And the azores heights stronger now as we enter summer proper. Beautiful Ecm

I think modelling in sea breezes cloud cover there's many times the temps and length of heatwaves is always been messy. My punt is hot weeks end and some spectacular storms hopefully.

37.2c If heat builds before storms then 38c not in possible