MR EXTREMES

blimey gefs, talk about a tail of two extremes from very very wet and windy to cold snowy. but the rainfall totals are a worry bigtime. this low is stalling and its a pretty major winters start really.

Yes that's I was thinking. But in reality we need the jet to buckle or head on a southerly track. Each time we get a slider it holds hope that some heights can build in the right areas.

very very worrying rainfalls and wind snow forecasters nightmare im sure.

not the worst mjo pattern. id thought northerlies and stalling fronts. like nick said sst are low to the west to that's without the pool of really cold air developing around greenland. and heights down through russia. i wouldn't rule out something wintry anywhere in the uk.

model watching been painful and i've dropped any ideas of anything to cold in southern england. back to the drawing board and i think might have to start learning about indian ocean impacts globally. but these chaotic zonal flows can suddenly change i still believe over time the wave breaking effects will be ongoing. on a micro scale few hundred miles south and its game on. but as i said yesterday and earlier in the season my 2 recent years of interest was 2009/10 and 2014. its looking more like the 2014 at the moment. and if january is heading the same direction might be a good call. but these types of set ups are good for northern island scotland and northern england perhaps east coast as systems move through the country. still plenty of time for change but vortex 1 northern blocking 0.

my take on the models is that its becoming more and more clear that a southeasterly tracking jet and holes of heights popping up over the northern hemisphere are really ramping up some of the rainfall spikes again are absolutely incredible. now the way i see it is there's no doubt cold shots are lining up. 09/10 did not have an early warming of the stratosphere, but what was a feature that winter was the wave breaking effects this was on going just as we seen this season. so no sudden stratospheric warming but next best thing. also the vortex holiday is a welcome visit over outside of the pole into scandinavia. my punt would be cold shots from the northwest and northerlies then as heights have a reshuffle eventually a northeasterly perhaps eastlerly as on of these little sliders will dig far enough south to really open the flood gates to wintry potential even though there is already a few showing. law of averages would suggest eventually all that cold filtering down into mid latitudes.but as soon as that jet stream has a more zonal influence and if heights build to our south then you could safely say cold reduction likely. but until then we have cross model agreement. and to be fair i've seen in the past all models going for greenland scandi blocks and drop the idea at t96hrs. but this season is pretty much inline with some of the classic winters of old like 80s. but im still 80% at moment on some pretty wintry weather. gefs only has one cold shot. ecm only has one cold shot. gfs has a few cold shots with cold established with longer duration. gem has one cold shot. so not totally a done deal but more than likely at least a cold shot in the next 10 days. nao weak positive and ao up and down like hookers knickers. so no doubt alot going on.

ecm nice hemispheric picture going forwards tasty.

Looks like a wedge of heights might just be slower evolution.

Thing is though still way out in lala land. But always a possibility

Yeah I'd give it a few more days at least. I'd be surprised if this season ends up a dud. My closet worst year to this would be 2014 was zzonal but the North done good. Awful down here on the sunny Costa del south coast. But the models really do underestimate the blocks and wave breaking into the strat. But it's pretty clear to see that the jet stream is wanting a holiday south. But definitely the gefs has been very keen on siberian side mother vortex. But residual vortex segments can also create chaos with in the models. But I've been watching and expecting a more Eastern side dominated polar vortex with a split and warming later on into January. But the jigsaw is big and things are at the moment moving towards a colder trend. But also seen eye candy epically fail. So few more days and we could be closer to a real blast of cold or a tropical bqq winter. But the azores heights is not its usual self. Neither is the jet stream. If anything the models seem extremely keep on cold to our east only a matter of time.

It would certainly look this way. I wouldn't expect mainstream scientists to except this. But certainly looks like solar minimum running the pattern this year. Great seeing vortex going on holiday to siberian side. Qbo dropping like a stone. We might have to have few bites of the cherry before anything really sets in. But the nw se alinement certainly a promising feature so far. Jet stream definitely on a southerly track.

dont know how many times i have to say this. but gfs has crossed the line lol. some nice looking charts today.

Plenty of wave attacks on the strat plus a chance of a moderate warming. but does seem to have backed of a bit from this idea. Nothing set in stone beyond our cold spell. But these residual heights are a headache not knowing placements depths few hundred miles west and it could turn into a UK winter wonderland. Might have to wait awhile more. But so far it's been a very chaotic but interesting couple of months.

gem pulling heights out west, see how the two air masses are fighting for dominance another cold attack looks likely to win out if this is the correct evolution. gefs is an example to of how these deep sliding lows can dominate. although a bit further north would help but lots of time yet to change either way interesting though.

icon is a beaut and gfs ukmo and gem all knife edge stuff but no doubt some pretty beefy cold snaps/spell. gfs got some more cold for us in fi.

agreed even a northwesterly flow brings in -4 upper air temps which not bad but not surprising at all the cold bottled to our north. the pulling out west by the ecm further on looks a likely bet as deep lows swing down to our east and southeast. differences in depth of pressure gradients outline strong possibility of heights to our west deep lows to our east south east. with pattern holding.

wow been very soggy milder today though, interesting weather on the way.

I'm interested as it's all weather. And some seriously wet windy weather to come. Beyond this cold chances are stacking up.

it would suggest there going for there own model and ecm so maybe a bit different this time.

because the nao is negative lower heights go over the top of the pole dropping down into scandinavia eastern europe and to be honest the ao is only likely to be positive for awhile whilst vortex is squeezed over the siberian side of the arctic.

cant argue with that lol. all broadly similar there just weather charts that look scrummy for cold seekers. loooooooking goood 192

thats a good spot. so there closely following each other that's good thing. the two models combined are not bad. plus gefs then yes good. bit more cool wet windy then we get a chance, then a blip then, maybe a real chance.

or not maybe a cold snap depends how much that shallow block around iceland seen shallow scandi ridges play havoc on model outputs before overestimating or unestermating.

i agree that would develop into a cold spell not a cold snap. the normally rampant east coast of the united states is a little more calmer. most of the cold action is into asia siberia. vortex definitely under the weather. but of coarse lots could go different. but it seem likely cold start to december likely.

this mornings ecm was very nice with a proper blocking heights into the atlantic.