Frank Trough

hi all, interesting situation unfolding for today. Reham (spelling?) with our local forecast this morning appeared to be backing away from snow for coastal parts of Hampshire/Sussex/Dorset and also seemed to play down precipitation amounts (although she did then say that if the precip intensified it could get interesting). Then, on the way to work John Hammond on 5 live indicated that for the most part away from Cornwall it would be snow. Channel Islands was the coldest place this morning apparently! once we pick up the southeasterly wind we should tap into a little bit of that colder air ahead of the front. Also, looking at the rainfall radar, that front is currently VERY active, which is a good sign. So, what's going to happen!!? no idea - it's certainly marginal. Heart says the precip will be heavy enough to be snow, head says rain turning to light snow and then petering out. Paul

yes! i'm so p1ssed i can't tell! christ, help! i'm awaiting the next radar update!

incredible scenes here! after the darts i'd given up - why? looking at the radar (and i wait for the next update) precip seems to be developing. who's still up? (i'm trousered now, though

well, i popped out this evening and since i've been gone the precip has died on its "bottom" (ha ha! the word ar5e was removed from the post!). I too can't really see where anything is going to come from tomorrow. i'm probably missing something, but surely we should see some signs over the continent by now?

that's what i'm hoping, but it doesn't really seem to be happening. looking at the radar, the precip is fragmenting as it gets east, apart from that to the south, which appears to be staying south. the orientation looks more NE to SW to me.

that first little band has fragmented along the coast and seems to be further north. This is intriguing. What i'd love to see, and i'm hoping for, is some of that stuff over the channel and france to pick up some moisture over the channel, pep up, then pummel us. i'm drunk, now though, so ignore anything i say.

just popped outside and i can confirm that light snow is falling here now, too.

yep, and also, the amount of precip behind it is growing in extent if not intensity.....yet....

yep, the lows are way further south, which although reduces the initial threat of snow it does prolong the cold. Just one run obviously, UKMO and ECMF will be worth a look. as you say, it is absolutely glorious out, it really is. Biting cold, snow cover with the threat of more. Top stuff.

while Sharpe is undoubtedly good, i don't think it beats "wolfie" in full flow. I met him on the Pompey to Ryde ferry once. My claim to fame. I've just replayed the last few hours on the radar and i'm now convinced that, while it's not massively heavy, the precip is developing in extent, both in the first band and the second. No doubt i'll proved totally wrong in an hour's time - it wouldn't be the first time.

the waiting is horrible! each radar update is stressfull! why do we do it? to my untrained eye, the southern extent of the first band looks to have developed a bit. This is exciting stuff. Maybe i should go away for an hour and watch "wolfie" in the darts?

most of the forecasts i've seen (admittedly not since yesterday night) suggested it would be light for us, but prolonged, with the heavier stuff mainly confined to the far southeast. I think we'll see something.

ok, so i haven't stopped looking at the radar. It now looks like there is a second area of precip developing over northeast France behind the band which is (slowly) pushing towards us. It all looks quite light to me, at this stage. Plenty of time, yet, though. fingers crossed for us all! what a spell of weather this has been - easily the best i can remember properly since i've stopped being 10 years old.

i think i'm going to stop looking at the radar!! the heavier precip seems to have stalled a bit over kent...i'm starting to imagine things. I think i'm snowblind. on another note, the 12z has the first low further south for tuesday keeping us all colder with any precip stalling and dying - everything further west so still cold here. Plenty of interest i think!

my thoughts exactly!! It would much easier if i didn't watch the radar but somehow the temptation is too great. the hours i've spent watching showers pack into the southeast and then fade and die just before reaching Hampshire.

yes, just had a look at the fax charts. This does look to be a little bonus - related to a trough rather than the upper front which, as you say, is predicted to be sitting over us tomorrow. Interesting stuff - much radar watching required in the next 24 hours i think!

yes, that's very true. It'll get here i think - even a fair few hours of light snow to add to what we've got would be good. I haven't seen any local forecasts for tomorrow - what's the score with that? i thought that was meant to be a bit further north (along the M4 north)?

hello, i think it will be and wait and see for the middle of the week. Always more likely to be rain on the coasts, especially with a southeasterly modifying the air a little as it comes off the channel. However, with all the embedded cold i wouldn't rule anything out in this current spell! I would say inland Hampshire will see snow. as for today, that precip over kent/surrey/sussex is making painfully slow progress westwards. some heavier bursts in it - i think it's just a case of watching the radar now to see its track and whether it peters out or (hopefully) peps up! Be nice to see that band which has been peppering the cherbourgh peninsula for two days to push north west - wishful thinking maybe? Paul

1997 wasn't it? apart from that april snow in about 2008. fingers crossed - i'm not getting my hopes up just yet although i do think we'll something. I think sussex, surrey and kent will get pasted..

it looked cold but the front will have to pep up midweek. I remember the famous 91 forecast which predicted widespread snow as far as dorset which didn't happen for us and i can't help seeing parallels with the latest output. anyhow, i'm excited at the prospect and things will change before wednesday. look forward to staying up all night on this forum watching lamposts! good luck snowgal, Paul

well, that forecast downplayed midweek but gave us a chance towards the weekend. I must say, i think we'll get something but we're going to need to stayed glued to the fax charts and, more importantly, the weather radar from tuesday onwards. it looks marginal for decent snow to me. Next weekend is a long way off, though, and a slight shift in the pattern or a tightening of the easterly could make a difference.

hello all in the far south. well, how's it looking? I think what we need is that low that sinks southwest through early next week to intensify, as shown by the 06z. 12z is till good, though. There has been a lot of mention of '91 in the main model thread which indeed, was very good for south east england and central southern england. However, down on the coast it wasn't good at all. I lived on the IOW at the time and, though it was very cold, we were almost dry. Just snizzle as it fazed out. The projected easterly at the end of the week, i would suspect, probably wouldn't deliver much. having said that, i'm just hoping for something midweek initially. The countryfile forecast in 15 mins could be interesting. here's hoping!

Hi Shiny_Bottom, that really is a positive spin! rain is brilliant for the type of fishing i do (for mullet) but wind is dreadful - although you are right that it doesn't bother the fish it does bother me. There's no point trying to fish into anything above a 10mph wind with tiny floats and 4lb line! it's definitely been windy in Hampshire everytime i've had the chance to go. And to be honest, i don't see an awful lot of high pressure on the 0z until FI - lets hope it changes! *edit* - apart from Tuesday next week when it looks nice - when i'll be at work. Good to see the isobars tightening for next weekend though, when i won't be at work. Excellent stuff. tight lines!

i've noticed recently that there have been a few comments along the lines of "actually, it's not been that bad" which i suppose in reality it hasn't (last saturday aside in the south). However, i can confirm that it doesn't matter how sunny or dry it is the thing that is annoying me most is the windspeed! looking at the 00z it looks constantly windy. I cycle to work each day and try to go fishing at weekends and subsequently, wind strength is fairly important to me. There's something about a constant 20mph wind in the summer that really get's my goat. I suppose i should live somewhere more continental. IMO the warm, calm humid weather at the end of june was about as good as it gets. also, i saw the BBC weather forecast for tomorrow earlier - seems the rain is moving through much earlier now i.e overnight (depending on where you live)? South coast looks dry by tomorrow morning, with perhaps the rain feeding back in during the afternoon? obviously the wind is going to be howling, though.

right, it's snowing here heavily but looking at the radar it is that little tongue of ppn. Now then, is all that ppn over the west going to move southeast? the GFS says so, the meto say so, the radar currently says no! what's going on?