Frank Trough

....i would take the wash out saturday for a better sunday and for what the 06z then goes on to show - much more postive in the mid/long term and more akin to the ECM this morning. it's the 06z remember - in winter we would be told not to worry too much, wouldn't we?! let's see where it all sits in the ensembles. Frankly, i won't worry about that low for the weekend until the UKMO shows it, though.

that's at t+ what? and the operational has virtually no support for that low pressure anyway. That's a fabulously cherry-picked negative chart - interesting you chose to go all the way out there in FI to pick it. looks better for the south at least in the reliable - and beyond - compared to what we've had.

FI has chopped and changed a bit run from run from what i've seen. Plus the GFS 00Z is a proper "outlier" in terms of pressure for the south at the end of the run. Let's just get the initial pressure rise from the southwest inside t+144 before we worry about anything else! Obviously i'm desperately trying to find a way for the "settled" weather to remain into week 3! (because i'm on holiday that week!). Perhaps i've picked the wrong week - maybe the last full week of july will be better.... what kind of numpty books a week off that coincides with a major, global event happening predominantly outdoors in the UK?

you'll be sure to let us know when there's some good news, won't you?! Matt Hugo also said the second half of february was going to be very cold due to northern blocking as that was what the ECM 30 dayer was indicating. It wasn't. I have the sinking feeling he's more likely to be right this time around. the METO further outlook has now delayed any promise of better weather until the end of july as well.

well, regardless of its own ensembles the operational output has some support from it's earlier runs, the GEM 00z and it does seem to fit fairly well with Meto view of things (more settled in the southwest initially, becoming settled more widely). It might be a bit quick with the evolution (or completely wrong) but you never know..... Lets not forget the GFS spent a good part of last week predicitng that this week would be more settled before caving in... that's today's straw firmly clutched!

it's a herocially awful run again. The GFS at least is convinced the first half or two thirds of july is going to be unsettled and generally unpleasant. there is no light at the end of the GFS tunnel. after the persistent trough that will plague this week and weekend starts to drift away another low comes smashing across the atlantic bringing another stormy weekend for the 14th/15th and then sets up camp in our vicinity. Sound familiar?!

in that case i guess we should see a backtrack in time from the Meto extended outlook which at present does offer some hope for the second half of july. they seem to favour a scenario which was shown by a couple of recent ECM runs which shows the atlantic ridge eventually pushing over the UK. That said, my leave for the third week of july will be cancelled in due course i think! Better to hope for something in early august i think.

every festival i've been to i went on foot. It's this bloody obsession with driving everywhere (they would park by the stage if they could) and having to take the contents of the house to go camping for a weekend.

As an exiled Caulkhead i completely agree. They shouldn't be taking that number of cars over regardless of the weather. There should be some sort of park and ride scheme based on the mainland - or better still, just don't provide parking anywhere and make them all come over as foot passengers and get special buses to and from the site. The IOW cannot cope with it's own volume of traffic, let alone 50,000 more people bringing cars. I shall be watching the weather radar on saturday night/sunday morning with some interest....

i'm not sure it's been put back. Next week has never been shown to be "hot". Pressure builds from the south inside t+144 on the GFS (similar on the UKMO-although this looks somewhat different at 144 with a flow off the near continent) -not wall to wall sunshine, not hot, but clearly different to what we have experienced. steady as she goes. I'd settle for a more average second half of june, that's for sure. Anything better would be a bonus.

does this mean that central and southeast england are now likely to see average rainfall (as far as they can see?). Different wording from yesterday which suggested above average for these areas. i guess it's all nitpicking of the wording at this range.

The sky has a strange blue tint to it this morning....can someone explain what that is? Still a lot of doom and gloom around..not suprising given the weekend we're about to experience. However, i think it still looks like a slightly improving situation from about Tuesday onwards...doesn't it? At least for the southeast. Not a heatwave, not wall to wall sunshine and still outside t+144 but better? The ECM operational this morning looks much more like the mean from last night's 12z and offers something a bit better. maybe i'm viewing it all wrong - and obviously there is plenty of scope for it all to go wrong.

you can get a pretty good feel for the model output by checking on here first to see who has posted....looking at the model output i wasn't disappointed. I wonder who else might pop up later?! it feels a bit like the "jam tomorrow" scenario in winter at the moment for those seeking something drier. The GFS has progressively delayed any chance of drier weather and now we see unsettled, wet conditions dominating well into next week. As for writing off June, i would be a little more cautious. it's only the 11th. Quite a few people (who were they again?) wrote off the whole of may which ended up looking a bit silly. Still, as it stands, more flooding, more dreadful commutes andmore rivers the colour of real ale to come. *edit* the ECM also keeps anything decent out in FI....will it get any closer? although having said that, it does tally quite well with the latest 10 day forecast from the METO.

surely it was awful wasn't it? you said the whole of summer was a write off in the middle of May , much like you are now for june. Will be interesting to discuss with you how things have panned out at the end of June. If you were a betting man you would be skint. Pubic enigmas greatest hits, featuring: "the pattern is locked in for months", "the trough will only go in one direction - south west", "there could be alot of rain around in the southeast - one keep an eye on" - the B-side of which was "actually there 10 days of blue skies". just jesting! I'm not sure all that much is set in stone beyond the early part of bank holiday weekend (which will be fairly awful). I'm not sure it will be as bad as is being made out (although i'm on holiday so that might jinx it)!

it isn't just "unsettled" or "settled". There are a plethora of solutions in between - i.e. weather. I quite like the trend from the GFS and ECM tonight (and it follows on the runs this morning). Cooler Jubilee weekend everywhere (it was always going to be, wasn't it?!) but i don't think it'll be a disaster in the south and west. Then the GFS and ECM both indicate the Atlantic low pushing warmer air up from the south from midweek (next week). Plenty of scope for change, obviously and inevitably there will be.

well, we all know what would happen in winter, don't we?!! The UKMO has the trough further east at t+120, especially compared to the GEM. Would the UKMO be miles out at that time frame? There is a bit of a trend to move the high west on some of the models since yesterday evening, though. *edit* - the ECM has it further west at 120 as well.....hmmmmm.

is the latest METO update not a little bit out of kilter with the ECM and GFS outputs? How is it going to be generally unsettled during the second half of next week? i'm a bit confused. It certainly wouldn't be cloudy and wet in the northwest if the ECM and GFS are correct, would it? UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 May 2012 to Friday 8 Jun 2012: Rather unsettled at first with showers or longer outbreaks of rain in most parts, perhaps heavy at times. The north and west of the United Kingdom are most likely to see more persistent rain. There is an increasing chance of drier, brighter weather towards the first weekend of June for many parts, however the northwest is likely to remain rather cloudy throughout with spells of rain.

hmmmm. The ECM ensemble mean from T+ 168 is rather different from the operational in what happens to the trough. What does that mean, exactly?! is the operational likely to be nearer the mark in these situations or is the mean a better guide?

yes, but that's the GFS 06z at t+192. i wouldn't get too worried about that for now. many changes to come although until we get to that point. The points made above about this upcoming "improved spell" are all valid - and some members absence in the model output discussion over the last few days has been notable. They'll be back if that GFS chart gets to T+ 144 though. Whatever the summer brings i'm relieved the doomongering about summer being over and the April pattern being "locked in" until spring 2013 etc has been wrong. In fact, this week gone may not have been very nice but it was a lot drier down here than was showed at T+ 162 and another dry week to comewill help those rivers stop looking like the colour of real ale.

is that really true? it is more likely than not in any given year that the pattern established in May lasts until the end of August? or do you just mean more likely for certain pattern types? Anyway, that aside, after a couple of dry days over the weekend the outlook after that continues to look awful. There's no denying that.

well, you can look at trends or look across the models -and then take it with a pinch of salt. both the ECM and GFS suggest a trend to warmer more settled weather in FI. Of course the details will change. i'll say this though. For Thursday (3rd) the GFS consistently predicted a flow from the ne/e/se right from T+384. Yes the exact details have chopped and changed but from my point of view (for planning a fishing a trip) it's been a useful tool. i'm going to try it again. And it'll probably fail!

The ECM buys into the easterly in a big way this evening. I have been watching May 3rd since it first arrived at t+ 384 on the GFS and it was consistently showing a flow from the east/southeast (i could have predicted that when i booked the day off a month ago because that's not the direction i want!). As you say though, the GFS has somewhat dropped the idea having picked up on it in its outer reaches. We'll see - that's two ECMs in a row that back an easterly flow developing next week. whatever happens i do think we'll see temperatures recover -most options on the table tonight lend themselves to that. this fits nicely with the Met office outlook today. i think the trend has moved toward a change in the last 48 hours.

the coming weeks are still spring. The ECM goes out as far as 3rd of may. May is still spring. The met office update hints at less unsettled conditions than recently and also suggests temps to be average or just below. Hardly record breaking? There are definitely "hints" at more of a flow of the near continent for the start of May. Surely to break records in may you would need constant reload northwesterlies or a trough just stuck over the UK? That met office update doesn't back that, does it?

it has been a "warm and sunny high" here every afternoon this week. It's been lovely. More of the same from the next high pressure would be fine by me - especially if we get more of a continental feed which has been hinted at, sunshine will be more widespread. Sunshine is forecast to be more widespread tomorrow as well. Sea temps along the south coast are higher than last year indicating just how mild it has been since early february. they have shot up since the start of March so a nice early start to the fishing season for me. it's been almost exclusively mild for ages and will continue to be predominantly mild/potentially warm for the near future. just hope we get some useable rain at the weekend.

cloud has broken here in North Hants in the last hour.