Frank Trough

Heavens to Purgatroid, you're right there, no real warmth showing as yet. We're saving up the above average temperatures for November through to January and i notice the CFS is firming up on this idea as can be seen by this morning's run: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php very mild winter to come if the CFS is on the right track which i'm sure it will be. As i've heard numerous times on here, "things always balance themselves out in the end".

isn't this early spring now?! feels like it, i.e. not quite as bad as winter. Apparently spring will really get going through June and early July and then summer will arrive for a few days in late July before August heralds in autumn on brisk northwesterly winds.

I've been trying to think of ways we could make the summer prospects better than they are. Something to lift the doom and gloom. I've decided that the best way would be to abandon the current climatic average base conditions and start again. Let's just use the 2007 -2012 average as our "base". That way the chance of an above average summer month for temperature and below average rainfall would increase. It would make everybody feel much better, wouldn't it?! Suddenly June is looking good with that sceuro trough - should be an "above average month" and could be very dry. i feel much better already.

And we probably need to apply "SP1986's Law" in this situation - i.e. the worst case scenario for the UK is more likely to be correct! Seriously, who would bet against the ECM? not me. Mind you, the mean still isn't as bad as the operational (as you'd expect) which is probably still showing a worst case scenario, but i'm afraid i have no faith in the dear old GFS. I want to hug it for trying to give us some hope but i'm afraid i don't buy it (especially as the UKMO looks like it would go somewhere down the ECM route). Basically, the UK is just a trough magnet.

I was thinking that about May, but quite frankly what we have currently is certainly not an improvement from last year. This current weather is absolutely disgusting and is an embarassment. And last May at least managed a cracking final week. It just seems (as the doomongers have been spewing out since March) that high pressure finds it impossible to set up anywhere favourable for the UK. I'm not thrilled at the prospect of mid Atlantic or Scandinavian heights, both are likely to be pretty rubbish in terms of weather on the ground, although the latter may be more dependent as time goes on on the proximity of low pressure to the south. Fortunately i'm off to Sri Lanka until early June - at least it will be warm there. I fully expect to be greeted by a cold, gusting northwest wind when i get off the plane on my return. anything better will be a bonus. just seen the METO charts posted above by Gavin. An 80% chance for the south to have an average or below summer. anybody know how good they are? probably as good as any other long range tool i guess.

The ECM monthly outlook seems to be defaulting to below average temperatures. It's outlook for April was solidly below average and yet we are seeing three days of temps over 20c in the southeast. It now has that virtually retrospective peak at the start before heading back to default. After a few days of cooler, more unsettled weather things look set to settle down again towards May. Remains to be seen what conditions are actually like on the ground if high pressure takes charge (as seems to be the theme at present) depending on where it sets up and what sort of feed we get. Worth noting that the met office have been going for a warmer, drier more settled period in May for a while now. Big difference from last year, especially rainfall wise.

why don't you post much in the winter? i think it would be more your scene. No doubt now that things are going nosedive as we progress through next week, hence the fumbling in the trousers of all the coldies. I'm not quite sure what they expect though - probably ice days and lying snow. Still, i'm glad i'm out of the country. The Ecm looks horrible in its later stages: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif that's a chart i don't want to see repeated very often once we get beyond May. The met office longer range indicates some kind of easterly flow setting up after that and the GFS had showed this regulalrly in the last couple of days in its later output: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png Of course, we'll have to wade through the posts about "locked in" cold before that can happen.

I'm sensing an increasing pessimism about the summer. In the model thread Snowking has suggested that the overwhelming signal for the summer is a "sceuro trough" (i assume with ridging to the south west?) - which wouldn't be great at all for warmth and would surely deliver a cool, unsettled summer. Having said that, in the south it might at least be a bit drier than last year in that set up instead of having a mean upper trough anchored over the UK. Added to that, it doesn't look like we're going to dodge the bullet of the unsettled regime setting in from later next week and SP1986 (in the model thread) suggests that this pattern may well get "locked in" (where have we heard that before?) which would tie in with the "sceuro trough" dominated summer. It's funny how only cold or unsettled patterns have any chance of being "locked in" these days. Also, i've been following the CFS a little more closely this year just for interest and in my opinion it is gradually settling on an average/slightly below May and is gradually backing away from the "two good summer months" scenario. I now have a low expectation for this summer again having been a bit more positive a while ago. I suppose cool and dry i could tolerate - cool and wet again i couldn't.

yes, that's absolutely true and maybe i misread the original post. I read it as meaning that high pressure won't have any influence and lows will be more southerly tracking and crashing straight through. That still doesn't look the case at present, with the southeast still looking relatively dry. The ridge may be downgraded but it's still there and it's still influencing....and while it's there there's always the realistic chance it will ridge further north affecting more of the country. The influence is there on the ECM at day 4, just not for the further north and northwest but that's pretty normal for the UK, isn't it?

Why will things be corrected south? because the Atlantic will be stronger than currently modeled? The thing is, a while ago you said you thought the deep cold would continue through April, presumably because Atlantic was too weak vs the cold block? I don't follow your logic. Mind you, given the recent past you would be forgiven for thinking there is never any chance of "nice" weather! back to the models, and pretty good agreement for the general conditions between the ECM and GFS 06z at t+ 192 (didn't see that very often during the winter!) Looks good for a period of drier, warmer weather especially the further south and east you go....but possibly not exclusively so. Altogether i'm feeling much happier about the outlook....sea temps starting rise and the fishing season now looming finally!

I hope it's not the warmest day of 2013! 21.5 C, Gravesend.

Oh well, that's that then. i'm emigrating. The ECM has been fairly consistent recently with building pressure from the south as the trough pushes east. I'm happy for that trend to continue. In fact, given that it's quite a dry run later on i think i would "bank" the ECM - there is at least some energy going over the top of the high at 240. Any really nice weather is still a long way out though. It still hasn't got inside t+192 on the ECM.

much as i would love it to be right, i can't believe the GFS scenario because of the complexities of the situation in the early part of next week. No doubt that any really mild push is being pushed back again. are we now looking towards the end of another week before that happens? a lot of hoops to jump through before then. can anybody say with any certainty what would happen if the UKMO 144 verified? more trough disruption....more delays? The NAVGEM is very groundhog day... i'm cold and fed up. hoping for a heroic ECM tonight to smash the cold away...not holding my breath though.

it's properly snowing in Fleet. The snow is much heavier than i would have thought by looking at the radar.

no sign at all? ECM at t+144 that would be a fairly marked change i would think. interesting output tonight i think. GFS wants to prolong the cold and the way things have gone you wouldn't write it off, although it only really delays the change at this stage. maybe the ECM is overdoing the atlantic for a change? looking foward to watching tonight.

But they'll be different tommorrow. Actually, they'll be different on the 12z's. They change from run to run - the only remotely consistent feature from the CFS recently has been an above average July for some parts in north west Europe. It can't even decide on April yet - although we perhaps don't need the CFS to tell us that it might need to be a month of two halves if it's going to come out anywhere near average temps wise.

yep. Rain on the coast without a doubt. But all pointless because it's the 06z and won't verify. The only good thing about the pointless easterlies is that at least they are being shown as predominantly dry - so despite the fact it is a milder run for the south and south and south west it wouldn't be very nice at all. So i'm happy for it not to verify. The output at present is purga-tory as far as i'm concerned. ..and the ice age endeth on the 06z....it must occasionally be right just through luck surely? throw enough darts and all that....

so the GFS operational is wrong at T+144 but the ensembles have pulled it out the hat for 7th April? genius.

isn't that partly the point of a model discussion forum? the GFS is a model - and currently it shows a breakdown. Why should there be "consequences" for that? It's worth noting that although the GFS looks too quick and doesn't have any support (at the moment) the met office forecast suggests it will turn milder over the easter weekend. So timings may be incorrect, but outcome not so? That said, i wouldn't be at all surprised to see everything revised again with the "breakdown" being revised beyond Easter weekend. The UKMO and earlier ECM sent too much energy under the block and i can't see them being completely wrong. The likely result for my neck of the woods is more cold and potentially wet weather - but very limited snow chances. While wer're discussing models i'd like to bank this GFS chart please

To Dartmoor possibly, but i think that would be more really unwelcome rain for the vast majority.

Not being funny, but what is "great" about that chart for the south? Great if you like cold, grey nothingness but i get the feeling that's not what you mean.

looking a bit further ahead, the 06z delivers a pretty similar fail from the Atlantic over the Easter weekend, very similar to the one we are currently experiencing. Pressure remains high to the northeast and eventually the core of the trough drifts back out into the Atlantic re-introducing a E/SE flow. The ECM is similar. Although the GFS does deliver some milder uppers i'm not sure the ECM would for very long....and it's the 06z of course! it's starting to look a bit like groundhog day...another attempt and failure next weekend from the Atlantic? The met office seemed pretty confident yesterday of milder air winning out over the Easter weekend and i wonder if they will be quite so confident today. I hope they are, because i'm not and i'm cold, wet and fed up. And, the CFS (i know, i know..) has shown quite a few times when i've looked recently that the heights eventually progress towards Greenland in April which makes me want to vomit.

i would have thought "mixed" and "average" was a pretty safe bet for the British Isles?! What did it go for last year? Catastrophically wet and cool? I'm pretty sure it went for an above average winter, totally at odds with the 32 dayers which constantly thought blocking over Greenland was going to occur. It got there in the end...after winter.

this is quite alarming. It's already raining heavily across Dorset and the ground was beyond saturated prior to this event. Enjoy your snow those who get it....i'm going to the shed for the dinghy. Further ahead both the GFS and the ECM eventually show the cold easing but we've been there before......and the GEM and to an extent the NAVGEM have a different view...