Frank Trough

gloriously sunny and warm (for the time of year) here in Hampshire, temperatures shooting up since the fog lifted around midday. It cleared on parts of the south the coast much earlier than that, though. Personally i'm loving this early spring weather. I would welcome some rain (or at least the garden would) at the weekend so hopefulyl that will happen because it looks short-lived with high pressure rebuilding afterwards. I don't really see how this is anything other than a "warm spell" when temperatures are reaching the upper teens, possibly 20c somewhere later this week. If it's cloudy and dull and miserable in the midlands then the feathers can be spat about that in the regional thread, can't they? i'll be getting home from work and having an hour in the garden in the evening sunshine.

i don't think it necessarily matters what the GFS is showing after T144 if it is not supported by the ECM (and the UKMO up to 144) - if they also start to trend more consistently to something more prolonged and wintry then i'll take notice of the GFS. Until this winter i always looked at the GFS first, probably because it pops up first when you look at the chart section on here (and it's the one used for the automated forecasts). however, after following other people's advice i started looking at the ECM first, then the UKMO, then the GEM then the GFS. The GFS has made me feel almost motion sick at times this winter with its flip flops between runs and its multiple intense low pressures and shortwaves.

i love this - now the GFS is to be believed having been useless all winter (apart from when it didn't show cold just post christmas - although it got that wrong synoptically). Support of sorts from the ECM (not from the UKMO) but it's a blink and you'll miss it affair with the Atlantic crashing back in, albeit nowehere near what you would call mild. i don't really see any reason to go against the METO forecast (which has been half decent this winter, lets be honest) except for the following reasons: 1). recently they said the south would be wetter than average - that hasn't happened 2). until recently the outlook was average/mild i see no reason why the ECM isn't correct - brief easterly as the trough drops into southeast, then cool PM's with the heights to the south never really going anywhere for any length of time.

but that's the GFS at T+ 288. You'll forgive me if i reserve judgement for now! David Beckham practicing drawing lines and circles has as much chance of verfiying.

The GFS is still showing some nice warm Springlike weather for the end of the week, Before temps drop back to more average or below next week with PM air over the uk it will feel much cooler, with snow possible in the North and maybe the East coast. What nonsense some people come up with the fun is just about to begin, look how quickly the 850 drop of again quicker than they took to warm up even (based on the current ensembles) the trouble is that the 3 better performing models don't support the GFS northwesterly at the weekend let alone anything beyond that. Mundane and average/mild is how i see it for the next ten days and a continuation of the southern central rain shield!

i did exactly the same when i went back to read it again - i thought i was beginning to lose control. So Nick, that would suggest blocking where - to our northwest?

Today: The end of February and first part of March are likely to see changeable weather. Temperatures are probably going to be around average for the time of year. Yesterday: The last few days of February and beginning of March are likely to see changeable weather. Temperatures are probably going to be average or below average for the time of year, particularly in the southeast. That's different isn't it? Mind you, if GP's thoughts are correct then "below average" could well be making a return. at least in the shorter term (early next week) after the weekend cool down it looks like milder conditions will return from the southwest.

The "below average" possibility has been removed today. Good, frankly. It'll be march by then and my arthritic back can't cope with any further cold. If the operationals from today stick to their guns over the next couple of days with developments after the brief NW'ly i wouldn't be surprised to see that change further to "possibly above average" in time.

Evening mate! it was on the monday after the saturday (18th?) snow event - although actually, the saturday event was much more intense and organsied in NE hants/Surrey. Another shortwave ran up the channel on monday morning and just delivered rain here. In that case the dewpoints and uppers were all the wrong side of marginal. The funny thing about that was that it dumped on Devon and west dorset because it fell there over night. A good example that timing is also important - that could still play a role tomorrow. i don't think there's much chance of snow at all here - perhaps a brief period but rapidly turning to rain. I would be less certain if i was in southampton and east of there (and away from immediate coastal areas). I think winchester will be ok, at least for a reasonable spell of snow and north and east of there should be fine. mind you, we need the precip first! Watch those radars folks! and if somebody in Weymouth reports snow then i would immediately get on the sherry.

i would imagine you're quite well placed in northants for what ever may or may not occur! Believe me, nowhere does "wrong side of marginal" better than the south coast. The BBC south today forecasters cannot wait to get on telly and tell us that it will be "rain along the coast". Even during the "little ice age" they would have been predicting drizzle on south facing coasts.

that's better news. if you were to take snow out of the equation by imagining this set up but in the spring or something then just looking at it you would think the front will make painfully slow progress given the pressure and gradually fizzle out? Does anybody remember an event back in about 2003/4 where a front pushed in from the west against cold air (not this cold i don't think) but stalled and never got across the country? i lived in Oxford at the time and i remember the BBC forecast in the evening showed the front passing through and reaching Lincolnshire by the early hours. However, the front never really got past oxford and stayed there and fizzled out.

yes, the cost is a constant niggle to us "caulkheads" (even when we've left!). the last time i went they demanded i gave them a bag of gold at the ticket office. To be honest, if it is just going to rain tomorrow and the UKMO is on to something further down the line then i'd rather just get on with spring now. Weeks of hard frosts and then "wrong side of marginal" snow events don't really cut it for me after mid february to be honest.

that was a superb event - never any worries about 850's or dew points there. Most fun i can remember radar watching! I can definitely feel this one slipping away....here's just hoping that the reality works out differently. After all, the front hasn't looked at any model output, has it?

i am willing to take the blame. However, i can't re-book as you have to pay for further amendments and seeing as the crossing cost my annual disposable income in the first place i'm loathed to!

yes, same old issues along the south coast. I'm praying it makes slower progress and gives us a chance. My gut feeling says we will at least see a bit of snow but that it will probably turn quite rapidly to rain. It will be interesting to watch the radars tomorrow to see a). how much precip there is and where it is heaviest and b. how quickly does it make progress east? However, the thing that will really make this a non-event is the fact i have just cancelled my ferry booking to the IOW this weekend as a precaution. I apologise to the whole south coast for this - if i'd just gone it would have been a stalled front and snow for all throughout but now i'll just be sitting at home in bournemouth listening to the rain hammer against the window while explaining to my parents exactly why i cancelled all the plans.

ha! yes i noticed that. I was hoping they'd just forgotten to draw round the Island but i don't think so.... i'm certainly not giving it up, though. There will be a few more twists and turns long before the front gets anywhere near us...and then maybe how heavy the precipitation is might make a difference?

i can't remember the year, but i remember as a child (that would make it sometime in the early/mid 80's) being in portsmouth shopping and it was snowing. Half way across the solent on the hovercraft going home it turned to rain and in Ryde it had just been rain all the way through. like you say, in our neck of the woods little details can make massive differences. I would be feeling much more confident if i was visiting basingstoke at the weekend and not the Island!

i hope you're right! i was in Eastleigh that evening and it started as rain. By the time i got to junction 7 on the M27 it was very definitely snow! i didn't really get beyond junction 8...

but you didn't get it wrong - technically it wasn't a hurricane. Anyway, back to the weekend.......i can't believe i chose this weekend to go to the Isle of Wight! i guess as a worst case scenario the higher ground along the downs might have a better chance IF the rest sees rain or snow to rain. all just speculation at this point of course - first thing to do is actually get the precip in our area and then we'll see what happens. this chart is interesting (i think) for us: wouldn't that tripple point in the west of our area mean that the angle of attack for here is slightly better? i.e. negatively tilted? still just maintaining a south east flow? of course, that might all be nonsense.

more of a "penetrating" frost here this morning (and less ice on the car in Bournemouth this morning than there was at 10pm last night!). Bit of a breeze blowing. using the METO surface pressure charts there does seem to be a a bit of potential of friday morning - a little trough showing in the south east. might not affect more western parts too much though. Using the same charts it isn't looking so good for the weekend breakdown now. Hard to see too much snow from this chart (especially along the coastal strip!) And then who knows after that? certainly a spell of milder Atlantic weather (and if today's output is taken at face value maybe a slightly more extended period of atlantic weather) looks very likely. While the METO longer term outlook remains positive then i'll be positive. I don't expect it to change too much today despite the 00z operational output.

i was just watching that! definitely "snizzle". I don't think there is much more of any significance to come today, though. the weekend is looking increasingly exciting i think, given the the latest met office forecast. Usual caveats apply for the coast though, i would think. Timing could well be important as any front moves slowly east/grind to a halt. The longer term METO update is indeed interesting! i must admit i wasn't expecting anything quite so postive today! it seems that their most positive cold updates follow the most mild GFS 06z runs!

i don't really fancy our chances that much in terms of snow showers in the next couple of days. However, the weekend is starting look quite interesting. Problem is we are likley to be picking up an onshore wind as the front pushes east so (as always) the coastal strip is in grave danger of just seeing rain - could be interesting inland though. Definitely something to watch over the next couple of days.

snow on my car this morning (but nowhere else) but raining in Bournemouth. Light snow Ringwood and across the Forest and then some moderate snow Winchester to Basingstoke. Nothing north of there from what i can see. It was dark but i think the snow was settling around Basingstoke.

since the phantom easterlies it showed a while ago it's been pretty consistent at finding ways not to show a country-wide cold spell. A cold spell that looks even less likely tonight given the output on view (deep FI aside).

i think because it's showing a massive high pressure shifting eastwards towards greenland, amongst other things. But, as usual for this winter, it is in FI. Another ECM tease. i'll be interested to see how this all pans out at the end of the month in terms of model verification. The GFS has taken a lot of stick while the ECM has been lauded at times. However, there is still no sign of any country-wide "cold" in the reliable timeframe. it's been a bit disappointing so far, but interesting to follow. In the end, the METO forecasts appear to have been the best guide to this point.