Frank Trough

Yes, wonderful looking charts for next week. The GFS was hinting at things warming up from the south for a while with the others not quite so sure - but now there is good agreement. I feel that it's a little bit wrong to be looking ahead to next week when, actually, it's been pretty glorious down here for a while when all things are considered. I notice with some degree of chagrin that the GFS (in particular) has been consitent for a fair few runs now (i haven't been counting) in suggesting that some sort of breakdown will occur on Friday 30th. This is the first day of two weeks holiday for me! Actually, it's also bank holiday isn't it, so i guess i shouldn't be too surprised. I keep expecting it to shift back (like cold often seems to in winter) but it isn't...

Today's 06z looking quite similar to yesterday's, again showing a bit of a warm up next week from the south. i just caught the 00z GFS and would take anything over the next few days if i could bag FI from that run! (it would coincide with start of two weeks fishing holiday). ECM not quite so keen - i'm only following the models with one eye at present, but am i right in thinking that the GFS has been reasonably good in general trends of late? or not?!

yes, im drooling over it and hoping but i don't actually believe it. I would be very surprised if it was anything other than at least on the warm side of the ensembles. I think i'm right in saying that 06z yesterday really ramped up the weekend northerly only to drop it again today? I didn't see the 12z's however.

i really hope the ECM veers towards the GFS 06z in early FI! nice southerly flow with a much better positioned high with some warm temps. I would love to think it's right! On a personal note i'm rather glad to see the weekend northerly get somewhat downgraded but i still think it will be far too cold to make the decision to go camping look anything other than rather silly.

I call that about average. Nothing remarkable either way - it's going to "feel" cold, wet and dreary. Dreadful stuff and even worse if you're up in Scotland. 06Z offers a little bit of hope in middle part of of the run and even the ECM 00Z would come good eventually (way out in FI). This is why i really don't like spring and never have. It promises so much and people wax lyrically about swallows arriving and buds bursting...we even had a bit of that last week and then we get this...

hmmm. Lots of excitement for the midlands northwards. However, down here in south Hampshire to me it looks like being cold, wet and thoroughly miserable. I didn't see the 12z's yesterday (or GFS 18z) but the "event" for monday that was being shown (which may have given some interest here) seems to have been shunted further southeast into the low countries?

Thanks Nick and Steve. i'll go away and have a read - it's fascinating stuff and i appreciate the responses. I know this has been said before etc etc but this forum is still excellent to follow and i will continue to read and learn. hopefully next winter i'll have something more concrete to post!

this was my question, which nobody answered (which i hope is still model - related). I think given steve m's post, that maybe the 18z doesn't have the same level of data input as the other runs? which would explain why it would verify less accurately than the others. my question was that, surely, it must have more up-to-date information as it is, by default, more up to date? i hope this isn't a tiresome post and i'm sure the more senior posters have been through this many times but as a "model maker" myself (in the past) i'd like an explanation or maybe a link to somewhere i can read about it?

well, i for one would in some ways like it to warm up to speed up the fishing season, but the 18Z would still be cold, especially as it is not that different to the 12z at around t168. No sign of the Atlantic taking over in the reliable, anyway. Plus, it is only one run, but i was just going to ask this: surely in a situation where the models have been chopping and changing to a degree (less so recently) then the 18z will be using more up-to-date data? I guess that won't be answered until the morning, but for the time being it looks like being colder than average and depending on the developing situation, possibly much colder. Much better than recent years but much worse for the fishing!

no, it's not. it's moving very slowly and weakening. It's actually a pretty grim sort of evening out there!

yes, it's been great hasn't it? and still february to go and judging by some of the posts from the more experienced people there is still a fair bit of hope for some more cold down the line. It isn't exactly a hotspot for snow down here, especially in recent years! i still don't see enough on the front for anything significant - it's weakening without question, almost by the update.

i think as your further inland that is helping - plus you seem to be aligned better under the heavier precip, according to the radar. It's still travelling (very very slowly) NE (i think!).

yep, the same here. Unless it gets heavier it really isn't going to come to much. awaiting next radar update....the front is certainly struggling to maintain intensity and progress.

i've just been properly outside to investigate what is falling. I'm going to call it "sneet" - i.e. more snow than rain but definitely rain in it. It's not "reet" though. Whatever it is, it's very wet and not settling.

still just very light sleety stuff here at present. I'm of the impression the band is fragmenting all the time?

there is definitely almost inperceptibally light sleety stuff here, but even outside it was a bit of a strain to see it!

well, i've just popped outside and i can confirm that what is falling here is very very light but it is snowflakes. It's coming from that little tongue of precip leading up from the IOW. If we could just tap into the heavier stuff later....

i can see that little rogue cloud on the radar! well, maybe that's promising if the main band does get here without fragmenting anymore.

latest radar shows the band really breaking up now....still a nice solid lump behind it but will that go the same way as it approaches?

ha!!! thanks Dorsetbred, i was hoping somebody would let us know from your neck of the woods. It does look like there is some heavier stuff behind it that might just produce a bit of the white stuff? i guess i'm straw clutching. No matter how much i tell myself it'll be rain you can't help but hope...

i'm pinning my hopes on a rain starter and then moderate snow for my main course. No doubt i'll be in bed if it does bother to snow so i'm keeping my emotions in check. If we hadn't seen any snow so far this winter i think my behaviour would be a little more high octane. hmmm, the leading edge is fragmenting noticeably now.....

well, the band of precip is approaching fast - weakening a little bit on the leading edge but plenty of heavy stuff behind. Just read on the SW thread that it has started raining at Corfe in dorset so i think it will at least start as rain here too. could change if that heavier stuff gets here and the temps drop away. According the latest obs from the met office (don't know how useful they are) solent was 2.4 and thorney island was 1.8 at 16:00.

hmmm. It's sounding less and less good. Somebody has just posted on the southwest thread that the precip is now not going to get to Bristol until 11pm - not sure if that's true. Right, i'm going to do some meaningful work which means i now won't look at the radar or check the threads until this evening. I'm not giving up until people in Dorset start reporting rain!

well, there is certainly a lot of precipitation on the front at the moment but it is very slow moving - high ground in the southwest ought to get absolutely pasted. Be interesting to hear. Maybe BBC thinks it'll start to die out before it gets here? It's not meant to get here until well after dark is it? this evening may well be spent radar watching, street light watching and netweather posting!

i guess timing may also make a bit of a difference for marginal coastal areas? looks good for inland hilly areas, though, as you say. It'll be worth keeping an eye on the SW regional thread as today progresses and the front moves northeast to see what they are reporting down there.