Frank Trough

I would have thought there would be a lot going on in any given five year period if you just want to pick out things like "the 2nd this...", the "coldest that....". Even periods where less extremes happen is interesting in itself - null results in science are important too. I think its a bit too early to start thinking a cold march coupled with some other notable events scattered over a five year period indicates a wholescale climate shift towards another ice age. IMBY this march has been notable (and will be remembered by me) for being raw and unpleasant and might possibly be accompanied by some serious flooding again at the end of this week. It's been hard to get excited...and to be honest, the outlook doesn't look great. From cold easterlies (at least they will be dry) to this: it's a bit like being asked whether you'd prefer to lose a leg or an arm...

No, i agree. I haven't got any confidence in the CFS whatsoever from the flip-flopping i've seen since i've bothered to look. It can't even decide on April. Why are we seeing this persistant blocking? strat warming? i thought GP alluded to a cooler than normal strat giving us the prospect of better late spring/summer synoptics. It's like groundhog day watching the block just sit there, casually rebuffing all attacks from the Atlantic. Like you say, it's hard to see a shift in the near future and actually, a shift to unsettled wet Atlantic weather wouldn't be great either. mind you, 1947 was pretty blocked through late winter/early spring and the summer turned out nice........you never know! *edit* - the daffs on Bournemouth cliffs are in flower...

possibly not the right place to ask this, but i assume all the CFS output is linked? i.e. these charts: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php are linked to the CFS daily and the charts you show? I only ask because i've been keeping an eye on the charts above and to be honest, they are all over the place. No pattern whatsoever. I very much hope the second half of spring sees a significant warm up! it seems ages since we've seen the azores high ridging up into the south.

it is frustrating. Spring is about more than just "temperature" - photoperiod is very important in determining "spring" for many species. That apsect of spring can't just "not happen at all". That said, another cold spring would be a bit of a disaster for many birds (especially some of my Thames Basin Heath species) especially if it was followed by another wet, cool summer. Last year we found nightjars just lying dead on the heath from starvation. Anyway, as many people have said, that northern block is very stubborn. It's not going anywhere fast. This chart looks horrible IMBY - cold, gloom (that's from a personal point of view - i realise lots of people will be loving the look of the ECM this morning) Fishing season severely delayed this year. Temps in the solent are around 3c cooler this year compared to the last two years! And they aren't going to improve anytime soon!

November probably...

so is the ECM (although nobody is really mentioning that at the moment...NAVGEM is getting thrown about though) The weekend doesn't look all that cold in he south either. A little above average for the time of the year.

It most certainly would be typically springlike, wouldn't it? not necessarily nice, but spring. Nothing more, nothing less. Plus of course none of it's actually happened yet and there is plenty of scope for things to change to a colder patter again - but that would still be spring as well. ECM follows on from this 0z this evening. a much more average looking spring pattern.

"Spring remains firmly on hold..." No it doesn't. Spring is here right now. It IS spring. I'm finding this phrase a bit frustrating - presumably spring will only stop being "on hold" when the temperature reaches 20c? I think people are suffering from snowblindness or some sort of hangover from last march. It might be remaining cold for the time of year (but increasingly it looks like milder air - albeit wet - will at least make into to the south as next week progresses) but is still spring. There's nothing un spring like about this chart:

where is the evidence that, in this type of set up, at this time of the year that "all the models underestimate high pressure to our NE"? It's a genuine question, because we hear that phrase fairly often on here. I presume it's actually just a gut feeling people have? Certainly we do sometimes see high pressure being slightly more stubborn and break downs a little quick but generally it's just a timing issue. I haven't seen the models for a couple of days and i'm surprised at the change in outlook, especially as the METO outlook seems to have changed substantially as well. at face value, i'd say a switch to something milder looks a really decent bet. i like the potential in this chart: shame it won't verify!

i think there might be less comments on the latter output of the 06z than there were yesterday... Fortunately for coldies (and unfortunately for me who just wants sea temps to pick up and the fishing season to start...) it's the 06z and on past form won't verify. The HLB on the ecm looks incredibly robust - anybody hazard a guess how long that's going to hang about?

this is exactly what i've been thinking for ages. A couple of days of exceptional cold and then basically below average (but nothing out of the ordinary) probably associated with an increase in rainfall. In short, horrible for our neck of the woods. I don't care if it snows further north, it will be awful for us. I've been looking at the CFS for a while (i know...i know...) but that is continually giving no hope whatsoever of any proper spring appearing before May. Lots of blocking, lots of cold rain. Anyway, enjoy the snow those who have it! just a few flakes in the wind here in Farnborough... *edit* - slightly heavier snow now!

Was that the less robust sister ship of the Titantic?! there will be some very interesting model watching in the near-term timeframes over the next day or so for the track of that low. Could we finally see a genuine channel low with uppers the right side of marginal and precip where we want it?!

but this simply comes back to the pointless argument of whether the ops should be believed or the ensembles. People pick and choose whether the ops should be followed or, suddenly, if the ensembles trend cold in winter then we should follow them. where are the stats that back the idea that we should follow the ensembles in this situation?

we can see it, we just aren't sure it will happen. It was all going to happen at day 9 two days ago.

funny how it still gets posted when it shows cold, though! I doubt anybody would be popping a JMA chart in that showed a below average but far from cold set up. but that, to me, looks the form horse. I can't really see anything to be excited about whatever you "want". I am bracing myself for a period of completely unremarkable weather for March to be honest. The ECM at t+192 just about sums it up: wet, uninspiring, feeling cold but not really cold.

The ECM looks like it could get fairly wet again as next week progresses. Where is it you can find the ECM precip charts? was it that Icelandic site? It's probably the last thing we need - things are just starting to dry out down here and another wet spell won't exactly be welcomed (not by me anyway). The GFS looks a bit drier with everything a bit further north and west, at least initially.

me too. Bring on spring now - it takes something special even in the depths of winter for anything meaningful on the south coast so once spring comes have had enough. Cold rain doesn't do it for me. This is the weirdest time on the model thread i think - the desperate search for cold is incredible. CFS charts being trawled out now...mind you, if you read it last night and not looked at any charts you would have confidently assumed there was absolutely no chance of anything other than a cold march. That may still be the case in the long run but it's undeniable now that at least for the south things are trending milder as we enter the start of spring. It wasn't that long ago that our high was supposed to drift northwest into greenland opening the artctic floodgates to welcome spring....now that high is slipping southeast into Europe. As has been pointed out it is a bit of a double edged sword because if that milder pattern establishes it will get wetter with time which isn't really that great. I would happily take a "typical" march - a few cold shots and some spring like days would do me. Last year it was better for outdoor stuff than most of April, May, June and a lot of July.

i really hope they haven't got may anywhere near correct. Another potentially nice, outdoor month written off by viscious southerly tracking lows with cold, wet awfulness and its associated flooding issues. Surely we took enough blows like that last summer, didn't we?! I'm probably completely wrong, but i don't remember reading any spring/summer forecasts for last year that mentioned the summer would be basically, a write off? most i read seemed quite promising.

The Ecm looks like it would be frigid at the end of FI as that high slips southeast over the cold air. Mind you, i don't think it would stay cold for very long with that evolution as much milder air would be drawn up from the southwest as the high slips southeast. Possibly....but of course, it's all FI anyway. Certainly no sign of spring in the reliable.

EC32 to be correct. Northern blocking, cold, miserable and wet in the south. it's got to be right eventually.... 5.1

cold and wet with more flooding? excellent.

no mention of a cold arctic outbreak there, although they do say "large degree of uncertainty". I guess the arctic outbreak is one of a number of scenarios which at present they don't favour.

i remember IF posting in the lead up to the December easterly that never was that MOGREPS never really bought it and that because of it the METO were unsure of the level of easterly influence...which as it turned out was precious little...

very light snow just starting here in Farnborough. For me this season has been an excellent study in how marginal everything is south and west of winchester. All the events in bournemouth (which was really just the january one) have been very marginal. No real cold which of course the trade off has been more precipitation. For me since christmas it has seemed relentlessly slightly below average with a series of marginal/non events.

i take it it is raining in Devon? Haven't seen any snow reports from there.