Frank Trough

it's a bit more than explore!!!! blimey. Trumpet, would be more accurate. As well as those interesting composites (which are very interesting and a little bit exciting) it's probably worth also considering that Decembers 2011 and 2012 were both cyclonic and westerly (2011 was very westerly). Just a thought.... now bring on some snow and cold for December!

MetO has the pattern setting up much further West than GFS thankfully. Looks better initially definitely but wouldn't it all just get bulldozed shortly afterwards? I really want to see some seasonal weather during December and i admire the stoic determination to see the positives but i really find it hard to see anything other than a fairly dismal start to December. *edit* I've just realised that perhaps you can't call a "Bartlett" in advance because the definition of one is longevitiy - which we don't really know until it's happened? is that correct?

.....and that's the scientific explanation for my "big Christmas give-away pattern change"!

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. No wonder there aren't many comments on the GFS....a progressively Bartlettish borefest. At least it's only the very start of winter - and i'd rather have that sort of yawnfest early on allowing for my much expected but scientifically unsupported pattern change in time for the festive period....

i reckon you should change your name to "emotional rollercoaster"!!! I wonder if we might actually end up somewhere near this sort of chart for a fair part of early/mid December: My thinking being that proper HLB might be a bit difficult (as reasoned by other posts) and the tendency we've seen recently for amplification to be a bit exaggerated couple with old chestnut of northerlies gradually being moved further east as they get near the reliable until they become northwesterlies at best. I reckon December might be quite boring and pretty average. But that's just a guess and fortunately for anybody wanting cold i'm almost certainly wrong. Pattern change to something colder just in time for christmas?! wouldn't that be great?

i think i'm going to wait until i've seen the ECM 12z and check it was having a rare blip before jumping on the suddenly very fast and uncontrollable "the GFS and all it's cold perturbations are correct" roller coaster. Talk of ice days and 2010 repeats are premature i think. Ice days are basically (and i don't know why) the holy grail on here and are hard enough to achieve in January let alone November. Colder early next week for a time at least.

absolutely - i think the ECM would deliver some beautiful crisp, frosty mornings. Exactly what i like in autumn: I'm just pleased to see things dry out a bit and that annoying wind to clear off for a bit. I'd take the ECM immediately! IMBY it takes something pretty special to deliver properly wintry weather and the output of late has never shown this. This frosty style option is much better, plus a couple of really raw days in the middle of next week if that's what people really like. as for the GFS.....best left alone i think. Let it sort out its problems, get an upgrade and have a word with itself. It's wobbling about at the moment like Ashley Young in the box...

and where is at all going to end? They are basically sensationalising the possibility of a frost in November. "Britain set to face days of frighteningly near average conditions for November, with the country set to grind to a halt as people have to scrape a bit of ice off their cars. Later in the week forecasters believe there may even be the possibility of some SHOWERS as Britain neither freezes nor bakes. Forecasters warn that no schools will be shut and travel will not be disrupted and that people may be able to just go about their business". Tw@s

There must have been a few mild and wet Novembers that weren't followed by cold December a la 2010, though? December 2010 was exceptional as well - statistically at least it's pretty unlikely this December will run it close.

i've rarely experienced an october on this forum when we haven't been staring down the barrel of another 1947.

i'm always unsure why this causes so much angst. The southeast is very densely populated (some would say over-populated), something like 33% of the UK's population live there. Impacts have the potential to be more severe. I don't know why there's an issue? Any sort of southeast bias would be justified in my opinion. This current weather and what is progged for the first half of November is utter, utter, unspeakable, typical, slightly milder than average toilet. People were vibrating with excitement at finding ice on their cars this morning. I think that says it all, really.

that was your fridge/freezer mate. The car is the thing outside on the drive.

i think much of it has to do with the ridiculous early season hype and cold hunting which began in september when two days of below average 850s appeared and now we are faced with charts like this: There is a period in the Autumn on here when everything points to the next winter being the bestest ever for cold.....and it's always a long way down from there.

yes........hmmmm.......people on here mock the Daily Express (rightly) for its OTT weather stories but to be honest it's not much better reading this thread at times during Autumn. EVERY winter is about to be the bestest, most coldest ever. Anyway, i'd love to see a cold November and a snowy December/January. Then it can warm up during february. But epic CFS charts aside, i'm not holding my breath (and they aren't quite so epic this morning i notice).

.....which won't verify.

I don't know if we should ignore it entirely - the GFS does show how we could have a (not cold) but cooler glancing blow from a northerly followed by high pressure building back over us and eventually drifting further east. But a full on northerly looks like a long shot at present. so no real change in the broad outlook, though. I wonder if the METO update today will ditch the "unsettled weather moving southeast" theme today? I'd take the ECM outlook at the drop of a hat to be honest. Extends the fishing season nicely!

....but we all know that if the high was setting up camp further north/northwest people would be saying "brilliant, great signs for winter...pattern locked in" and so forth.

i like my cold early - 2010 was brilliant. I like spring to arrive by february. I don't like "descending" winters all that much. Mind you, depending on how much cold worshiping, back slapping and "BOOMING" goes on in the MOD thread i could happily settle for an above average winter. One thing is sure - regardless of the winter overall Bournemouth will always struggle to see lying snow.

i'm not mad, it's just you don't need to have a "feeling" or "preference" when there are mathematical, verification statistics available. I find it all a bit baffling, really. Presumably (and i haven't researched this) the ECM sometimes verifies below other models (including the GFS) but the point is that it doesn't happen that often.

it is superior. Statistically that cannot be argued. It beggars belief that people still post stuff like this. Sure it has off days, but ALL the models have struggled recently. It's still the best and most likely to verify.

did you see the ECM this morning? i think quite it's quite a big shift. High pressure far more prominant for the south in tonight's output generally. It's not the first time this summer the models have over-egged low pressure to our east, is it? Is there an ECM archive? (i should know that). but there is so much chopping and changing i just don't think it's worth bothering with output after t+96 at the moment. one thing i am happy about is that sunday is much better than progged now after i stopped looking earlier in the week! fishing back on!

the models seem to be working as a team at the moment. The GFS's cut off low scenario was corrected by the Euros and now the GFS appears to have helped out by suggesting that it might be an idea to keep pressure a bit lower to the east rather than just let high pressure calvary ride back in. I'd be amazed if the UKMO doesn't make more of the low to our east this evening. It might just be a delay, they may have made too much of it.....or it might prove to be enough stalling to prevent high pressure in at all.

interesting....have they been present in the last few ECM outputs or have they just appeared on the 00Z suite? I haven't looked at the charts for a little while and to be honest i'd pretty much resigned myself to a much wetter and unsettled outlook after the weekend (as that's what was being shown). But then i looked at the BBC forecast for bournemouth and was a bit surprised to see it looking predominantly dry after the weekend: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655095 I won't bother re-posting the ECM etc but i was quite surprised to see high pressure nudging in instead of a cut off low pressure rattling around. Another spell of dry weather will do me nicely but given the swing i think i'll remain cautious. *perhaps the positioning, longevity and strength of the troughing to our northeast is now the major question rather than the cut off low scenario originally being touted?* GFS 06Z still keen to keep the troughing as a major feature, preventing high pressure ridging in: mind you, how much credence should be given to any models (esp. gfs 06z) beyond t+96 given the way things have developed over the last few days?

yes, it just sort of dies a death....bit of a midweek washout for the Hebrides and northern Scotland if it's right, though.

meanwhile, the shortwave is back on the 06z!