Frank Trough

so the GFS goes from this yesterday: to this today: possibly just a blip in the overall pattern but a fairly notable oversight. In fact, the GFS is now looking a lot like the ECM from yesterday or whenever it was.

Bournemouth has been aggressively snowless since march 2013. Not all that surprising - surely even Bomosapiens will be treated to just a few flakes between now and the middle of next week?

Isn't HLB generally more common in spring than winter anyway? It should never be that much of a surprise. Nobody should be expecting spring 2013 to be repeated any time soon, though......at least statistically! there seems to be affair bit of doom around at present but this there are some fairly interesting and "wintry" charts about which aren't right in the far reaches of FI: admittedly it's not a countrywide snow event but it'll be seasonal. I'd rather that was at t+ 192 than this:

There hasn't been a flake in my neck of the woods. This winter is just as snowless as last winter so far. However, i don't really expect snow at home as we are never really favoured and it takes something fairly exceptional to deliver decent, lasting snow cover. That said, i'm pretty sure even more favoured parts of Hampshire and Dorset are also still snowless. Certainly nothing to get excited about IMBY until at least mid feb as far as i can see.

that final week was fantastic - I remember some really warm nights as well but it really was a blip in a truly horrific April - July. I really would like to see a proper country-wide freeze before the end of February so we can put that to bed before spring. I think all 3 spring months were above average last year (most of the year was, actually) so I can't see that being repeated.

Statistically speaking it won't be a "repeat" of 2013 - especially not two years later. The first half of that "spring" was absolutely amazing. I'd settle for average, really. What's wrong with that? A bit of everything. I would not welcome a repeat of April and May 2012, though. Cold, wet and thoroughly miserable.

...except Bournemouth. The good thing for us is we've always been the wrong side of marginal for this "event" so nothing lost. 110,000 to 12,000 years ago, while northern Europe was in the grip of an ice age, it was a "wintry mix" in Poole and Bournemouth. We have seen a few frosts though, a definite improvement on last year.

Driving to work this morning across the forest on the A31 there were a few wet snowflakes hitting the windscreen. I'm wondering if the little band of precip working east might give a few flakes here in Farnborough shortly?

ok then - "very mild" rather than incredibly so! "Mean temperatures over the UK were well above the long-term average for all three months with a mean winter temperature of 5.2 oC which is 1.5 oC above the average and the equal-fifth highest in the series. There was a notable absence of frosts, and the lowest UK temperature of the winter, -7.7 oC at Altnaharra, Sutherland on 17th February was the highest such winter value for at least 50 years."

last winter was incredibly mild overall, wasn't it? I'm not sure "cool" would be the first word to spring into most people's minds when they recall winter 2013/14. At least we've actually seen some frosty high pressure and lying snow in places this winter (so far). However, dress it up anyway you want but to me the output for first half of January is pretty much toilet at present.

I've probably got completely the wrong end of the stick but i'm not really seeing all that much uncertainty in the overall pattern up to Christmas and the period immediately beyond? what happens then may be more interesting (I hope). Uncertainty in the day to day details of course, but to be honest the last couple of days the direction of travel for the period up to t+240 has been away from any significant cold (especially for the south - might be different for Scotland), whatever the details. Up until a couple of days ago there were some really cold charts on offer for the immediate post xmas period - this one just plucked at random because I remember viewing the run and being excited: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2014121700-0-252.png?0 But we're not really seeing those now. So, unless we see a flip back then the direction has been pretty clear.

i think he means the METO have "already" seen the pattern waxing hence their update today... *edit* ...or not then!!!!!

is it really? i've heard this said before on here but never really given it much thought. Do the METO use it in their long range forecasts? If was that decent then surely they ought to?

I'm 38 as well and snow still excites me. A cold frosty high pressure would be nice too but I can't really remember one of those recently? There must have been one? maybe winter 2012/13? What I can't subscribe to though is the "anything as long as it's fractionally below average" philosophy. Which is why the model outputs at present - showing the odd cold north-westerly shot don't cut it for me. I think the word "wintry" is being overused at present (for the vast majority of England anyway). It looks more "cold autumn" than winter to me. Winter comes from the east!

So...what you're saying is you think it's going to be a "cold-hearted winter"? Totally left field, that! I must be a glass half empty sort of person because i really can't get excited by anything being shown. What happened to my nice crisp, frosty high pressure? Certainly wintry at times on northern hills but cold, miserable rain doesn't do it for me. that really isn't an inspiring chart, is it?

one particular aspect of the MOD in winter that i enjoy is the "anything below average is a victory" approach. Pouring rain forecast or endless days of grey mist and somebody posts "at least it will be fractionally below average". I don't really care about all that old guff. I'd rather have a week of snow and the rest of the winter be mild than an endless grey void that ends up "slightly below the 30 year average". Endless, grey, void here today in Fleet.

"from then on"?! The METO clearly didn't get your memo this morning: UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Dec 2014 to Thursday 25 Dec 2014: "Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year." I'm looking forward to a bit of drier, colder, frosty weather next week (should it come to pass and not be cloudy and drizzly). It'll be cracking but I will make the most of it while/if it lasts. I don't like the GFS trend of sinking heights and the jet running north - let's hope it's wrong.

That'll be the same "cold zonality" that didn't verify the whole of last winter despite the phrase being thrown around continuously. "cold" zonality is rare. By the time it gets down to t+48 it'll be bog standard westerly stuff. Wet roads, steamed up windows, damp sheds etc etc. Yawn. Bring on December and something drier, colder and more interesting (please). Whatever happened to sunny, crisp days and frosts? Did the last Labour Government spend them all?

but a repeat of march 2013 (the coldest since 1883) just two years later would be pretty unlikely statistically speaking? so something more watered down, you think? The spring of 2013 will live long in the memory, no doubt about that. Personally i'd like to see it shunted back to February and then it can do one. Some of those storms last winter were interesting, but it did get a bit boring by February. I'm really hoping we just have more variety this winter with high pressure hanging about a bit more, at least giving us opportunities, and keeping the model watching a bit more interesting.

I would have thought that is almost a statistical certainty isn't it? I'd be amazed if it was milder and wetter than last winter.

This weather couldn't be better for me, i'm delighted to say. The peak of the fishing season is September and October and I just hope the storms stay away so high pressure is welcome with open arms. Damp, cloudy, sunny, foggy, bright, dull, mild, cool.....doesn't matter a jot. Just keep the wind and rain away. I feel sorry for the people who aren't able to enjoy this perfectly usable weather. I guess you can always just stay in with the curtains drawn.

When you get posts at the end of May, June and beginning of July writing off whole months/the whole season and saying stuff like "2012 all over again" etc etc etc blah blah then a certain agenda has been laid out and no matter what stats say people will argue. Same happened last December - despite the statistical evidence people were still saying it had been a cold month in Bristol etc etc. Personally i am not enjoying August at all at the moment - mainly because of that nagging wind. At least it hasn't been a monsoon IMBY for the most part and it doesn't look likely to be a washout. When you place that alongside June and July - both drier and warmer than average then really where's the room to complain? The only people who could be disappointed with it would be fans of 2012/2007 style relentless rain and flooding.

or in september....or perhaps the return to southwesterlies will wait until december? It'll be nice on bournemouth beach - sheltered from the wind, strong august sunshine.......the beach huts will be populated. Not my cup of tea, though. That wind is going to be fairly unpleasant next week everywhere else. At least it's not going to be a wash out. GFS operational again shows the ridge bumping far enough east towards bank holiday to make it a bit more pleasant: ECM less bullish, but it wouldn't be all that bad. Actually looks very similar to 00z mean from today: So, rubbish next week unless you like autumn coming early with still only tentative signs of something slightly better towards the end of the week....and that will probably change so we'll have to just wait and see. Still plenty of time for some warmer weather before the bartlett sets up for winter.

for Bournemouth i'll go for January 7th.

don't get me wrong, the GFS has clearly handled Bertha the best out of any of the models - i'm talking about afterwards. I think the GFS sometimes has a tendancy to overdo the longevity of low heights - remember the Mid july breakdown it touted consistently (it had a trough domintaed 3rd week for about 5 days before imploding along with it's entire ensemble suite)? The operational has now decided that Friday looks decent in the south - not that different from the ECM, possibly now a little bit more optimistic. The UKMO looks best but given all other output but as you say, it's probably being a tad excitable.