Frank Trough

There are some similarities between the forecast charts for early next week and, dare I say it, 2012...please don't be an omen...

they also have a passing resemblance to a number of spells in recent Mays (excluding last year). It's a month that really does have low expectations for me now.

both the GEM and UKMO are now starting to errode the high pressure influence this evening. GFS still backing it at present. Sunday still looking ok but not as good as before. As i said earlier, chasing the high pressure seems to have been going on some time and we aren't really getting anywhere. The atlantic lows and heights to the north seem to be underestimated initially, then resolved as we get nearer. I hope the ECM backs the GFS! i suspect not, though. *edit* - naturally the ECM goes with the GFS! i suspect the ECM is the best case scenario we could squeeze out of this.

Well, you certainly wouldn't be writing off the "first half of May" based on this mornings runs: cross model support for some sort of warm up and settling down for a period next week. It would feel very nice. Mind you, the handling/intensity of the low on Friday/Saturday is still to be resolved and anything settled is a week away. Wouldn't be surprised to see it linger around a bit longer than currently modelled. We seem to have been playing "chase the pressure rise" for a little while without any great success. Until we get agreement at t+96 then probably best to keep any expectations firmly in check. all that said, we've already had at least one nice may day down here - yesterday was nice until the rain came (although I quite enjoyed listening to it drumming on the roof of the lean to while I paced up and down trying to get my daughter to sleep).

And pressure has risen, hasn't it? Hence the fall of pressure over the weekend: The 06z ensembles fairly supportive of a pressure rise next week, at least in the south. We'll see - it still remains out t+120 and while it stays there it's not going to happen!

it's good job you're further north: if you lived down here you'd be reaching for the aircon and drawing the curtains again by friday.

again it's down to personal preference to some small degree, but basically it looks cold and wet....and you wouldn't want to bet on the longevity of those type of conditions if that chart were to verify....but it's at day 10 and it will change. For better or worse, who knows?! Given recent form (last year partially excluded) the start of May certainly looks like living up to my low expectations. We've had some ghastly Mays in recent years (the last week of 2012 doesn't forgive it i'm afraid). I don't like the look of it to be honest and i won't be drawn toward any warmer charts in FI yet. At least it's not the start of June we're looking at.....

I thought the same thing! the next couple of weeks look fairly horrific (if you're a fan of being outdoors without a coat) and April has been almost exclusively excellent. Last year excepted May has been an awful little month in recent years and to be honest, looking at the way things are setting up, you could quite easily make a case to expect a fairly prolonged wet, cool spell to write off a decent portion of the month. What worries me most for summer is that Mushy and SP1986 haven't written it off yet.....

...in the north, possibly in the south. The METO still the the Atlantic trough playing a bigger part.

the reason there is less interest is because it potentially delivers weather which doesn't benefit anybody. Like it or not, that's a fact. Cold and wet? no thanks. I think the outlook looks fairly horrifying - setting up for a very cold, wet (relatively - it won't actually be "cold" IMBY) spell which could extend and deliver the usual appalling May. Nothing to cheer. The only twinkle of light i can think of is that if it was January it wouldn't verify because a shortwave would appear at t+84 which scuppers the whole thing. Any "cold" is still in FI for the south so it will change but to be honest i'm resigned to an extended unsettled and poor spell, however long it lasts. It actually reminds me a bit of the end of march 2012 where high pressure retrogressed and then basically destroyed the rest of the summer.

looking at the 06z ensembles there is more support compared to the 00z for more unsettled weather post easter with the trough sinking south - the control is similar to the op: naturally the mean looks better, diluted by the other perturbations. I'm not holding my breath anything prolonged and spring like for the south just yet, but hopefully this is painting the worst case scenario which will ameliorate as it gets nearer to T +0 and in fairness the control does improve quite quickly. Until this morning the ECM has had the high pressure slightly further northwest giving a colder flow (although the little trough drops further east) although it's quite different synoptically from the GFS in the placement of the high: However, i'm glad the METO are suggesting settled weather and warmer days so for now i'm hoping that's the call.

the 06z op goes with the "straggler" scenario! ...which then sets up a horrible easterly/northeast flow across England. Next week would be pretty horrible in that scenario - cold and grey. It does still deliver a decent 3 days for Easter and even good Friday isn't looking quite as bad as it was the further southwest you go. Hopefully still an outlier solution - plenty of chops and changes to come beyond t+144.

we're probably due a colder, wetter one after the last two - especially given what went in the years preceding 2013.

for me that one decent week of may didn't save the month - although i think it did make it technically an "average month". And then we watched as our high pressure drifted towards Greenland and the floodgates opened.

I agree about the warm settled springs being followed by wet summers. I have a fear of that. The worst example obviously being what happened after march 2012, although you would hardly call that a "warm spring" because April and May were appalling. I really hope we don't use up our "high pressure allocation" in spring (i realise that has no basis in rigorous analysis!). That said, there must be examples of decent springs being followed by good summers? i suppose (august aside) last year would be one example? 1995?

I think it was IDO who posted the week 2 JMA from a week or so ago which was going for that scenario - a continental flow but not a particularly cold one. We'll pay for all this high pressure you know....

hmmm. does that not seem a bit unlikely? All of Europe warmer than average in all 3 months while the UK is colder than average in all 3 months? But UK also drier than normal? There obviously is a pattern that could produce that (otherwise they wouldn't be forecasting it) but i'm struggling to think what it would be? somebody help me! Based on nothing more than the fact that all three spring months last year were above average i can't see that being repeated but i also don't see the logic of the above forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see a the settled start to march verify but the high eventually migrating north to bring a much colder, wetter spell into april.

i hope the flattening out doesn't gather too much more momentum! i'm going to ask to "bank" this chart: a chance to get out in the garden and start tidying up a bit. At one stage we were supposed to be getting a pressure build in february which eventually got flattened,initially by the Euros. Seems a bit of a reverse could be happening this time. I wonder what the ECM will bring tonight - i can only think it will be flatter.

ran along Bournemouth seafront this afternoon all the way up to Hengistbury Head - absolutely glorious. I love this weather - frosty crisp start and lovely bright afternoon. To think people were desperate for a gloomy easterly feed!

I was just thinking along the lines of the above two posts (mushy and IDO, which are better illustrated than mine). I would quite like an opportunity for some snow from the east but to be honest i expect the ECM op to back away from the cold easterly scenarios over the next couple of runs. Its mean seems more in line with the general direction of travel of the other model runs which seems to be away from significant cold from the east: At least the options still look drier in the medium term, especially after what could be a fairly wet upcoming period over the weekend/post weekend.

It's still winter isn't it? Naturally spring is "on hold". But don't worry, it'll be here soon enough. It really is only a matter of time. Looks like february might have a decent shout at coming in as a "below average" winter month. It even managed to deliver snow to Bournemouth!

with the more interesting (?) weather that is around today i thought i would just take a look back at the models to when today first came into the t+144 range (i.e. the UKMO). So current chart today: ..and how the GFS saw it: the ECM: and the UKMO: So the UKMO did pretty well. I remember that run being treated with a bit of skepticism at the time, especially given the GFS high pressure-fest theat preceded it. ECM seemed to offer a bit of a messy mid-ground version.

Hi, One thing that has definitely occurred in the shorter term is the the GFS has trended to the Euros with the placement of the high. GFS had that ridging in and influencing the whole UK entirely but the UKMO/ECM started to flatten it and effectively keep it influencing only the south. GFS now agrees. i think it's undeniable that high pressure is the big player but the placement makes a difference. The METO have always seen it as a more southern affair with NW unsettled at times.

resembling the GFS doesn't make it right. If we'd believed the GFS and its ensembles we certainlywouldn't be seeing any rain at the weekend. The currently modelled pressure rise is still in FI - it's not in the bag. It's favourite, but if it starts to erode on current form it won't be the GFS that spots it first.

not really, no. The ECM may have some variation on a theme but the only ECM close to the high pressure domination GFS charts that you've posted is from 4 days ago. As it stands, the Euros are going to be much closer to surface conditions than the GFS. But you are right, it will continue to be tricky to resolve the details for a few days yet.