Frank Trough

there is going to be a spectacular falling out in the MOD thread if this currently modelled cold spell fails to deliver. It doesn't matter how many times you say "a SSW doesn't mean blocking in the right place" etc etc. When people see what's being modelled at present then it can only lead to many tiny toys out of many tiny prams. I've got to say that I'm not enthused by it all yet. It's still more than a week away (first person to spot the killer shortwave at t+120?!) for starters and there's a big difference between the beginning of February and the beginning of march (yes, I know what could happen if everything falls right but...well....).

Make the most of it. All i keep hearing is "delayed spring", "bitter march" etc etc. It's been the same EVERY February since 2013. I wonder what the return rate is for a march like 2013? More than five years I would think. That said, I'm on leave the first week of march to get the garden sorted so that will definitely be a wet and very probably cold week.

light snow shower here in Farnborough. When I say light I mean proper flakes blowing about but there was only about 15 of them.

fortunately Aps or websites won't ultimately decide the outcome!

I've just driven to work from Bournemouth to Farnborough up the M3. The rain in Bournemouth turned to snow up Poulner hill and over the forest (settling at Rufus Stone) and then it was patchy until Twyford. After that loads of snow through Winchester to Basingstoke. Less here at work but snowing hard now. Looks like it's passing east quickly.

that's interesting! As it stands it looks a pretty good shout in terms of our weather from that far out!

My two year old wanted to go "ice skating" in it earlier. Just plain rain now in eastern Bomo ?

Seems more like rain here now. I think the precip isn't heavy enough now. Definitely is just rain now. I wasn't expecting that, I thought it might get more favourable than less?

Looks light wet snow in Iford! Get in!!! Better than expected!

Heart says yes, head says another near miss. I could ask my wife? She's normally right about everything ?

I don't think it is. It's a separate low off nw France which is due to move ne tomorrow morning. I think.

Somebody give me some hope? ?

Still just moderate rain in Bournemouth. Feels so near yet so far....

Like others I'm staying well away from the MOD thread. I'm a bit disappointed that this cold spell could end up just being the few little flakes I saw yesterday afternoon. Still, lovely run through wick fields this morning, crisp, icy and frosty. More please. as karlos says, our time will come. Probably during the next ice advance (although probably still "marginal" here).

Indeed. Much more realistic but at least colder side of average which in recent Decembers is an achievement in itself.

I've got no specific evidence to back this up but I've previously noted numerous occasions when the GFS massively overdoes the longevity and intensity of troughing just to our east. That's mostly in summer but the GFSop is almost certainly overdoing that low.

Indeed. March can deliver all kinds of nonsense. Can't help feeling that the shallow surface high at some point in march is going to deliver something colder for the uk, not just the north.

2002 had a pretty poor summer (very wet july), five years later 2007 had a very wet summer, five years after that came 2012. Five years later....2017? I reckon a cold wet spring followed by a very wet summer. Misery will abound. I can't tell you how much science has gone into that "forecast".

I'm willing to bet march 2013 isn't repeated 4 years later.

I've just woken up in a bit of daze. It must have snowed here too...there is a little on shed roofs. Missed it all. Was it good?

I had to laugh at the lovely Alexis' forecast this evening. All showers dying out north of us through the weekend BUT she was quick to add that they are expecting double figures next week. I bet we don't struggle with those if they verify.

"roaring easterly sourced from Greece"!! That said, I challenge you to tell my wife when she's moaning on Saturday that it isn't a roaring easterly she's encountering!

we know all that............I think the point is how ludicrous things have got when you get a roaring easterly in early February with -8 uppers and still we find a way to get rain...

I keep thinking the same thing! HOW DARE THIS EVEN THINK ABOUT BEING MARGINAL? On this basis you can expect the next ice age to only manage to produce drizzle in Bournemouth.

I was just thinking exactly that! I think midlands northwards (esp. the towards the east but not exclusively as that little low moves across ) could see some quite meaningful snow. I like the snowless Bournemouth area on the chart you have posted!