Frank Trough

At least in this case the background signals are favourable as well. We all know only too well that retrogression and genuine Greenland heights are modelled way more than they clarify. I guess that's true of several patterns which are outside the envelope of normal for the U.K.

you need to also read the quoted post to put it in context - I don't think anybody was actually calling it a plume in the summer sense LOL. MWB was just referring the milder uppers being dragged up from the south next week - "rather like a plume". just taking the 06z ensembles there is pretty good agreement on the warmer uppers making inroads: after that plenty of scatter but there is a downward trend again. So based on that I'd say the "change of airmass from a SE quadrant" has - AT THIS STAGE - more chance of verifying than a cold northerly at day 10.

on balance I'd say the "plume" has more chance of verifying than any northerlies next weekend at this stage.

The previous blocking episode earlier in the winter the ECM absolutely nailed in the long/mid range. The ECM admittedly had the blocking too far north initially but at the same time frames the GFS was smashing westerlies all the way to Russia. Don't rule out the ECM view of things longer term. As is typical in winter the focus on here is always day 10. but in this case we have an easterly setting up at t+48 so the real interest is the much nearer term for now. FAX charts over the next couple of days are going to be of great interest.

It looks like a bit of a grey misery fest on the ecm? Or will it be clear and frosty? It still looks like a wait for anything snowy but there is no doubt we are still in the game for a while. That blocking isn't going anywhere fast. and easy to forget that a westerly fest was being advertised not long ago.

I think we're going to hear a lot of references to March 2013 over the coming weeks, especially given charts like that. Worth considering that the chances of a repeat are statistically unlikely. Very unlikely. March 2013 was the coldest since the 1880's or something. So we have to ask ourselves how likely a repeat would be 4 years later? stranger things have happened though. Maybe it will be the new normal?! There will be plenty of hope for that if the current snow chances keep reducing.

...which in itself means it has a minuscule chance of verifying, like all output at that range. to me the odds on a "cold outbreak" are very good which, given recent years, is hugely positive. I remain massively unconvinced that snow is going to be a major feature.

just need to get it to t+72 now....just five days to wait.

Looking at the output in the nearer term the GFS shows some pretty concerning storms battering the south Friday through sunday. Damaging winds and high rainfall totals: The Euros less vigorous although ECM still looks rough Friday into saturday: I think it's probably safe to say that there is the potential for some "poor travelling conditions" and "disruption to weekend plans" for southern parts at least. I think flooding could be a real issue. And then it may or may not get cold....not interested now unless it actually snows where I live. And that is ALWAYS a tall order.

Finally somebody has noticed the potential for a bit of storminess at the end of the week! Timing differences though and ukmo not that interested at all. The country could be forecast to be flattened at t+48 and not get a mention in winter! Will my greenhouse survive long enough to enjoy any height rises? it'll be a bit of a shock, last decent gale was ages ago. november?

But northern blocking is always more likely in spring. It's not really a great leap to for that happen even in the absence of a late SSW. The westerlies were always going return so it was just our time.

well.....the 06z shows later next week some decent cold uppers and the winds getting south of east and dragging some "precip" off the Channel onto southwestern coastal areas. should get some really light snizzle from that. it's only a week away.....can't see it changing much.....

But I want to see it snow IN Bournemouth!!! doesn't matter how pathetic! I don't think much is falling from that, though? it's Virgil Van Dyke or something? Does anybody else get that? that snow doesn't really count if you see it somewhere other than your home area? Like yesterday seeing all that snow down the M3 - didn't really feel it because I knew as soon as it hit Ringwood there would be zip.

much as I love living in Bournemouth we really are relegation fodder when it comes to snow. It's almost embarrassing at times. Well done to all who have seen some so far and who might see some more yet! that band travelling southeast is a massive fail for central southern England I think. Going to be too far east.

That was an interesting journey....dear god. The snow at Winchester was something to behold. Zip in Bomo!

Contingency planners for Hampshire County council latest update is that they think less snow risk for Hampshire snow (they're more worried about flooding apparently). Make of that what you will - not sure they know anything more than we do really.

that's pretty much the conclusion I'd come to yesterday. I just worry about that elevation at Basingstoke. I will just keep watching this thread and seeing how things pan out.

morning, I'm relying on this thread today to save me from acute embarrassment today. I live in Bournemouth but I'm at work in Fleet - I cannot afford to get stuck today. What chance? Have to do nursery pick up in Bomo by 6pm and my wife is home ill so she can't bail me out. Am I doomed?

and me! I reckon I'm in by a couple of miles

that thought keeps popping into my head! this GFS op run actually shows a proper freeze - it would be a genuine shock to people I think if it's anywhere near close. haven't had too many days feeling like this in recent winters!

Anybody who thinks the GFS handled this better than the ECM has a pretty short memory I think. As recently as Saturday the GFS still had the Atlantic charging through: GFS: ECM at the same time: and modelled today for the same time: GFS: ECM: you can make up your own mind from there. The GFS goes on to produce an easterly flow today, something the ECM has stuck at for days now. The Ecm has adjusted yes (and still is obviously) but the GFS has performed a U-turn.

"not bad" he said in the MOD!

How about just paying more attention to operational output up to t+144? The unfortunate reality is that in recent winters guessing that "it's more likely to be mild and westerly than not" would be pretty accurate. What I find baffling is that even seasoned posters who's input we really enjoy seem unable to learn from recent experience. If one model starts to downgrade cold chances or doesn't accept it from the start it rarely seems to be totally wrong. And that's regardless of which model.

What have we learned from recent experience? As soon as a model starts eroding a cold spell it just seems to gather pace. We'll see tonight but my guess is the ecm won't be as good. Just seems to be our luck.

I know recently we've seen quite a lot of comment on the longer range forecasts for this winter not quite delivering what many were hoping for (yet?!). While I was out running I was trying to think (just from memory) which notable periods/patterns of recent times were really well forecast in advance (and as I say, it's just from my memory so it won't be accurate or entirely inclusive). So far I have: 1) December 2010 - I'm pretty sure GP nailed this well in advance and other seasonal forecasts also picked up on it. It was also modelled well from well out in FI to verfification 2). Spring 2013 - the notable cold. I'm pretty sure I remember reading input on here that pointed to a cold spring and "southerly tracking lows" which I remember at the time dismissing as probably being just cold and wet for my neck of the woods....how wrong was that! -13 uppers in march! # 3). July 2013 - I've nothing to really back this up other than I quite sure the CFS monthlies were convinced about a good july for a while leading up to it 4) January/February 2014 - I have a feeling the wet and windy westerlies were well forecast for this period but again I can't think why exactly I think that. I must have missed loads but these really stick out in my mind.