Frank Trough

But if you look far enough ahead any given chart could lead to cold. Nobody ever posts charts on here that preceded a horror show 3 weeks later but I bet you can find thousands. In the meantime the other side of Autumn over the next few days and through the weekend. First real blow and could be pretty wet for many. Nothing out of the ordinary.

was that the Penlee lifeboat disaster? Certainly looks lively Saturday night on the 06z. I've got next week off to dismantle my shed, move it 5 meters (where it should have been in the first place) and rebuild it. Perhaps there won't be much to rebuild at this rate.

It wasn't even a good winter in deep FI or deep among the 18z ensembles at t+384. In the meantime, the colder flow is creeping nearer and nearer the "reliable timeframe" again. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html Genuinely, quietly excited now.

as a note of caution, those charts are still 10 days away? Let's hope we get a smooth transition to the more reliable like in 2010. *edit* my screen was covering your last sentence!

A little ice-age is probably what we need down here to avoid the dreaded "rain on the coast" scenario. December 2010 did deliver snow to this area but nowhere near as much as other areas in the south. A stonking proper easterly with genuine cold uppers and a sliding channel low would be what I would I pick personally IMBY.

I can't remember if it was 1993 or 1994 but one of those Novembers (I think) had a sort of blocking holding pattern with little temporary easterlies before we got a full blown affair later in the month. I think 1994 now if memory serves.

I can't believe how benign everything is! I can't be the only one who is missing a good autumn storm just a little bit? another mild/warm even Halloween to come: didn't we used to get the odd frost in October? I really hope we end up with all this initial blocking ending up in the right place so we get an early taste of winter. I can't help feeling that all the while the westerlies remain absent the chances of them returning (for they surely will) for the start of winter slowly rises.

things don't look especially "chilly" for the time being? You are still expecting a shift to west/northwesterlies and below average temperatures?

ha ha! yep, that completely undoes everything I posted. I thought the top figure was 19.5 at Porthmadog which is what I heard on the radio. Clearly they were wrong.

I think the fact that 20c isn't going to be exceeded anywhere now before May is quite interesting in itself. First time since 2006 and, according to Trevor Harley, before that you have to go back to 1983. So not a common occurrence in recent times at all. What is now interesting me is how long into May we might have to wait! took until 25th may in 1983 which is the latest date recorded. If Ian's forecast here is right we might be challenging that. edit - I tried to quote stargazer rather than Ian - don't know why that happened.

20c was definitely passed somewhere before May in both 2013 and 2015. April last year was warm and sunny in fact it was the third sunniest and third warmest in the last century. Apparently!

I'm still left wondering that if we don't manage a 20c somewhere next week (as almost advertised by the GFS) whether we might go all the way through to May without doing so? Certainly none of the modelling for the last third of the month suggests we will even get close. I think I'm right in saying that would be the first time since 2006? And prior to that 1983?

It is only April - I think expectations are reasonably tempered aren't they? If it was June I could understand people wanting a bit more than 17c and sunshine - but in April? I think it's been a pretty average mixed bag of a spring so far and it looks like continuing in that vein over the next 10 days or so.

that is bizarre. According to Trevor Harley June was cool and cloudy (but dry) but here is a quote about July '83: "The hottest of the century (19.5C), and indeed the hottest month since records began. Also mostly dry and sunny, but with some severe thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure extended from the Azores as the month started. The temperature reached the magic 32C somewhere in the country every day from the 12-16th, and the average daily maximum at Heathrow in the month was 27.6C. There were 17 consecutive days above 27C (80F) somewhere in the country between the 3rd and 19th, and 22 days above 27C in total; the temperature exceeded 21C somewhere in the country every day but one. The highest temperature of the month was 33.7C at Liphook (Hants.)" August was also hot and dry in the main.

That is precisely what did happen in the winter wasn't it?! Except the extent of the HLB was massively overdone at range and never got anywhere near verification. I'm thinking that if we don't manage to manage a 20c early next week a la GFS 06z then it might be pretty hard to come by in the remainder of April IF the HLB showing today is anywhere near correct this time around. *edit* the METO update today doesn't seem to favour any kind of N or NE'ly flow in the mid term from what I can see: "High pressure is then expected to dominate for much of the remaining period, bringing a good deal of dry and settled weather, albeit rather breezy at times. Showery rain may move up from the near continent to affect southern England at times, and the odd shower may develop locally elsewhere. Temperatures generally around average, but with some chilly and potentially frosty nights, especially in the north. Updated at: 1226 on Tue 12 Apr 2016"

the outlook this morning is fairly grim it has to be said. I'm all for "getting it out of the way before summer" but I remember thinking that in 2012! I wonder how late in spring it will be before 20c is reached (unless that has already happened and I've missed it?)? Still, in 1983 it took until 25th May for 20c to be reached and July and August ended up being very hot. 2006 it took until may for 20c to be reached and again it was a great summer.

ha! i'll rephrase - it's quite nice out here at the moment! Although it certainly won't be after tomorrow for a while.

I think people get a bit carried away with blocking in spring. it's common - much more common than in winter. The output at present is very "springlike" in reality (perhaps a bit wetter than you might hope for). The charts aren't showing anything "early summerlike" or "very late winter like" but they are undeniably "springlike". It's the 5th of April. Personally i'd be happy to get a couple of below average months out of the way now before summer (I know it doesn't work like that really). We all know May will be a predominantly northwesterly month and be breezy and cool as is now the fashion. plus it's quite nice out now.

if more time were spent discussing the output up to t+144 there would be an awful lot less guff on here. At least that has half a chance of verifying, be it mild, cold, wet, windy, cloudy... So on that note, up to sunday the latest GFS offers plenty more usable spring weather to enjoy, with an emphasis towards the end of the week of slightly warmer temps more widely if it is on the right lines:

Away from eastern and southern coastal areas it looks like double figures on offer each day (going by GFS)? signifcantly warmer than that for northwestern parts. I don't know if that is cool for most? Seems to me like spring to be honest. It's lovely out today. I'd get out and enjoy it rather than desperately searching for below average temperatures TBH. There will be plenty of that from May onwards to "enjoy".

definitely a wintry element to the shower we are experiencing in Farnborough at the moment.

well, perhaps they're wrong? the azores ridge is going to be a player next week - to ignore it is folly. How much influence it has remains to be seen but the anomoly charts alone won't dictate that. Your faith in them is troubling.

I've been working on the assumption that any pressure build is being over done and that come next week the high will be supressed back more towards the Azores leaving us in a more northwesterly regime. However, it keeps cropping up. To be honest i'd love to see just some falling snow this week and then for something more spring-like to turn up thereafter but given the METO expectations for things to be generally below average overall out to early April i'm not holding my breath.

I don't know if just "colder than average" in march is going to set too many pulses racing if it doesn't deliver chances of snow. Of course up north it probably would give some chances in favoured locations so some interest there. But if it's simply colder than average weather without snow you're after then you might as well look forward to May to August because you can bet we will get our fill of below average days/months in that period. Surely these maxima for sunday in the southeast are a bit overcooked aren't they? It will still be February in a brisk north easterly?

It's not quite nationwide...my mother-in-law would only have to do battle with a bit of sleet and then some cold rain to come and visit us.