Frank Trough

straw clutching probably, but should this verify would it not give at least an outside chance of a wintry shower coming in off the sea along southwestern coasts?

isn't Calais in France?

I'm prepared to answer that now - "it won't". Not in Bournemouth anyway! Mind you, it's going to take another Loch Lomond Re-advance or Krakatoa for us i think.

I'll eat my own arms if it snows in Bournemouth from that setup. Further east along the coast might be a different matter but from Portsmouth west i'd be thinking about driving in land a little bit. We've been here so many times on the south coast - I can hear Alexis now on South today saying "falling as rain along the coast but further inland there could be a dusting".

I don't think it's anywhere near game on. It's a watching brief. Cross model agreement of cold air flooding south at t+96 is game on. Until then sensible money is on something more amplified than the GFS but less promising than the Euros.

Blocking is statistically more common in spring anyway, isn't it? weakening vortex and all that...i'm sure I read some old flannel that snow is more common in march than December in the south. Interestingly (and for "fun") the CFS monthlies suggest February will be above average but every month after that until the end of civilisation will be slightly below average and no doubt windy.

Out of interest, how often do day 16 mean charts show anything other than what could be called a "westerly pattern"?

it is disappointing really. I've absolutely loved the last couple of days - hard frosts, beautiful crisp, clear sunny days, stunning fiery sunsets...now back to the same old bilge water we had before Christmas. Given the excitement initially generated of "tanking NAOs" and "shredded vortexes" etc it was a pretty run of the mill cold snap. Just shows you how far we've fallen in recent winters! No point in February if it's going to be grey, mild dirge. Roll on spring....and the inevitable below average, wet and windy second half of April/all of May.

one thing that I am still scratching my head about is how quickly the AO/NAO forecasts seemed to have turned around. It only seems a few days ago (in reality it's probably much longer - this happens all the time as I get older) that I was reading with excitement posts showing the AO "tanking" and how it was off the scale, nothing like it since 2010... and now it's forecast to go positive again? I guess I just thought these "broader scale" patterns were likely to be more stable. But then are they just composites of the model output anyway?

If I didn't live in Bournemouth I'd be very excited. Reality for southern coastal counties at face value is a delay in really cold uppers and cold rain until well out of the reliable. But I think a lot of people are going to be very happy come next week - exciting stuff.

just stop for a second a think about how ridiculous the concept of "trolling" about the weather actually is?! it's utter nonsense. More to the point, how do people allow themselves to be "trolled" about the weather? it's the weather for crying out loud! it goes back partly to something I mentioned the other day - there's far too much emphasis in the MOD thread on output beyond T+144. If more time was spent analysing the output up to t+144 (regardless of weather type) nobody could really be considered to be "trolling".

I've just randomly copied this from the MOD thread so I can make a point: "I have no interest in the charts above haha plenty of time to see charts like that in the start of spring ." This is in reference to the upcoming shockingly, potentially record breaking December warmth. It's not really what I want to see either but the fact is it is what is going to happen, because it's in the reliable timeframe. I sometimes wonder if there shouldn't be a thread specifically to discuss the output up to t+144 and then another to discuss output >t+144. After all, regardless of what weather we want it is useful to analyse the weather that might actually verify. I have to plan site visits for work and my summer hobby of fishing relies on trying to forecast with accuracy the wind direction and timing of rain events etc within a fairly short timescale. Personally I would value the input of the multitude of talented model analysts on this forum at looking at the more reliable timeframe and discussing the timing of weather fronts, where rainfall is likely to be highest, will fog linger, will the wind swing round...etc etc. Obviously in winter when there is a cold spell that gets inside t+144 then that would be very exciting too. I'd also then quite like to read through the winter "hunt for cold" (and summer "hunt for anything other gales and rain") in the >t+144 category in the knowledge that it is fun, interesting but ultimately a search for clues and potential pattern changes. How much does the model thread gain from seeing day 16 mean charts or day 8+ operational charts? Even in this current "dirge" there is still weather that is going to verify which is worthy of discussion without having to trip over CFS output or charts that basically have as much chance of verifying as giving Tess Daley some coloured Crayons and a paper plate. But I do understand that it is still fun and interesting, just it would be good to have it somewhere else. Anyway, just a thought which i'm sure has been explored before and there are probably loads of good reasons not to do it.

Are air frosts in London in November all that unusual? perhaps they are now, I don't know. I am still on only one ice scrape of the car windscreen and it is now "officially" the middle of December. Looking at the output this morning that isn't going to change for sometime in my neck of the woods (although i'm in tropical Bournemouth - "the land that winter forgot" - I do live quite low down in a river valley so we tend to get frosts a little more often than the immediate surroundings). "The Euro High is dead...long live the Euro High" I hope a new year brings a change of fortunes - just something more seasonal would be nice. A bit like prawn cocktail, cold, crisp, sunny frosty weather should never really have gone out of fashion.

looking at the ouput this morning going forwards on a broadscale (i.e. euro heights, SW winds) there surely has to be a decent shot (as it stands) that this will become the mildest December on record? Was 1934 the mildest at 8.1? Getting towards the middle of December and I've scraped my car windscreen once. I'm really hoping the Netweather forecast for January comes to fruition.

1988 had one around this time, didn't it?

or move south! gorgeous down here today.

When I looked at the ECM this morning I must admit my heart sank a little bit. From a personal preference viewpoint (and I understand some people love below average, wet, windy weather in summer) I would not want to see that t240 chart verify. I was hoping that it might just be the ECM overdoing the height rises as it often seems to on the operational. Then the GFS 06z came along and pretty much backed it.... at least the 06z is a genuine outlier later in the run for the south: I should caveat this by saying I have next week booked off on leave (always a jinx) and I have a long standing all day fishing pass from the Mrs for Friday 26th which is naturally going to be influenced heavily by sod's law. So on that basis the 06z is probably spot on and leading the way!

A strike in the western channel now!

nothing short of a channel low would do in January! But indeed, we *seem* (and my perception is probably wrong when the actual facts are explored) to have had a lot of cool days and northwest/north/northeast winds through may and the start of June.

i think those temps will be modified somewhat nearer verification - the GEM and to an extent the UKMO are not as cool. But no doubt there will be some chilly nights and likewise any proper warmth does seems to be eroded as it gets nearer. Also worth noting the last couple of GEM runs haven't made much of the pressure rise next week - much flatter than the GFS and ECM so we'll see how that goes.

What would you say the TREND from the UKMO has been over the last couple runs?

based on what? That really is cherry picking! neither the UKMO or ECMFW show that happening at the timeframe you claim? but if we're cherry picking the GFS then yes, you're right:

You've obviously forgotten what June 2012 was like!

"normal" temps for june would be warm, would it not? "nothing in the way of warmth" would more accurately describe the last few days I think. the "hot" conditions that were being modelled a few days ago have been substantially downplayed though, I definitely agree with you there coldcomfort.

on the flipside to that, how many times do we a trough predicted to drop down across or just east of the country and introduce a northerly only for it to end up further east at verification? that scenario seems to happen quite often but mainly gets noticed in winter. Maybe it's more common in winter! don't know. I just want Saturday to be reasonable day - a whole day free to pursue outdoor interests so dry and not too windy are what I would order (don't really care about temps or sunshine). at present I will definitely bank any of the big three given how it was looking a few days ago!