Frank Trough

wasn't it the GFS 06z a couple a of days ago that first picked up the little shortwave? it's subsequently dropped the idea but to be fair the last few ECM operationals have been consistently showing it (+ last night's fax chart shows it). I like it when these little "disagreements" happen, it's what makes model watching fun. I always kind of hope there will be a clear winner but it's not normally as clear cut as that.

thing is, i'm not sure that's this morning's ECM, is it? On metoeciel this morning's 00Z also shows a pressure rise (*EDIT* the chart in your post has updated now?! does it do that automatically? how clever) So i'm not sure about this firm "NO" at this stage. There is undoubtly a trend to rising pressure after the weekend's low drifts away but we'll see...long way out. FWIW the GEM at the same time frame:

A lot don't. In fact, a very high proportion of the population (is it something like 33%?) live in the southeast (because it doesn't rain all the time) Well, the ECM for the 19th sticks stoically to the general theme of low pressure close enough to the north to be dominant but far enough from the south to allow for some better conditions. The flow very much northwesterly. it'll be interesting to watch how things develop towards the latter half of the month, especially as it enters the outer reaches of the ECM operational. As Ian Ferguson pointed out earlier, there are hints of something better more widely across the country from the longer range ensembles and to an the extent the GFS operational (as mentioned also in the METO update) Still, i'm not really that bothered either way - another hot, humid plume would be nice (if that's what you like, which i do) but average August stuff wouldn't be too bad either IMBY.

i thank you! (bows)

move to the balmy south coast then!!!! it's ALWAYS gorgeous down here! just how it should be in summer... (of course you're right...i jest!) The rest of the country will get their own back this winter when we have to put up with the "rain on coasts" scenario all winter while everybody else is digging themselves out!

i'm looking forward to getting the final statistics for this summer for my neck of the woods when it's over. My impression has been that it's been excellent - fabulous in fact. Unrelentingly brilliant - even when it hasn't been sunny it's been warm and dry. Estuaries running clear, loads of fish showing and not fishing sessions cancelled due to apocalyptic weather. Why has it been continually tinged with disappointment on the model thread?! it's so wonderfully British. First there wasn't going to be any spring at all and then summer was written off in June. Then as it started to get better the good weather was "all in FI...remains to be seen.....believe it when i see it....." posts flooded in. Then the negative posts disappeared during the first week of July (were they all out enjoying the weather that was never going to happen?) until the GFS suddenly showed a breakdown (accompanied by the anomaly charts lest we forget). These were then touted around and we were warned to take note "even though it's not what many want to see".....then the breakdown was delayed for another two weeks but any possibility of low temperatures in northeast Scotland were pointed out when they occurred at T+168 on the GFS 06Z. And now people have their ar5e in their hands because the azores high might not ridge fully across the country before the end of August (3 weeks away)...... dear me. I can't wait for next summer which statistically is likely to be worse than this one....... can we write it off yet?

Those charts don't refer to the same period though do they? the ECM operational doesn't go to mid month? and actually, as posted above the last frame of the ECM this morning (for what it's worth) is showing the azores high ridging back towards us? And the GFS at t+342? Plus the anomaly charts give broad guidance - the detail in the positioning of troughs/ridges as we get nearer can make a massive difference to the weather on the ground compared to the broad brush approach of the anomalies? The anomalies in fact gave very poor guidance at the start of July and got the timing of breakdown completely wrong. Nothing suggests a return to the conditions seen through july but to me the rapid firing of the Atlantic that was suggested yesterday seems to have been watered down again today? I'm probably completely wrong but there you go! Autumn will happen....but hopefully in Autumn!

Quite big differences between the GFS and UKMO at t+144: UKMO makes much less of the trough to our southwest, and from what i can tell from Meteociel is much more similar to the ECM: The ECM then seems to wander off into a bit of non-descript but gradually cooler pattern which seems to reflect the thoughts from the met office. Interesting model watching, though.

i'm not sure that's exactly what he's posted - just that in certain situations they can be unreliable (like any model i guess). A look back at this thread from the 8th of July shows that while they might be an excellent guide much of the time they aren't infallible: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/page-3 on another (light hearted note) - how good has the GEM been recently? LOL

i was thinking the same thing. The only people who seem to have been angry/disappointed recently are those who have posting "breakdown" charts since the 2nd of July. I think everybody has "accepted" (what else can one do?! - it's the weather, you have to accept it) that next week will see a change to more typical summer weather. It'll still be a decent enough week in my neck of the woods at least. With words like "Atlantic", "dominated", "fresher", "cooler" you'd be forgiven for thinking that next week sees a train of low pressures crashing through the UK from NW to SE. This isn't a bad mean chart, is it?

True, but still this morning the Atlantic is far less in charge in the south and southeast - in fact, high pressure is never all that far away and it would be another pretty decent week. Following that, both the ECM and GFS have pressure rising again from the south... Usual caveats and all that, but is till don't see anything to be too depressed about in my neck of the woods. Bit of rain here and there, temps average to slightly above. Clearly it's a different story further north and west but again that is not an unusual situation, is it? nobody lives in the northwest for its renowned glorious summer weather do they?

yes, the expected change proper gets underway early next week. Good to see that we'll squeeze out another decentish weekend before then, though. The dartboard low pressure that the GFS was showing for saturday has now thankfully gone. As you say, at times high pressure may influence the south and south east at times while the north and northwest look cooler and more unsettled. Still the potential for some relatively warm interludes as well between weakening fronts: i agree also with some of the earlier posts about the CFS. I watched it quite closely for interest during the spring and even posted about the fact that the one consistent thing it was showing was an above average July - the rest did seem to be a bit of a jumble. It is now showing signs of going for a closer to average August which, for the south, would equate to a very decent summer overall. Much better than anything else since 2006.

I was wondering that. No sign of him at all despite numerous chances to have written off this summer. I satisfied myself with the thought that he'd probably been arrested by performing some bizarre, naked, druid rain dance during late May.

Well, as mentioned extensively on here already the "change" now looks inevitable for next week - it's just a matter or timing and also what the actual change will mean in terms of weather on the ground. I think the GFS is still probably touting the worst case scenario and there will be plenty of chopping and changing before the change fully kicks in. However, given the ridiculously great weather we've had for all of july so far it doesn't take much thought to work out that it's likely to be cooler and more unsettled! in the more reliable (and not that i doubt England's ability with the ball...) i'm wondering if there is any prospect of the final day of the test being disrupted on monday? a bit of rain might be handy..... ECM and to a certain the GFS don't want to know....UKMO sticks out though: I think the likelihood is another completely dry test match, isn't it?

The ECM is consistently the best performer.

So verifiable statistics are "gibberish"? do you work for Radio 1 at all?

I completely agree that a "change" is afoot - Let's be honest, after glorious weather from the last weekend in June to what is going to be effectively the last knockings of July it's not really difficult or surprising to call/expect a "change", is it?The ECM won't be correct in the detail either - that's accepted. But the fact remains, statistically it IS better in terms of verification than any other model. Here the ECM and GFS are touting very different outcomes in the long term (worth noting that all of this is beyond the reliable) so we would be well advised to put additonal weighting on the ECM simply because of the mathematics.the result will probably end up being a slackish halfway house between the ECM and GFS with the ECM being nearer and no major longwave pattern change. The south always likely to hold on to any better weather after what has been, so far, a majestic summer down here.The trouble is that too many people want to see mobile westerlies establish - i don't know why especially, other than the fact some people just like them. This summer has suffered on the model thread due to an underlying current of agendas - i get the feeling that a few people haven't even noticed the weather so far in july because they've been glued to the computer screen trying to find low pressure moving in at t+192. This month has been incredible and interesting in it's own right (and will likely get more interesting).

isn't it foolhardy to post this without nodding to the fact that the ECM is statistically speaking the best performing model? Or are you one "those" that chooses just to "prefer" another model regardless of the facts?If people want to talk about form horses then the ECM has more chance of verifying than any other model simply because it is, unequivocally, the best the model. However, all that said, one can't ignore the other models general idea. I think a "change" is almost nailed - how it will manifest itself is another thing.One thing is certain - the GFS post t+ 192 won't verify. It never does. The theme might be close, the details won't be and when you live on an Island only 500 odd miles long the details are important - i think you need to try and understand this, draztik.

This chart from the ECM has surely got to hold some interest for most people?! *sorry Gavin, you beat me to it!*

just how it should be in summer!

I must admit, when i viewed the ECM this morning i thought "that doesn't look anywhere near as good as the last few runs" ?? It seems to handle the low pressure around southwest Iceland completely differently and it doesn't allow pressure to ridge in which in turn sees the trough drop southeast across the country. It does then introduce a brief bit of heat but then the high builds out to the west. UKMO looks better (although i'm never sure whether to trust it at t+144) and the GFS/GEM are both great. Is this just a "wobble" from the ECM or simply a "wobble" from me and my intepretation?

indeed. This time last week the GFS was touting this weekend was to be a repeat of last weekend with a dartboard low centred over the country. It gradually backed away from that (the ECM back away first) to show a better picture. So not wall to wall brilliance this weekend but much better than we may have had to endure. My waterbutt looks like remaining pretty much empty. Let's hope we don't see the reverse happen with the next week's scenario. I notice the met office 6 -15 day update is more promising today for the south and south east which reflects the current output. "To the southeast, whilst the occasional outbreak of rain or drizzle is still possible, drier, warmer and brighter conditions are expected to prevail. Here, maximum temperatures are expected to be above average during sunnier periods."

what's deceiving about the odd dodgy day and some days up to 24c in the south?! That's summer isn't it? I know what you mean, though. With a bit better luck we could have had a properly warm wider country event, so it is sort of second prize we're settling for. It's not a bad one though, in my opinion. The "collapse" from the northwest remains outside of the reliable timeframe and doesn't happen at all on the ECM (for the south, anyway). I think we should just enjoy what we've got this week (apart from the rainy bits) and see what happens.

it might not be wall to wall to high pressure but i'm finding it hard to be too disappointed with the outlook in the reliable timeframe (it helps that i'm in the south, obviously). GFS has temps of 22-24c in the south from Friday through to monday and we'll be in the low twenties for the best part of this week. Having just had a look at the charts for the end of june, first part of July last year i feel even happier with the output! That met office conference into unusual summer weather patterns seems to have triggered an outbreak in typical summer weather i.e. bits of sunshine, low twenties in the south, more unsettled in north and northwest.

The pattern next week looks like perfect "forum weather" to me. Not horrible enough (yet) to be greeted by billions of toys being thrown out of tiny cyber prams and not good enough for all the kitten-drowners to suddenly appear and start scrabbling frantically through the charts trying to find the breakdown and then posting all the charts that show it. Remember last year when every weekend was greeted with a massive, spiralling, dartboard low? I do, beacuse it wrote off about 80% of my fishing season. This hasn't been the case so far this year so it's almost comforting to see this weekend being written off, next week looking ok (while i'm at work) and then potentially (if the GFS operational at t+240 whatever with limited support from the ensembles is to be believed) a repeat the weekend after.