danm
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Posts posted by danm
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Scorcher yep May 2018 was a warm and sunny month. There were a few days where we had some big thunderstorms, mixed in with some very warm and sunny weather.
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7 minutes ago, Sherry said:
Looks like turning unsettled again pretty quickly
If we limit ourselves to the semi reliable timeframe and just look at the output over the next week, then there is lots of dry, sunny and increasingly warm weather on offer. Not much point worrying about the week of Monday 13th May at this stage.
Yes, turning unsettled at the very end of the ECM run, but before that lots of fine weather.
In fact, the UKMO shows it potentially warming up even further towards next weekend with a SE’rly air flow and some warmer uppers:
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Well that was a lovely day, loads of long sunny spells, 17c/18c. Much better than was feared.
Tomorrow also looking fairly decent. Some sunshine, a little patchy rain turning up late on in the south, temperatures around 17c-19c. Monday does look very showery though, before high pressure builds in properly Tuesday onwards.
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Considering this was meant to be a washout weekend, today looks largely fine in the south, lots of sunshine at the moment. Possibly a few isolated showers late afternoon. The forecast tomorrow for around here is 19c with sunny spells. I’ll be in Liverpool tomorrow where the forecast is very similar.
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Alderc 2.0 I haven’t seen anyone post those specific charts for any time period. We’ve been posting the pressure charts.
The charts you posted detailing where it may be cloudy or sunny, or where there may be some light rain this far out are pretty much useless.
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Alderc 2.0 those charts are utterly useless at this range.
Not sure what some people want - the output still looks largely excellent this morning.
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39 minutes ago, cheese said:
I’ve hardly paid any attention to the models recently so I’m not worrying over variation from one run to the next. I really think some people are secretly happiest when miserable
so true!
Well this is more like it!
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Jonnoramo87 is this a joke post?
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38 minutes ago, SunSean said:
I do find it bizarre that places in Scotland etc are consistently sunnier than South East places in these months lately. Wonder what the reason for this is?
Northern blocking, southerly tracking jet stream, and as a result, high pressure to the north of the UK, low pressure systems milling about at mid latitudes. A common set up at this time of year, but likely made worse by the SSW.
Although saying that, in April the wettest weather was actually across Cumbria, central and southern Scotland.
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Tomorrow and Sunday are looking at lot better than feared considering the trough that’s going to be over us. The south should have a much brighter, sunnier day with possibly just a few isolated showers. Sunday similar.
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This place needs some cheering up. So here’s the GFS just rolling out. Continuing to look very nice next week:
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In Absence of True Seasons to make you feel better, a large swathe of central and SE Europe, plus NW Iberia is under a thick band of cloud, raining too. Lots of heavy showers over France and heavy rain in northern Portugal and NW Spain.
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B87 don't know about those sites. Could be some other factor maybe?
From what i've read the CS sensors over estimate sunshine a little in hazy or broken cloud set ups.
The differences were both positive and negative with no pattern of occurrences. Comparing CS and CSD1 in England, Kerr and Tabony [24] found that the CS recorder overestimates the sunshine due to the spreading of the burn on the card. This occurs in cases when cloud cover is broken, and the sun is high in the sky.
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B87 I'd replied to the Met Office after they sent me the above about whether the old CS sensors slightly over-estimate the amount of sunshine. This is the reply I got this morning:
Thank you for your patience; we have received the below response from the relevant team;
"It is likely (as described in Legg 2014 Comparison of daily sunshine duration recorded by Campbell-Stokes and Kipp and Zonen sensors - Legg - 2014 - Weather - Wiley Online Library<https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2288>) that the earlier Campbell- Stokes sensor slightly overestimates the number of hours of sunshine measured. However, to ensure consistency in the long term series, adjustments are made to match the new observations type to the existing data. This allows the series to continue with good homogeneity allowing us to assess trends and long term changes."
Further details can be found within the paper itself.
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KTtom the Met Office app is notorious for that. Honestly, I'd pay very little attention to any app beyond a couple of days. They change constantly as they are dictated by raw model output, and their algorithms can sometimes be quite odd.
For example, the BBC weather app will always show as the headline symbol, the worst weather that is expected on a particular day, even if that weather is only expected for a very short period of time. E.g. if you had sunny spells all day, but a shower or two was expected over a one or two hour period, the symbol will show showers. I use the apps at most as a very tentative guide on the possible direction of travel. not what the weather is actually going to be like beyond a few days out.
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What's working against a record temperature is the wet ground. We'd need things to dry out substantially if we're going to break 40c again.
Other than that, however, it is just guess work. Saying it's likely to be dull because the past few months have been dull means nothing.
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Bristawl Si this band of rain has moved north so slowly today, definitely slower than forecast yesterday.
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SunnyG you sure you aren't actually a teenager?
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34 minutes ago, B87 said:
The sustained sunny spell that was due to happen has now been replaced by cloud in the forecast.
Where are you getting this from, an app? Weatheronline? These things are useless beyond the very short term.
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Alderc 2.0 are we looking for breakdowns now before the high pressure has even established itself? I get we've all had a rough 18 months and been burned before, but this is similar to people getting their winter snow but instead of going out and enjoying it, they complain about the thaw that's inevitably coming in 5 days time.
Who knows, this well modelled settling down next week could all go t**s up, or get watered down, time will tell, but people have been looking for signs of warmer, sunnier weather for ages. It's showing, as people have been hoping. Let's see what plays out and really not worry about a possible breakdown of the high pressure in 10 days time. We all know how reliable the models are at that range.
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55 minutes ago, SunnyG said:
What's the GFS like?
Just posted in the Mod thread, hard to complain about the runs for next week this morning. Every Op run is churning out a similar pattern. There will always be small variations in orientation etc.
A snapshot for mid next week:
GEM - pressure high, orientation decent, thicknesses high:
UKMO - very similar:
...as is the ECM...
GFS also quite similar, but yes on Tuesday/Wednesday the high is a little flimsier compared to previous Op runs, but it still gets to a very decent place:
The GFS mean for Wednesday looks good:
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SunnyG your location was at 20c+ on both Tuesday and Wednesday
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by danm
Sparkling morning. Looks like cloud will build this afternoon in the south. I’m off to Liverpool later where the sun will hang on for longer.