danm
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Posts posted by danm
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5 hours ago, reef said:
I don't think this weather is due to the SSW. If anything, its the lack of northern blocking or high pressure around the British Isles that has been the issue. We've spent months stuck under a trough dragging in mild Atlantic air. Only in the last week or so has it changed.
It has essentially been a continuation of the rubbish we've had for 10 months now. I would argue the SSW wasn't responsible and didn't really amount to much as there hasn't really been much of a pattern change. It basically fizzled to nothing and nothing changed!
I think the SSW helped to reinforce northern blocking, and has allowed a southerly tracking jet to persist for longer. We can never know for sure if it is due to the SSW, but the main reason we’ve had troughs milling about in the mid latitudes is due to northern blocking.
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Well at least the sun is out.
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Looking pretty decent for eastern areas tomorrow and Tuesday, some more showers breaking out on Wednesday. Then possible high pressure in charge for the weekend:
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Alderc 2.0 the Met Office also show 17c and sunny tomorrow:
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After the crud this weekend, I’ll happily take this for tomorrow:
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TwisterGirl81 much of the Mediterranean had a very wet spell last Spring and early Summer, due to the blocking high that gave so many western areas here dry and sunny weather last May, and our UK wide heat last June. The sub tropical jet ploughed through the Med right from Portugal to Greece. Many places down there had a very wet spell at that time.
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reef looks like much of central, northern and SE Europe had above average rainfall.
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The UKMO seems to back up the ECM with a nice weekend:
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37 minutes ago, SunnyG said:
I think people who believe we'll have a dry hot summer are gonna be very disappointed. This pattern is here to stay for medium term (I consider June/July as medium term). Maybe it'll change in August?
How can you know this? You can’t.
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42 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
Mind you the Met Office forecast for the whole of the London and South East area on Wednesday sounds very poor, no hint of 25C:
"Monday cold, dry and bright. Tuesday fog or low cloud gradually clearing then scattered showers. Wednesday outbreaks of rain or showers arriving, chance of coastal fog. Temperatures becoming mild."
Monday cold? Forecast is for 16c and dry with sunny spells. Warmer again from Tuesday but will likely be a mix of sunshine and some heavy showers.
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Well one positive is this wretched cold is going to disappear on Monday. Mid to high teens, possibly low 20’s in some favoured eastern spots coming up this week. The downside is that there will still be rain around, but in any sunshine it will feel much warmer.
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I remember Atlantic 252 the Met and BBC show the rain clearing away north and east by the afternoon.
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A bit of a discrepancy between the BBC and the Met Office for Monday. The Met has a lot more rain over western and northern areas than the BBC does. A reasonable day in the S/SE, 16c with sunny spells.
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14 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
I don't like what the models are chucking out!! 24c for London and NW and 14c for us!! stained glass window me! That will really hurt.
Where have you seen 24c for London but 14c for Winchester? Seems inconceivable. Winchester isn’t that far from London.
edit: just seen the chart posted above. Must be a cold front.
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Properly grotty morning today, damp, cold. But the models are looking a lot more promising this morning. Get some warmer air in during the upcoming week and then things hopefully look like settling down into the second week of May.
Monday and Tuesday also looks decent around these parts:
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SunnyG today has been surprisingly very nice. Lot's of sunshine all day.
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Summer8906 I suppose coastal Hampshire can be quite different to inland SE England, including London, at times. It's always cooler on the coast and if the wind is from the SW, you're always a little more likely to drag in some sea mist and low cloud from time to time.
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B87 undoubtedly better than some other Summers.
I’ve just gone back and looked at the records. July 2019 had 19 of the 31 days above 24c:
August was very similar, bar a brief cool and wet spell mid month:
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July 2019 had an average max of 25.5c and August was 25.3c in London. July had about average sunshine (slightly above for the SW), August was sunnier than average.
The Summer had loads of days in that warm to very warm category (24-28c) and then 8 days above 30c.
It was by no means a classic like 2018 and 2022, but was a very decent modern British Summer. Yes there were a couple of cooler and wetter spells, but we live in the UK, so that will happen in almost every Summer.
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2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
he middle two weeks of August were also pretty rubbish: cool, unsettled, breezy and damp, though apparently it wasn't so bad further east.
There was a wetter spell in the middle but that August started warm and ended hot.
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28 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:
I think I'd rather live through a combination of 1976, 2022 and 2003 than that dung heap of a summer again. Incredibly humid and warm to hot, ew.
2019 is one of those Summers I view as underrated. The only really poor spell was early June. You're right, it was quite humid but it was often warm, sometimes hot and there were decent amounts of sunshine.
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Turning into a much sunnier day than was forecast.
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11 minutes ago, SunSean said:
More chance of surviving a fall off the empire state building than that coming off but hey, we live in hope! Lol.
It will change at some point. Let's hope it's the second week of May!
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted